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- RNBZ cuts 25bps, more to come / FED pricing : 200bps of cuts price in by Dec 2025 / SPX500 testing 50dma+
U.S CPI ever so slightly softer than expected, 2.9% vs 3% expected >>> we already have over 2% of Fed cuts priced in till end of 2025!...with inflation 2.5-3.0% and real growth 2-3%...looks rather optimistic on total cuts? Economic conditions in China “are like a ‘harsh winter’ that will be ‘longer, colder and more difficult to endure than we expected ,’ China Baowu Steel Group Corp.chairman Hu Wangming told staff ..” Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk could be a turning point in history , just like the original 1943 battle - Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former UK & NATO CBRN commander writes in The Telegraph RBNZ cut 25bps to 5.25% , as broadly expected, 25bps more on each of the 3 meetings in 2024 likely, based on recent downward revisions to growth/inflation QUINNIPIAC polls Pennsylvania: “.. Trump scores poorly on most key character traits including empathy, but none so glaringly as honesty, where Harris leads by a large margin.” “She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed . And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House... I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.” Germany to Grant Police Right to ‘Secretly’ Search Homes: Media 8/14/24 - Pennsylvania 2024: Harris Has Slight Edge Over Trump In Tight Race, Gets Boost From Women, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Senate Race: Casey Up 8 Points Over McCormick | Quinnipiac University Poll Donald Trump needs someone to tell him the truth: He’s losing ( thehill.com ) RBNZ cuts cash rate by 25 basis points; lowers rate forecasts ( cnbc.com ) NEW Cook Political Report/BSG and GS Strategy Group poll Arizona Harris 46% Trump 42% Georgia Harris 46% Trump 46% Michigan Harris 46% Trump 44% Nevada Trump 47% Harris 42% North Carolina Harris 46% Trump 44% Pennsylvania Harris 48% Trump 43% Wisconsin Harris 48% Trump 43% World’s Top Steel Producer Warns of ‘Severe’ Industry Crisis - Bloomberg Hong Kong and China stocks jump after soft July economic data bolsters stimulus bets | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk could be a turning point in history, just like the original 1943 battle - Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former UK & NATO CBRN commander writes in The Telegraph. According to him, the current Ukrainian offensive will hurt Putin on many fronts: 🔹️ https://t.co/LZTMtEe5wA " / X Google could get broken up after losing DOJ's antitrust lawsuit ( qz.com ) Nord Stream: German arrest warrant for sabotage blast suspect - BBC News Stanley Druckenmiller trims holdings of ‘Magnificent Seven’ names - MarketWatch David Tepper's Strategic Moves in Q2 2024: A Deep Dive into NVIDIA's Significant Reduction ( yahoo.com ) End Tribalism in Politics on X: "Bernie Sanders explains how the government is ran by lobbyists: “Everybody knows you have a government dominated by big money interests.” “Do you know how many lobbyists there are in Washington, D.C. representing the big drug companies? 1800.” “So there are 100 members of the https://t.co/ulj3YIFmSC " / X Germany to Grant Police Right to ‘Secretly’ Search Homes: Media - Other Media news - Tasnim News Agency SPX - short again?
- Musk & Trump didn't go well / Harris lead up / 30y China turning / PPI slightly softer, U.S CPI up next
FED pricing update : 105bps of cuts priced into 2024. SPX500 50dma around here 5335 area ahead of CPI this afternoon, estimate 2.9%, still 'deflating'..? Musk & Trump : ‘The dumbest climate conversation of all time’: experts on the Musk-Trump interview. Trump loosing it. Trump talked about ‘nuclear warming’ while Musk said the only reason to quit fossil fuels is that their supply is finite. Advertisers are abandoning X in spades, Trump media down fair bit too.. New swing states poll : (by Independent Center) Wisconsin Harris 49% Trump 42% Michigan Harris 48% Trump 43% Pennsylvania Harris 49% Trump 45% Fed Bostic speak: Bostic said he’s looking for “a little more data” before supporting a reduction in interest rates , emphasizing he wants to be sure the US central bank will not have to change course once it begins cutting. “We want to be absolutely sure,” GS: Buybacks August to Sep buyback season is 2nd best of they year. Window for buybacks has now reopened with estimated $1.15 Trn worth of authorizations BOJ debated further rate hikes in July , prompting hawkish shift, so why is Japan’s BOJ risking to blow up the YEN carry trade and raising rates? >>> coz inflation has hit a 40 year high there as the currency has depreciated by 50% last few years.. Japanese consumers got crushed as they lose their buying power, chances are the crisis isn't over For the first time since Brexit, a UK government is explicitly saying that it would actively like to maintain alignment with new EU regulations #GBP UBS actively kicks out Swiss clients . UBS is massively increasing prices for those who no longer do business with the big bank China bond market bubble 30y yields.. #duration turning could turn other yields Goldman: US equity valuations have been and are still higher than the macro backdrop would normally suggest UK : real pay up, employment down, int rates generating some returns for savers, even global investors having a look at UK industries (GBP super low), and encouraging inflation data - not all that bad! Barron's: "#Buffett felt that the investment case for unloading the Apple stock was so compelling that he was willing to endure the tax consequences. Buffett essentially decided that he’d rather have cash equal to nearly 80% of the value of the Apple stake than the Apple stock." UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said investors should heed last week’s global selloff as a sign of “fragility in the system” The Dow jumps 250 points as wholesale inflation cools ( qz.com ) Why Harris ranks better on the economy than Trump (and Biden) ( yahoo.com ) Russian region declares state of emergency as Ukraine’s offensive causes chaos – POLITICO Iran's president tells Starmer retaliation against Israel 'is a right' ( msn.com ) BOJ debated further rate hikes in July, prompting hawkish shift ( msn.com ) Rising Pay, Falling Rates — Good News for UK Consumers - Bloomberg Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Very good piece by Robin Harding: "There is a bubble in the Chinese government bond market — or so, at least, the People’s Bank of China would fervently like to believe. A bubble would be a worrying risk to financial stability. The existence of..." https://t.co/yddvrQuz1n " / X and China Is in Denial About the War in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs ‘The dumbest climate conversation of all time’: experts on the Musk-Trump interview | Climate crisis | The Guardian ...yup... Donald Trump At Risk Of Losing Florida, Poll Suggests - Newsweek Trump Media stock hits new low after Donald Trump returns to X ( qz.com ) UAW Seizes on Donald Trump Praising Musk for Firing Workers - Bloomberg Product Safety and Metrology Bill a 'major post-Brexit moment' ( thelondoneconomic.com ) Steve Rosenberg on X: "There’s an Interesting opinion piece today in one of the (ultra) pro-Kremlin papers. It offers clues to how life inside Russia may change as a result of Ukraine’s Kursk offensive. #ReadingRussia https://t.co/uvdtO8ffqX " / X On-the-Record Press Gaggle by White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby | The White House Advertisers are abandoning X in spades ( thelondoneconomic.com ) Hardly surprising! UBS schmeisst Schweizer Kunden aktiv raus – Inside Paradeplatz US plots break-up of Google to address monopoly fears ( msn.com ) Swiss government explains recommended rejection of biodiversity initiative - SWI swissinfo.ch NZ police race to recover meth-laced sweets distributed by charity - BBC News !! Extreme heat warnings across southern Europe as August temperatures rise | The Independent Stay cool!
- Copy of Kursk offensive, Red Sea update / Trump rambling / Fed's RRP <$300bn / GOLD near all time highs / U.S PPI next
1y inflation exp from N ew-York Fed is down to 2.97% in July … lowest since November 2020 >>>> The median of these forecasts has the July core CPI up 0.19%, which would lower the 12-month rate to 3.2%, PPI next up later on Markets grinding higher as no retaliation in Iran, yet anyway, many threats but so far quiet.. Kursk offensive : Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi declared that Ukraine now controls around 1,000 km² of Russian territory. Kamala increasing her lead in the polls What did we learn from that interview ? In a rambling two-hour interview on X that was delayed by glitches, Trump also praised the leaders of China, Russia and North Korea as 'at the top of their game'-FT The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years #XAUUSD Barrick Gold excellent earnings report, $300M free cash flow and a huge buy back program >>> most gold companies will see big cash flows with gold around $2400+ JP Morgan notes that equities are no longer a one-way trade as debate opens up on the downside risk to growth . Where the market focus for 1H2024 was the path of inflation, 2H2024 is shaping up to be about risk. JP Morgan is forecasting a 50bps Fed rate cut in each of the September and November FOMC meetings, as well as one 25bps cut in December The much-feared American recession isn't coming, Bank of America chief says. Brian Moynihan warned of a dispirited consumer if the Federal Reserve doesn't cut rates soon. Goldman: We are tracking Q2 GDP growth at 2.5% and Q3 at 2.6%. "Solid final demand growth is one reason why we expect demand for workers to hold up and prevent significant further deterioration in the labor market." The Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) facility has dropped below $300 billion for the first time since 2021 . The RRP is one of the financial system's excess liquidity metrics and is widely watched by investors "Almost 90% of planned hydrogen plants have no buyers with contracts to use the fuel." UK labour market remains stronger than expected: unemployment rate fell from 4.4 per cent in the second quarter to 4.2 per cent - better than expected Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky says war ‘coming home’ to Putin as Kyiv controls 1,000 sq km in Kursk ( msn.com ) Red Sea: Ship targeted in latest suspected attack by Yemen's Iran-sponsored Houthis ( msn.com ) Technical analysis Bullish Gold eyeing new all time high Bottom reversal in Silver and Copper | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Is Donald Trump at Risk of Losing Ohio? What Polls Reportedly Show - Newsweek i morning briefing: What did we learn from Trump’s ‘interview’ with Musk? ( msn.com ) Trump rambles, slurs his way through Elon Musk interview. It was an unmitigated disaster. ( msn.com ) Elon Musk, Donald Trump event on X crashes site, Tesla CEO blames cyberattack ( cnbc.com ) Corridors of Power: Should America Police the World? - Series 1: 1. Iraq – For Every Insect There Is an Insecticide - BBC iPlayer great documentary series A U.S. recession isn't coming, Bank of America CEO Moynihan said ( qz.com ) Survey of Consumer Expectations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK ( newyorkfed.org ) Gold Revaluation Is More Responsible Money Creation Method ( moneymetals.com ) Why Almost Nobody Is Buying Hydrogen, Dashing Green Power Hopes - Bloomberg Brian Sullivan on X: "Albemarle stock worst in S&P 500 as lithium prices continue to crash. Production far outpacing demand growth along with gap b/w the 2 types of lithium needed for various batters (carbonate v. hydroxide) Piper Sandler note .. $ALB now down 58% in a year. https://t.co/zYZs63ROO4 " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has QUADRUPLED in 1.5 years. Delinquencies are currently rising at a faster pace than during the https://t.co/NrL19XxqsE " / X Barrick Gold (GOLD) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates ( yahoo.com ) Gold Demand Trends Q2 2024 | World Gold Council JetBlue Begins $2.75 Billion Debt Sale, Gets Two Downgrades ( yahoo.com ) more debt! Elon Musk’s Big Government Grift | The New Republic Swiss authorities call for ideas for clearing ammunition from lakes - SWI swissinfo.ch The Rest Is Politics on X: "Rory clashes with MP David Davis on Brexit 👀 Watch the full interview tomorrow at 6pm on the Leading YouTube channel https://t.co/rpvmGWt0Eh " / X
- Kursk offensive, Red Sea update / Trump rambling / Fed's RRP <$300bn / GOLD near all time highs / U.S PPI next
1y inflation exp from N ew-York Fed is down to 2.97% in July … lowest since November 2020 >>>> The median of these forecasts has the July core CPI up 0.19%, which would lower the 12-month rate to 3.2%, PPI next up later on Markets grinding higher as no retaliation in Iran, yet anyway, many threats but so far quiet.. Kursk offensive : Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi declared that Ukraine now controls around 1,000 km² of Russian territory. Kamala increasing her lead in the polls What did we learn from that interview ? In a rambling two-hour interview on X that was delayed by glitches, Trump also praised the leaders of China, Russia and North Korea as 'at the top of their game'-FT The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years #XAUUSD Barrick Gold excellent earnings report, $300M free cash flow and a huge buy back program >>> most gold companies will see big cash flows with gold around $2400+ JP Morgan notes that equities are no longer a one-way trade as debate opens up on the downside risk to growth . Where the market focus for 1H2024 was the path of inflation, 2H2024 is shaping up to be about risk. JP Morgan is forecasting a 50bps Fed rate cut in each of the September and November FOMC meetings, as well as one 25bps cut in December The much-feared American recession isn't coming, Bank of America chief says. Brian Moynihan warned of a dispirited consumer if the Federal Reserve doesn't cut rates soon. Goldman: We are tracking Q2 GDP growth at 2.5% and Q3 at 2.6%. "Solid final demand growth is one reason why we expect demand for workers to hold up and prevent significant further deterioration in the labor market." The Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) facility has dropped below $300 billion for the first time since 2021 . The RRP is one of the financial system's excess liquidity metrics and is widely watched by investors "Almost 90% of planned hydrogen plants have no buyers with contracts to use the fuel." UK labour market remains stronger than expected: unemployment rate fell from 4.4 per cent in the second quarter to 4.2 per cent - better than expected Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky says war ‘coming home’ to Putin as Kyiv controls 1,000 sq km in Kursk ( msn.com ) Red Sea: Ship targeted in latest suspected attack by Yemen's Iran-sponsored Houthis ( msn.com ) Technical analysis Bullish Gold eyeing new all time high Bottom reversal in Silver and Copper | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Is Donald Trump at Risk of Losing Ohio? What Polls Reportedly Show - Newsweek i morning briefing: What did we learn from Trump’s ‘interview’ with Musk? ( msn.com ) Trump rambles, slurs his way through Elon Musk interview. It was an unmitigated disaster. ( msn.com ) Elon Musk, Donald Trump event on X crashes site, Tesla CEO blames cyberattack ( cnbc.com ) Corridors of Power: Should America Police the World? - Series 1: 1. Iraq – For Every Insect There Is an Insecticide - BBC iPlayer great documentary series A U.S. recession isn't coming, Bank of America CEO Moynihan said ( qz.com ) Survey of Consumer Expectations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK ( newyorkfed.org ) Gold Revaluation Is More Responsible Money Creation Method ( moneymetals.com ) Why Almost Nobody Is Buying Hydrogen, Dashing Green Power Hopes - Bloomberg Brian Sullivan on X: "Albemarle stock worst in S&P 500 as lithium prices continue to crash. Production far outpacing demand growth along with gap b/w the 2 types of lithium needed for various batters (carbonate v. hydroxide) Piper Sandler note .. $ALB now down 58% in a year. https://t.co/zYZs63ROO4 " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has QUADRUPLED in 1.5 years. Delinquencies are currently rising at a faster pace than during the https://t.co/NrL19XxqsE " / X Barrick Gold (GOLD) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates ( yahoo.com ) Gold Demand Trends Q2 2024 | World Gold Council JetBlue Begins $2.75 Billion Debt Sale, Gets Two Downgrades ( yahoo.com ) more debt! Elon Musk’s Big Government Grift | The New Republic Swiss authorities call for ideas for clearing ammunition from lakes - SWI swissinfo.ch The Rest Is Politics on X: "Rory clashes with MP David Davis on Brexit 👀 Watch the full interview tomorrow at 6pm on the Leading YouTube channel https://t.co/rpvmGWt0Eh " / X
- Aug market madness / UKR-RU, Israel-Iran-ME risk of retaliation / Harris leads Trump on economy / U.S CPI key on Wed
After a volatile July, we got a wild start to August, as expected! S&P 500 index fell over 6% & Nikkei 225 index recorded a more dramatic 20% decline, as #VIX pretty much halved between Monday and Friday, both indices recovered about half of these losses, main market focus – Hard or Soft landing? the debate will continue, employment data is slowly getting worse, consumers are tapped out on debt, inflation is hurting...This week,. main data focus will be US CPI on Wed and Retail Sales Thursday UKR preparing for retaliation following incursion in Kursk region, while in Middle East, Iran threatens response, all out war etc, which has been down played by Israel, though many putting a higher probability of an Israel military action against Iran in August, beware South Korea and the U.S. will start their annual joint military exercises, Ulchi Freedom Shield, from August 19-29, focusing on enhancing capabilities against North Korean nuclear threats Tech Stocks just had their worst monthly performance relative to the S&P 500 in 22 years. But before this, they had their best month in 20 years. Absolutely wild!! Harris leads Trump on economy in poll that marks sharp sentiment shift US Election : Vice President Kamala Harris said she would respect the Federal Reserve’s independence , seeking to draw a contrast with her 2024 Republican rival Donald Trump, and that she plans to roll out elements of her economic agenda in the coming week APOLLO: “.. there are still no signs of a US recession , and the US economy is doing just fine with steady growth in .. restaurant bookings, air travel, hotel bookings, credit card data .. “In short, Fed pricing is wrong, and the market is making the same mistake it made at the beginning of the year.” [Slok] Container shipping costs from China have spiked to their highest levels since 2022 Bank of Japan owns ~80% of the country's ETFs and 7% of the entire Japanese stock market , according to Morningstar and the Tokyo Stock Exchange data! Uber CEO Is skeptical about Elon Musk’s Robotaxi idea The AI trade is losing its luster - or is it ? probably - after huge capex spending, and more to come into 2025, earnings must follow, #showqmethemoney time BofA Merrill Lynch "Base case remains: Buy the dip, stay in the market, elections matter, but economic growth and Earnings matter more..." #GOOG - FT/can anyone stop Google's illegal monopoly ? China's 30-year Bond Yield drops to an all-time low of 2.33% Humiliating blow for Putin as Russia's bloody war against Ukraine is brought far closer to home | World News | Sky News US deploys guided missile submarine to Middle East as Iran holds military drills following death of Hamas leader ( msn.com ) Israel-Hamas war latest: Leaders of France, Germany and Britain endorse calls for cease-fire in Gaza ( msn.com ) 'Too early to tell' if jobs slowdown amounts to 'real weakness': Fed's Daly ( yahoo.com ) Can anyone stop Google’s illegal monopoly? ( ft.com ) The AI trade is losing its luster ( yahoo.com ) Kamala Harris is more trusted than Donald Trump on the US economy ( ft.com ) Harris responds to Trump Fed comments; readies economic policy plan ( cnbc.com ) He's loosing it Trump falsely claims that Kamala Harris crowds are AI fakes ( telegraph.co.uk ) Taiwan Says Power Issues Prevent New Large Data Centers in North - Bloomberg Uber highlights autonomous vehicle efforts now that Tesla's in its rearview mirror ( yahoo.com ) #Madness Barchart on X: "Tech Stocks just had their worst monthly performance relative to the S&P 500 in 22 years. But before this, they had their best month in 20 years. Absolutely wild!! https://t.co/gx4t2LPsvg " / X UK inflation rate set to rise again ( thetimes.com ) Carl Quintanilla on X: "APOLLO: “.. there are still no signs of a US recession, and the US economy is doing just fine with steady growth in .. restaurant bookings, air travel, hotel bookings, credit card data .. “In short, Fed pricing is wrong, and the market is making the same mistake it made at the https://t.co/0LncFNCob7 " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Container shipping costs from China have spiked to their highest levels since 2022. Since the beginning of 2024, shipping rates have more than TRIPLED. It now costs ~$9,000 to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to New York and ~$8,000 to Los Angeles. This has https://t.co/2iNEUfrqw3 " / X gmo_concentrate---is-it-like-2000-again_8-24.pdf A reckoning is coming for Florida's condo owners as buildings face millions in repairs ( yahoo.com ) TSMC's sales surge 45% in July due to strong AI chip demand ( qz.com ) Stellantis plans to lay off up to 2,450 workers making the Ram 1500 ( qz.com ) OneCoin fraud: UK's first crypto-related class action obtains freezing order – The Armchair Trader Trump campaign confirms it was hacked after POLITICO received internal documents from "Robert" - POLITICO
- U.S claims <233k / Carry trade, more details / Trump wants to run the FED! debate with Harris set for 10th Sep / UKR pushing / Musk ? / U.S CPI key next week now
Markets have their best day since Nov 2022, so no rate cuts needed anymore ? Price action : m aybe, maybe some green shoots of hope for the bulls ...JPM's Andrew Tyler writes: "...if we use the MOC as a proxy, we saw consecutive days of more than $7bn decline to $2.5bn. Obviously, there is more to market structure than this, but it may mean the magnitude is decreasing", though worth noting VIX no lower (yet anyway) on a nearly 150 handle rally on SPX yesterday (just a tech bounce from oversold?), VIX near 24 level... implies a 1.5% daily SPX move Harris and Trump agree on 10th Sep debate on ABC ''I could run the Federal Reserve better, claims Donald Trump'' good grief, just imagine this scenario Pro-Kyiv forces stormed into Russia's southwestern Kursk region on Tuesday morning, deploying around 1,000 troops and more than two dozen armoured vehicles and tanks, according to the Russian army US and other frustrated mediators call on Israel, Hamas to resume Gaza talks, saying, 'no excuses' UBS estimates the cumulative dollar-yen carry trade size at about $500bn and that about $200bn of those positions had been ditched over the past few weeks and According to Deutsche Bank, the Yen carry trade amounts to a whopping $20 trillion, or 505% of Japanese GDP based on Japan’s government balance sheet assets and liabilities mix. US weekly jobless claims came in at 233,000, down from a revised 250,000 -- a relief after last week's unemployment and growth scare, so no more rate cuts.. Elon Musk accused Twitter’s leadership of tipping the scales politically. But now he’s doing just that with X, he has created his own little personal political playground.. and it didn't take : Elon Musk shares fake news about England rioters being sent to Falklands - unacceptable Ugly 30y UST auction, the worst since November '23, tailing WI by 3.1bp at 4.314% U.S. Credit Card Debt Hits All-Time High of $1.14 Trillion Michael Pettis / Will Technology Differentiate China Today from Japan in the 1990s? Ignoring the problems of its historical precedents won’t make China’s success any more likely I could run the Federal Reserve better, claims Donald Trump ( thetimes.com ) What could possibly go wrong here.. US and other frustrated mediators call on Israel, Hamas to resume Gaza talks, saying, 'no excuses' ( msn.com ) Zelensky Says Russia Must Feel the War as Ukraine Presses Attack ( kyivpost.com ) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Russian intelligence knew about the preparations for operation in Kursk region but Russian General Staff ignored those reports and hid information from Putin. The Kremlin is now very unhappy with Gerasimov - Bloomberg, citing a source close to Kremlin. https://t.co/wCHkhWEQqX https://t.co/vA6qqvoH9C " / X Venezuela: Nicolás Maduro bans X for 10 days over Elon Musk row ( bbc.com ) Will Technology Differentiate China Today from Japan in the 1990s? - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Unwinding of yen ‘carry trade’ still threatens markets, say analysts ( ft.com ) Unwinding of yen ‘carry trade’ still threatens markets, say analysts. Resurgent Japanese currency forces speculators to shut down years’ worth of bets that could run into billions of dollars + Japan's $20 trn 'carry trade' poses risks amid central bank's policy shift | Economy & Policy News - Business Standard ( business-standard.com ) US weekly jobless claims fall more than expected in latest week ( msn.com ) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Ugly 30y UST auction, the worst since November '23, tailing WI by 3.1bp at 4.314% - PD: 19.2% the highest since Nov '23 and 2nd highest since Dec '21 - Btc: 2.31 the 2nd lowest since Nov '23 - Directs: 15.5% the lowest since Feb - Indirects: 65.3% slightly below the 6-auc avg" / X The infrastructure moves bringing the US closer to lithium-ion self-sufficiency - Financial Times - Partner Content by Syensqo ( ft.com ) Trump and Harris agree to ABC presidential debate ( cnbc.com ) Analysis of Trump's Speech Finds Signs of Cognitive Decline ( msn.com ) The Rest Is Politics on X: "🗣️ “There’s no doubt social media has had a role.” Watch the full episode with @campbellclaret and @RoryStewartUK ⬇️ https://t.co/J7lesuUuCn https://t.co/DUjspFnLgF " / X Harris' VP pick Tim Walz doesn't own a single stock ( axios.com ) Elon Musk Has Turned X Into His Personal Political Playground | WIRED Elon Musk shares fake news about England rioters being sent to Falklands | Elon Musk | The Guardian More than half of new cars sold in China are now electric or hybrid ( cnbc.com ) Rheinmetall CEO Says Arms Boom Is the Biggest He’s Ever Seen - Bloomberg Microsoft, Palantir will sell AI to U.S. defense, intelligence agencies ( qz.com ) Weight-loss drug powers Lilly results, 2024 forecast raised by $3 billion ( msn.com ) Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX to pay over 12 billion to creditors ( qz.com ) Thiam gnadenlos: Rekurs gegen Freispruch von Haushälterin – Inside Paradeplatz
- #WPP #SMCI #INTC Ai 'disappointments', WS too bullish on highs / GS : credit spreads breaking up / RBA 'hawkish'
Of course it will change many things in the world..... but Wall Street got very bullish on Ai last 3-4nonths and price action/momentum pushed these markets to extremes, upgrades after upgrades, now we are in the phase of 'show me the money-earnings', after huge capex spent (and more to come to 2025), earnings are not following as quickly as markets hoped. ... Another example here : WPP one of the world's biggest ad business, should have massive cost benefits from AI, but downgrades 2024 profit outlook U. S : Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year Novo Nordisk isn't selling as much Wegovy and Ozempic as expected As Bloomberg notes, "China’s export engine, vital for keeping the country’s growth target of around 5% within reach, is now threatened by signs of sagging US demand." A decade long dispute between Coca Cola and the U.S tax authorities has escalated to the point that it could owe $16bn in back taxes Global wind capacity will more than double by 2030 (but it’s a shortfall) GS: Spreads have now broken out of their recent range $LQD $HYG - At 5.1%, the yield on the US IG index is near the lows since August 2022, 11% of credit card balances in the US are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest in over a decade If Japan can't even hike rates off ZERO without breaking the system, then why on earth would anyone want to own a long duration sovereign bon from any govt really (own not trade..) >>> Another ugly 10YR US Treasury auction yesterday - Tail over 3 bps, flight to safety ? Copper prices are down nearly 20% now from the top BofA: A reminder that asset prices don’t always go up, wealth effects can cut both ways. #INTC now trading at prices not seen since March 2014 (dividend adjusted) RBA : Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has vowed the RBA “will not hesitate” to hike interest rates to avoid exposing Australians to prolonged high inflation Harris running mate Gov. Tim Walz owns no stocks, bonds or real estate, disclosure shows Tension with Lebanon ‘may escalate into war,' Israel's defense minister says The 30-year fix mortgage rate fell to 6.55% last week ( qz.com ) To cut or not to cut Hey, Jerome Powell: Please don’t cut interest rates ( msn.com ) Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again - Q3 2024 | Saxo Bank ( home.saxo ) Harris running mate Tim Walz owns no stocks, bonds, real estate ( cnbc.com ) Tension with Lebanon ‘may escalate into war,' Israel's defense minister says | News ( yenisafak.com ) Tense Israel in waiting as attack threat looms | Reuters Unwinding of yen ‘carry trade’ still threatens markets, say analysts ( ft.com ) My humble guess is we are half way through the carry unwind - no-one really knows exactly ‘Hurts everyone’: RBA’s rate rise warning ( msn.com ) China confirms the discovery of a major natural gas field in the South China Sea | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Coca-Cola’s mysterious tax formula ( ft.com ) Tier1 Alpha on X: "1/ An Important Thread On Volatility 🧵 Two days after the largest single-day intraday increase in $VIX in history, we had one of the biggest vol declines in history. Predictably, $SPX rallied. But let's be clear, this event has likely changed the calculus on many strategies. https://t.co/QNYonXiz3g " / X Microsoft says Delta ignored offers to help during tech outage ( qz.com ) Google antitrust: Microsoft’s 1998 case offers clues on what's next ( qz.com ) Novo Nordisk's Wegovy misses sales expecations ( qz.com ) WPP downgrades forecasts on global uncertainty despite FGS sale ( ft.com ) WPP one of the world's biggest ad business, should have massive cost benefits from AI, but downgrades 2024 profit outlook, just not happening at the speed the mkt wants .............WPP is also investing more in AI tools, as well as services to clients based on data and technology to deliver advertising campaigns that are cheaper, faster and more targeted towards individual consumers. The group is committing an investment of £250mn every year in AI-driven technology...... in fact you could argue...it may be making their cost base worse rather than better$.... AI tools in advertising should deliver instantly to be honest Another disappointment for markets SMCI misses Q4 earnings, tops revenue guidance estimates ( yahoo.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/12 As Bloomberg notes, "China’s export engine, vital for keeping the country’s growth target of around 5% within reach, is now threatened by signs of sagging US demand." We must however think about the consequences systemically, and not incrementally. https://t.co/1P81y8C8RQ " / X Global wind capacity will more than double by 2030 (but it's a shortfall) | Electrek
- FED Sep pricing 40bps / BoJ already backtracking / Harris picks Walz / Nature of JPY carry trades / UST auctions next
FED pricing is back to about 40bps for Sep, went as high as 60bps or so on Monday, BoJ 'admitting' they wouldn't hike anymore if markets are volatile/unstable, not a good sign really, decent JPY (USDJPY highs 148 and now resistance-previous support..) & Nikkei squeeze overnight, it remains a relatively volatile market, most opinion will change daily...depending on price action...stay cool focus on your own risk management >>> US Treasury auctions (3-, 10-, 30-year) are key as yields hit the lowest since Dec 2023 Markets will remain volatile intra-day for a while , so long as VIX remains 20+ (it's not dead near 12-13 anymore..), the market is still highly leveraged, many 'real money' didn't do much on Monday/Tuesday, if VaR's remain high, expect better Eq sellers' on rallies, reducing risk on owned positions Harris' pick of Walz amps up excitement in Midwestern states where Democrats look to heal divisions Saudi Aramco to pay $31B in dividend despite declining profit - see below SunPower, once a venerated name in the US solar industry, has filed for bankruptcy , in 2021 , at the peak of the ESG bubble, SunPower was worth >9 billion #APPL Buffet got out for many reasons, including this one : Google antitrust ruling may pose $20 billion risk for Apple #GOOG #NOVO after huge rally YTD - another darling stock struggling after missing estimate Police are braced for riots in at least 30 locations today after more than a week of violence across the UK Mercedes-Benz EQE Fire Incident Raises Questions About Chinese EV Battery Safety #JPY : the nature of carry trades : they go up on the escalator and down the elevator...always Asia stocks buoyant, yen slumps after BOJ talks down rate hikes ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris ends the 'veepstakes,' picks Minnesota's Tim Walz ( qz.com ) Harris' pick of Walz amps up excitement in Midwestern states where Democrats look to heal divisions ( msn.com ) S&P Global's Dan Yergin: 'Quite striking' oil markets haven't preemptively priced in Mideast tension ( cnbc.com ) Thousands of police braced for day of riots as Elon Musk fans flames with tirade against Starmer | The Independent he's struggling, so he's spreading propaganda, and suing other companies for not spending on his platform.. 'It's war': X sues companies for not advertising on its platform ( msn.com ) ... Taste of thimgs to come in US in November.. whatever the outcome.. . UK Riots: Elon Musk’s X Drove Lies Right Through a UK Loophole - Bloomberg Javier Blas on X: "Saudi Aramco keeps its quarterly dividend (important for the government’s finances) at $31 bn, well above its free cash flow of $19 bn. Aramco is depleting its cash reserves to keep Mohammed bin Salman’s spending plans on track. At some point, a dividend cut is coming | #OOTT https://t.co/N4S22uQzj7 " / X and here Saudi Aramco to pay $31B in dividend despite declining profit ( msn.com ) Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ on X: "Grab a cup of coffee, you won't want to miss this Many are speculating that this week's sell off in the market is due to Bank of Japan's unexpected large interest rate hike which led to a massive unwinding of the yen carry trade Let's breakdown exactly happened 🧵: https://t.co/Kew8T5zntz " / X and What is the yen carry trade and why does it matter now? – The Armchair Trader >>> bottom line, a combination of events, suddenly triggers an overconfident and overleveraged markets, which said for months that nothing wrong can happen/it's all good, and suddenly it does.. it always comes along over the years, always, when markets get overly confident, nature of carry trades : they go up on the escalator and down the elevator...always SunPower files for bankruptcy, enters stalking horse asset purchase deal with Complete Solaria ( msn.com ) Google antitrust loss puts 25% of search revenue at stake ( qz.com ) SMCI misses Q4 earnings, tops revenue guidance estimates ( yahoo.com ) Palantir CEO Alex Karp Warns Of Severe 'Violent Interactions' In Middle East, Reaffirms Support For Israel — Stock Surges Over 12% In After-Hours Trading ( msn.com ) Novo Nordisk’s sales disappoint as bottlenecks hit weight loss drugs boom ( ft.com ) Mercedes-Benz EQE Fire Incident Raises Questions About Chinese EV Battery Safety - Businesskorea Izabella Kaminska on X: "🧵Aside from the headline news, today’s Russian prisoner swap seems to me to include a potentially involuntary limited hangout by the US. It pertains to the release of Vladislav Klyushin and what that suggests about how spies and spy agencies really fund themselves. The official" / X Uk riots live updates: Police brace for at least 30 riots today ( telegraph.co.uk ) we could go back to 148 area, markets on high vols now #USDJPY
- Key ISM services up in June & GS upped Q3 U.S GDP / VIX (always the key) from 60 to 30 leads turn around / N225 +10% off y'days lows / Breathe, but vol to remain elevated
Berkshire (after his AAPL sales in Q2) now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public , Buffet owns ~$277bn and the Fed has $190bn ISM Services : index rebounded to 51.4 in July (48.8 in June) , business activity, new orders, and employment ticked up >>> kicked yesterday's recovery in equity off lows (U.S shor-term rates well off yesterdays lows, 2s inversion curve etc, together with wall street officials calling for rate cuts, which pushed VIX back down to current levels from 60+ near yesterday U.S opening levels. N225 10pct of lows yesterday, VIX around 30, markets will remain somewhat volatile >>> A trading market!! no need to be married with any particular short-term views!! sentiment/VIX/SOFR can change very quickly Goldman: We boosted our U.S Q3 GDP forecast to +2.6% Anoher example, that a NIKKEI index (can) trade like a small cap, down and up 10pct within 24-36hours #riskmanagement >>> so far it's all been about equity risk, very little about #credit which should really be (at least part of) the focus Cryptoverse: Trump's bitcoin stockpile plan stirs debate AUTHERS: “.. The Fed will not want to admit an error, or risk causing panic, by cutting fed funds before its next scheduled meeting in September , so life looks likely to be tough for a while. .. The concern should be whether such a sudden downdraft will create leveraged losses that could cause a cascade.” Elon Musk’s misinformation machine made the horrors of Southport/UK much worse #BTC a reminder that it is just another risky, leveraged asset, that still isn't a currency, still isn't a payment system nor a store of value.. . The great 'halving' story and new ETF entries with institutional money was the top of the story last 3months... >>> at the end of the day, long crypto, is long excess liquidity and in reality short vol/VIX etc Rio Tinto-backed start-up seeks funds for lithium breakthrough to cut reliance on China . Analysts say new techniques could double production of key battery material and have similar impact to shale on oil sector #GOOG Google just lost the biggest tech antitrust case in decades Trading platforms return after going down amid global stock turmoil, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, and TD Ameritrade, all suffered from technical issues, some lasted hours yesterday SPX Forward PE’s still close to 22, cheaper but not a cheap market Cryptoverse: Trump's bitcoin stockpile plan stirs debate ( msn.com ) >>> stories doing the rounds lately, fits nicely with MMT debasement stories about Trump, policies on steroids. Vance ( Rebekah Mercer's man) appointed as his official puppet ISM Services PMI Moves Back Into Expansion Territory In July | Seeking Alpha This was THE key on the day to kick start a bounce-change very short-term sentiment Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: ""Wild" doesn't come close to describing what happened to the VIX today: After spiking to 66 this morning from below 20, it halved intra-day and is now settling just above 30. #economy #markets #econtwitter https://t.co/ngJ8wYH2vo " / X Global stock market rout sends Wall Street's 'fear index' soaring ( qz.com ) The Fed is trying to 'fight a ghost' as recession fears mount ( cnbc.com ) Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says jobs data weak but not necessarily recessionary ( msn.com ) Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and other trading platforms are down ( qz.com ) How can big data reduce shipping emissions? - Financial Times - Partner Content by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines ( ft.com ) Nvidia stock is tanking after reports of an AI chip design flaw ( qz.com ) Still up 100pct on the year though! Office of the Attorney General closes its criminal investigation against Glencore International AG with a summary penalty order and an abandonment order ( bundesanwaltschaft.ch ) NO appeal from GLEN, so final ruling Rio Tinto-backed start-up seeks funds for lithium breakthrough to cut reliance on China ( ft.com ) Google loses biggest tech antitrust case since Microsoft's in the 1990s ( qz.com ) CrowdStrike pushing back on Delta's response to IT outage ( qz.com ) Elon Musk’s misinformation machine made the horrors of Southport much worse ( prospectmagazine.co.uk ) Elon should....keep quiet Bangladesh updates: PM Hasina resigns amid massive protests ( msn.com ) Tropical storm Debby live updates: Six killed after storm makes landfall in Florida as hurricane ( msn.com ) NIKKEI
- #JPY carry unwinds V rapidly, NIKKEI gives up YTD gains, when VaR doubles = reduce risk / FED pricing for 2024 is now near 120bps !
#JPY matters, worse scenario - fastest unwind that I lived through was October 1998 Japan's stock market, the Nikkei 225, is currently set to post its largest 2-day drop in history, Japan’s world-beating rally YTD wiped out over just a couple of days, stairs up, elevator down >>> JPY carry unwind happens fast, in days rather than months, always #margincalls etc, market never learns >>> once again, it piled in LONG mainly QQQ, NIKKEI, Ai and any other possible stories + short vol of course and short JPY, all reversed/reversing rapidly, this marekt dislocation will represent great opportunities over next few weeks The Federal Reserve is essentially saying that the U.S. shot itself in the foot with its export controls on China (which was illustrated by Intel's recent staff layoffs), and similarly to Russian sanctions, they didn't quite hurt as the West thought they would Hertz accelerates sales of Tesla vehicles as value crumbles The 10-Year Note Yield just posted its largest weekly drop since the 2008 Financial Crisis, falling 40 basis points last week Berkshire Hathaway sold more stock last quarter than any other quarter in its entire history ($75bn). Now, Buffett is sitting on a record $277bn cash, after selling 50% stake in AAPL The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran has rejected US and Arab efforts to 'temper its response' and that it had 'told Arab diplomats it didn’t care if the response triggered a war' Nvidia is reportedly in the DOJ antitrust hot seat , oh dear and the entire world is long of it... Auto loan and credit card delinquencies ... highest since 2011 #USDMXN Mexico another country with a 7% deficit of annual GDP Now adjusting and following markets... JPMorgan and Citi now predict that the Fed will cut rates by 50 bps in September, 50 bps in November, 25 in December.... >>>>>>>> which is NDEARLY ALL PRICED in already BofA’s Hartnett Says Sell Stocks at the Fed’s First Rate Cut ( yahoo.com ) Nvidia is reportedly in the DOJ antitrust hot seat ( msn.com ) Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public… Buffett has ~$277 Billion. The Fed has $195 Billion. Warren Buffett is now a larger holder of US Treasury Bills than the Federal Reserve. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway halves stake in Apple ( ft.com ) Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast ( natesilver.net ) Hertz accelerates sales of Tesla vehicles as value crumbles | Electrek Iran said to dismiss US, Arab nations’ calls for restraint even if it sparks war ( msn.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "More calls from Chinese economists for less infrastructure spending and more household transfers, in this case Mao Zhenhua: "I think the efficiency of directing funds to infrastructure spending is low, while the benefits of giving it directly to residents is high and will have a" / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The Sahm Rule recession indicator surged to 0.53 in July from 0.43, suggesting the US economy is in a recession. The Sahm Rule signals a downturn once the unemployment rate increases 0.5 percentage points above its previous 12-month low. After the unemployment rate https://t.co/LUrHjaii2q " / X Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK ( newyorkfed.org ) They also highlight that "the benefits of U.S. export controls, namely denying China access to advanced technology, may be limited as a result of Chinese strategic behavior. Indeed, there is evidence that, following U.S. export controls, China has boosted domestic innovation and self-reliance, and increased purchases from non-U.S. firms that produce similar technology to the U.S.-made ones subject to export controls." In other words, it's almost a pure loss for US firms who lose customers, revenue and market capitalization whereas the affected Chinese firms find alternative suppliers and China boosts its domestic innovation and self-reliance. Intel suffers one of its worst days in 40 years as stock plunges 26%, loses $30M in market value after earnings miss ( msn.com ) this was in May .. . US revokes Intel, Qualcomm's export licenses to sell to China's Huawei, sources say | Reuters
- BoJ, FOMC, BoE today & ECB Sep recap / #USDJPY / #SPX #QQQ market swings unreal, huge July rotation, same in Aug ? / Happy Yorkshire ! and Swiss national day
UN Security Council countries express alarm over risk of all-out Middle East war FOMC modestly dovish, depending on how you slice it , 25bps coming in Sep and pall priced in for a while, markets more than dovish than the actual statement. BoJ cut as we all know, nothing till next April now...might be time to TP on JPY longs.. BoE up next today, a little more than a 50/50 chance of a cut, finally Eurozone July inflation gave the #ECB no green light to cut in Sept yet, but markets still price 96% probability for another 25bps ECB cut ADP says 122,000 jobs added in July . Smallest gain in six months points to weaker labor market, NFP tomorrow so let's see. #OpenAI Touts New AI Safety Research. Critics Say It’s a Good Step, but Not Enough >>> AI company recommends more AI to solve AI's problems .. Project 2025 director steps down amid Trump campaign criticism Rio Tinto reaches ‘inflection point’ as growth projects boost prospects. Chief executive refuses to rule out looking at large takeovers as copper and aluminium gains offset weaker iron ore EU firms resist European Commission plan to screen private investment in China BOJ : finally moved. Nomura now assumes another rate hike in April 2025 as their main scenario . An additional rate hike is now likely at the April 2025 MPM, and they see near-term downside risks for yen-crosses SPX bounced right on that massive trend line >>now above the 50 day again.... and month-end flows pushed short-term signals to overbought already, the market cap swings (down and up) previous 48hours been the largest EVER i believe...totally insane GOLD : highest monthly close ever Crude up, middle concerns #USDJPY go back few weeks ago, we discussed possible target 148-150 USDJPY and equivalents in crosses, we got that overnight, if you been riding on long JPY side, never hurts to take some P #GBPUSD breaking down through key support 1.2800 area, 1.25 again? - #EURUSD similar picture, all oin all CROSSJPY's should struggle to rally Middle East tensions: Funeral held for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh | News UK Video News | Sky News UN Security Council countries express alarm over risk of all-out Middle East war ( msn.com ) ADP says 122,000 jobs added in July. Smallest gain in six months points to weaker labor market. - MarketWatch Fed's Powell rejects idea politics has any bearing on policy choices ( msn.com ) -Unch for the 8th time, no rate cuts until confident inflation is moving to 2% -Inflation eased but remains 'somewhat elevated', although 'some progress' made -risks on both side of the dual mandate, employment rate has moved up but still low -Is a Sep cut nailed on ? point is its already priced in Nick Timiraos on X: "Takeaways from the July FOMC: The bar to cut in September seems quite low based on everything Powell said at the presser -Policy looks more restrictive now than it did earlier this year. -The recent inflation news is better than last year's swift decline because it is more" / X Quarterly Refunding Statement of Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Josh Frost | U.S. Department of the Treasury >>> more bills Buffett cuts Bank of America stake, sales top $3 bln | Reuters something to be concerned about ? U.S. will exempt some allies from trade rule aimed at China ( qz.com ) Market Interest on X: "BoJ and #USDJPY TLDR of the BoJ meeting is a cautious hike. They committed to do more if the economy improved as projected, but this relates to the risks the forecast (upside) rather than actual projections, which look flattish. Hence, cautious. It's worth noting that the JGB https://t.co/uuSMJWJrVT " / X Xi’s Embrace of Italy PM Meloni Shows China Has Use for Friends in Europe - Bloomberg EU firms resist European Commission plan to screen private investment in China | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Voices: Rachel Reeves’ urinal problem is about much more than a toilet... ( msn.com ) Rio Tinto reaches ‘inflection point’ as growth projects boost prospects ( ft.com ) OpenAI Touts New AI Safety Research. Critics Say It’s a Good Step, but Not Enough | WIRED Project 2025 Director Steps Down From Heritage Foundation - Newsweek Trump on Harris: 'Is she Indian or is she black?' ( bbc.com ) lost the plot? SPX500 - fade it again ?
- Middle East : tensions escalating / #TSLA / #JOLTS / BoJ hikes to 0.25% as exp. / #Mag7 <50dma / FOMC next
Japan’s central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate to “around 0.25%” >>> huge key long-term support #USDJPY still 151.80 area Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, Hamas says >>> Middle tensions escalating #Brent , as US Carries out strike in Iraq amid escalated tensions after Israel airstrike in Beirut >>> #brent crude sitting near lows of recent range BoJ raised its benchmark interest rate to “around 0.25%”, as exp. BofA's Savita Subramanian sees a rangebound S&P 500 for the rest of the year and little stock price upside for the next decade. "Valuation suggests paltry price return for next 10yrs but dividends should contribute to healthy real total returns from here." #incomeportfolio Donald Trump’s pitch to the crypto crowd lacks logic. Being a force for stability is a tough ask for a volatile asset. Trump's son-in-law-backed Software Giant QXO dropped 80%, Valuation nosedived from $90B to $8.6B Prof. PAUL CHRISTENSEN Electric Vehicle Battery Fires/Video , 9months old, but well worth few mins, even 30mins US interest on debt payments as a % of tax receipts 2025: 25% and 2015: 6% Private sector hiring rate fell to 3.7% in latest JOLTS (lowest April 2020 and in line with 2013-2014 trend) - Bloomberg. US JOLTS Job Openings Jun: 8.184M (est 8.000M; prev R 8.230M) NVDA is down 25% in five weeks Buffett cuts BofA stake again, unloading $3 billion in July Tesla analyst nearly crashes while using ‘Full Self-Driving’ and Tesla is recalling over 1.8 million vehicles because the hood can open while the car is moving #GOLD vs #Copper ratio higher again, usually not a great sign for markets New poll says Kamala Harris has pulled even with former President Trump among swing state voters As of 3 weeks ago, the Nasdaq 100 was beating the Russell 2,000 by 20 percentage points over the prior six months. Now the Russell 2,000 is outperforming the Nasdaq 100 by 5.2 percentage points over the last six months #rotation as expected few weeks back and it came fast! #rotation out of techs, into financials, energy and small caps #Mag7 below their 50dma Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, Hamas says - SWI swissinfo.ch US Carries Out Strike In Iraq Amid Escalated Tensions After Israel Airstrike In Beirut ( msn.com ) BOJ raises benchmark interest rate, outlines roadmap for trimming bond buying program ( cnbc.com ) Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads Trump By 1 Point In Latest Survey ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris pulls ahead of Donald Trump in swing states: Poll ( thehill.com ) Microsoft's Strong Q4 Earnings: What It Means For Your Investment Strategy (NASDAQ:MSFT) | Seeking Alpha Intel will cut ‘thousands’ more jobs, Bloomberg reports ( msn.com ) Chinese Stocks Eye Best Day Since April as Stimulus Calls Grow - Bloomberg It’s not just Big Macs. Consumers are ditching Johnnie Walker whisky and Casamigos tequila ( yahoo.com ) US National Debt as % of GDP... 1980: 31% 1985: 40% 1990: 52% 1995: 65% 2000: 58% 2005: 61% 2010: 87% 2015: 101% Today: 122% German economy unexpectedly shrank 0.1% in second quarter ( msn.com ) Tesla (TSLA) Deploys Fix to 1.85 Million US Cars After Hoods Fly Open - Bloomberg Tesla (TSLA) Analyst Nearly Crashes While Testing ‘Full Self-Driving’ - Bloomberg Prof. PAUL CHRISTENSEN Electric Vehicle Battery Fires SUBSCRIBE NOW ( youtube.com ) Wealthy investors help drive surging demand for gold ( ft.com ) Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sells Bank of America for a ninth-straight day ( cnbc.com ) Donald Trump’s pitch to the crypto crowd lacks logic ( ft.com ) QXO Shares Drop 82% as Hldrs Plan to Resell Shares - MarketWatch Lord Patten tears into 'saloon bar bore' Nigel Farage ( thelondoneconomic.com ) Air New Zealand becomes first major airline to drop 2030 climate goal ( cnbc.com ) Hunt ‘knowingly and deliberately’ lied about finances, says Reeves | Rachel Reeves | The Guardian shame he always sounded like the most likable chap within Torys 'Controversial' new 370,000 a year mandatory housing target announced by government | Politics News | Sky News doing what they say they were going to do.. #brent