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Artprice by Artmarket.com : 28th annual report - The Art Market in 2023. A new record number of artworks sold at auction. Biggest national marketplace: the USA. Female artists showed spectacular growth Why did most markets # SELLOFF recently, blame the # JPY carry trade, #leverage works both ways (hence BoJ tomorrow is key - either way) Softer inflation data set markets for a broadly anticipated rate cut in Sep, the equity market's focus has shifted to growth ahead of key earnings season/results and the ADP/NFP reports this week (and going fwd) will be key >>> so expect Powell to focus on 'negative' labor market momentum tom and going fwd to justify the cut The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) fell again in June, to 2.1% and with meaningful shelter disinflation arriving in June, the declines in inflation are broadening Baidu Launches New $28,000 Robotaxi In Wuhan, GOOG's version costs $300'000 GS turns tactically cautious on risk assets, moving equities in its global asset allocation framework from overweight to neutral on a 3-month horizon as equities performed strongly in the first half of the year.   On a 12-month horizon, Goldman Sachs remains moderately risk-on and continues to overweight equities PBoC did not stop buying Gold in May Container freight rates are halfway to peak Covid levels G20 finance ministers discuss a global tax on the super-rich. Brazil is proposing a global wealth tax of 2% that would only affect about 100 billionaire families but could raise $250bn to tackle the climate crisis McDonalds sees same store sales fall for the first time since '20 WTI crude 2months lows mid 70's >>> is it time to 'long' oil related stuff ?...worth starting to accumulate, copper - see comments below from May 2024 A day of chaos in Israel as far-right protesters storm military bases Generative AI requires massive amounts of power and water, and the aging U.S. grid can’t handle the load Artprice by Artmarket.com : 28th annual report - The Art Market in 2023. A new record number of artworks sold at auction. Biggest national marketplace: the USA. Female artists showed spectacular growth ( prnewswire.com ) Asia market mixed as BOJ begins its two-day policy meeting, eyes on fresh earnings reports ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris must reaffirm her commitment to Bidenomics ( ft.com ) May 2024: short-term price action vs long-term views.. #copper Jeff Currie: “Long Copper Is the Best Trade I Have Ever Seen” Robert Friedland: “forget China real estate, it’s the green shift” Stan Druckenmiller: “Copper is a pretty simple story, takes about 12 years, greenfield to produce copper, and you got EVs, the grid, data centers, and believe it or not munitions”. Nick Timiraos on X: "The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) fell again in June, to 2.1% With meaningful shelter disinflation arriving in June, the declines in inflation are broadening. https://t.co/84wzo4UMgK https://t.co/IUj6Y93m7I " / X Rick Rule: $100 Trillion Dollars in Liability; Why This is Far Worse Than Post Vietnam Dollar Crisis ( youtube.com ) Apple says its AI models were trained on Google's custom chips ( cnbc.com ) Argentine President Milei calls Venezuela's Maduro a 'dictator' and says data shows 'a crushing victory for the opposition' ( msn.com ) G20 finance ministers discuss a global tax on the super-rich ( msn.com ) ‘Morally, nobody’s against it’: Brazil’s radical plan to tax global super-rich to tackle climate crisis | Brazil | The Guardian Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Biden Administration Buys Oil to Refill SPR - Bloomberg Chinese Central Bank (PBoC) Did Not Stop Buying Gold in May ( gainesvillecoins.com ) This article is an analysis of how the Chinese central bank (PBoC) buys gold in London from Western bullion banks. Because the bullion banks take care of the gold transport for the PBoC, the shipments from London to Beijing are disclosed in UK customs data. The customs data reveals that the PBoC continued to buy gold in May—when it communicated to the market it discontinued buying—at a rate of 53 tonnes. The PBoC stated it stopped buying to dampen the gold price so it could acquire more gold. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2024 | World Gold Council Baidu Launches New $28,000 Robotaxi In Wuhan ( forbes.com ) Tesla (TSLA) Analyst Nearly Crashes While Testing ‘Full Self-Driving’ - Bloomberg Holger Zschaepitz on X: "As US unemployment rate has risen from a low of 3.4% in 2023 to 4.1% today, the Sahm rule sounds a recession alarm. BUT Covid has artificially depressed the unemployment rate and the layoff rate remains very low. The unemployment rate has risen b/c net job growth did not keep up https://t.co/repFRps8me " / X Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Real 10y yields on German govt bonds are stable at 0.5%, although nominal yields have recently fallen sharply. However, 10y inflation expectations have fallen to the same extent. https://t.co/IJWzbu7VkP " / X A day of chaos in Israel as far-right protesters storm military bases ( msn.com ) How the massive power draw of generative AI is overtaxing our grid ( cnbc.com ) WTI vs BP (one can use many other names)

#NASDAQ held that 18900 level last week, #SPX500 5450 big weekly level, below 50dma but still above the 100dma levels >>> huge reporting week coming up  + FOMC (moving closer to a cut) + #MSFT on Wed, BoE and BoJ on Friday (U.S payrolls as well) >>> equally important for the #carry trade, #USDJPY big week in Japan, where officials from the MoF been saying to markets that the levels of USDJPY are wrong given rates path on both sides Tech stress last week was last seen in late October 2023. Back then VIX was at 21+ Copper price action last 2months says global slowdown is material, and yet.. Container freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe route have rallied recently as world trade growth slightly improves and due to supply constraints . 70% fewer ships are traveling through the Suez Canal due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The route around South Africa takes 10 days longer and ties up ~30% of additional freight capacity. Bill Ackman slashes fundraising target for US fund IPO by as much as 90% OpenAI's Apple deal could be a bigger threat to Google than SearchGPT Trump says he'll make a national Bitcoin reserve, says he who hated it while back Italy PM Meloni vows to 'relaunch' ties with China BofA says cooling economy will crack Big Tech rally even more US Federal debt just hit another record and is $2.5 billion from reaching $35trn for the first time in history. Since 2019, US Federal debt has skyrocketed by $13trn VolSignals on X: "CTAs: did the market just dodge an $80 billion dollar bullet? h/t BNP 7/24 https://t.co/VRyvPyPZ1g " / X >>>> market internals matter, vols, systematic CTA's etc City split on Bank of England's August interest rate decision ( cityam.com ) OpenAI's deal with Apple could be Google biggest threat ( qz.com ) Bloomberg Opinion on X: "Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley has long been in the “higher for longer” camp on interest rates. But he’s changed his mind. Here’s why he thinks the Fed should cut rates next week 🎥 https://t.co/yj6tS1tZ7j " / X China’s crippling debt levels seen worsening as government measures focus on ‘buying time’ | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Container freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe route have rallied recently as world trade growth slightly improves and due to supply constraints. 70% fewer ships are traveling through the Suez Canal due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The route around South https://t.co/W9RYVInDxr " / X BofA Says Cooling Economy Will Crack Big Tech Rally Even More - Bloomberg Bill Ackman slashes fundraising target for US fund IPO by as much as 90% ( ft.com ) Donald Trump Vows to «Fire Gary Gensler» in Bitcoin Bid ( finews.asia ) Trump promises a Bitcoin reserve at the Bitcoin conference ( qz.com ) Italy PM Meloni vows to 'relaunch' bilateral ties with China ( bbc.com ) Starliner return date in reach for Boeing and NASA ( qz.com ) Olympics 2024: Games declared open as Celine Dion and Lady Gaga thrill Paris - highlights | Reuters Politics: Venezuela's opposition does not recognize Maduro's election victory | blue News ( bluewin.ch ) Yellen says $3T of fresh capital is needed annually to fight climate change ( msn.com ) Water bosses responsible for repeated sewage dumping could face criminal charges | Enfield Independent Richard Behar exchanged emails with Bernie Madoff for a decade ( cnbc.com ) Miraval mystery: The Jersey trust at heart of Brad Pitt wine war - CityAM >>> Brad Pitt has demanded to know who he is in business with after half of his hip wine brand Chateau Miraval, sold by his former partner Angelina Jolie to exiled Russian billionaire Yuri Shefler, ended up in a secretive Jersey trust NASDAQ USDJPY

Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer plan meeting to drive UK-EU ‘reset’. European Commission president is aiming for late August or early September encounter, according to officials Kamala Harris said she’s ready to debate Trump on Sept. 10 The deleveraging dynamic is shifting from a concentrated short squeeze in quant equity market neutral funds to a broader set of macro & trend funds /Thread Goldman Sachs maintains $2,700 price target on Gold due to Chinese demand Revolut secures UK banking licence after 3-year wait Boeing finalizes 737 MAX guilty plea deal , US outlines reasons Hungary took on 1bn euros in loans from Chinese banks in April to finance energy and infrastructure projects Why is Xi Jinping building secret commodity stockpiles?. Vast new holdings of grain, natural gas and oil suggest trouble ahead #USDCAD has not broken above 1.3950 for a few years - chart Want to go to Trump's private event at the Bitcoin conference? It will cost you $800,000 , this seems a little steep! Almost a third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 results so far , and the spotlight is increasingly on sales. Only 43% of companies have managed to beat revenue expectations , which would be the lowest reading in five years NASDAQ has traded inside the trend channel since Oct lows. We went through the 50 day on Wed, and now taking out the 100 day around 18900, give or take, which is a key level to hold/must hold for the bulls now - chart below, pretty week price action into the close last night Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer plan meeting to drive UK-EU ‘reset’ ( ft.com ) Markets Tear Up Popular Trades That Reached ‘Stupid Levels’ - Bloomberg Michael Pettis on X: "It is true that tariffs are likely to be inconsistent with a weak dollar policy. It would be much better to go right to the source of the problem and restrict speculative purchases of the dollar. https://t.co/QmhjWXVI12 via @ft" / X Japan urges G20 vigilance against excessive FX fluctuations | Reuters Barack Obama To Finally Endorse Kamala Harris: Report - Newsweek Why is Xi Jinping building secret commodity stockpiles? ( economist.com ) A second Trump presidency could mean big changes for EVs ( qz.com ) Mercedes profits plunge amid waning electric car sales - latest updates ( telegraph.co.uk ) Finbarr Bermingham on X: "Wow, this is very interesting Hungary took on 1bn euros in loans from Chinese banks in April to finance energy and infrastructure projects. China Development Bakn, China Exim, Bank of China (Hungary) involved in a three-year floating-rate loan. https://t.co/4fxUgx0RNl " / X Trump at Bitcoin conference will cost $800,000 ( qz.com ) CrowdStrike gives $10 Uber Eats gift cards as apology for global tech outage ( qz.com ) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is concerning: 11% of US consumers with 90-day+ new delinquencies of FHA single-family loans cited unemployment as the main reason, the most in over 16 years. An FHA loan is a type of mortgage for borrowers with lower credit scores or who do not qualify for a conventional https://t.co/ZY8rMJHnml " / X The journey of nickel ( glencore.com ) #nickel Goldman still bullish on gold, China underpinning demand outlook ( yahoo.com ) Boeing finalizes 737 MAX guilty plea deal, US outlines reasons ( msn.com ) Revolut secures UK banking licence after 3-year wait #USDCAD do we hold here again below 1.3900 or do we shoot for 1.45+.. NASDAQ

The S&P 500 officially closed the day 2.3% lower, ending its longest streak without a 2%+ decline since 2007 >>> all good things come to and end.  Copper also down for the 8th consecutive day, MAG 7 ETF down 6% (easily its worst day ever) >>> Gamma acts as a throttle for volatility, volatility serves as a toggle for equity exposure (vols down, systematic buyers come in every day, last few months.. >>> now sub 5500 SPX and 19500 QQQ, markets short gamma. .. market structure matters! >>> #NVDA below 50dma etc >>> as if the whole world shorted JPY to buy anything else, including metals and BTC ?.. Ex-NY Fed's Bill Dudley: "I’ve long been in the 'higher for longer' camp...The facts have changed, so I’ve changed my mind . The Fed should cut, preferably at next week’s policy-making meeting.", citing growth and inflation data is now much softer >>> if the FED does not cut in July, market could go on and price 50bps cut in Sep Trump odds are below where they were after the debate…>>> Musk also backs down from $45mio a month pledge to Trump Signs of a weakening consumer keep mounting . The latest: the share of credit card balances past due reached a series high in Philly Fed data back to 2012. Some 2.6% of credit card balances were 60 days past due in Q1, up from a low of 1.1% reached in 2021 Two of Silicon Valley’s famous venture capitalists make the case for backing Trump: that their ability to make money is the only value that matters. #GOOG clearly admitted in their earnings report that that not seeing adequate current ROIC on AI capex, most likely are over-investing, and struggling to provide concrete examples of killer apps deployed worldwide, also emphasized that adoption of new technologies takes time.... >>> "AI is sucking all of the oxygen out of the room," Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson tells Yahoo Finance, adding: "I see AI everywhere, except in the numbers. ... It hasn't really driven revenues and earnings anywhere." Bank of Canada cuts 25bps, will cut further into year-end Ford profitability skids on higher warranty costs, EV losses U.S. will pay $1.14 trillion in interest payments on debt this year U.S Credit Card Balances past due reach highest level in more than 12 years Fact Check: Trump Claimed His Ear Began Regrowing Day After Assassination Attempt? Interest rates: The Federal Reserve needs to cut rates now: Bill Dudley ( afr.com ) Markets agree.. US Yield Curve Steepens as Bond Traders See Fed Cuts Looming - Bloomberg Yen jumps as carry trades unwind, risk mood sours | Reuters Bank of Canada cuts key interest rate again, more cuts 'reasonable' if inflation keeps easing ( msn.com ) Share of US Credit Cards Past Due Climbs to Highest Since 2012 - Bloomberg Javier Blas on X: "OPEC+ is the only cartel that trips twice over the very same Russian, Kazakh and Iraqi compensation plans for overproduction #OOTT Link to the compensation plans (all the way to September 2025): https://t.co/E85u2cZglh " / X Copper falls below $9,000 level on China demand concerns - Markets - Business Recorder ( brecorder.com ) Melinda Gates, Reed Hastings, Beyoncé: Business leaders on Kamala Harris ( qz.com ) Ford profitability skids on higher warranty costs, EV losses ( msn.com ) meanwhile much better here at Renault sticks to 2024 outlook as first-half profit beats estimates - CNA ( channelnewsasia.com ) Nestle Q1 preview: Nescafe maker to likely report 16% in PAT; margins seen to climb 200 bps ( msn.com ) Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on X: "🇨🇳 Hundreds of #China Firms Scrap IPO Plans as Rules Tighten - Shanghai Securities News *An increasing number of Chinese companies have scrapped their A-share IPO plans as local stock exchanges have tightened listing rules and the country’s slowing economy dealt a blow to some of" / X The moral bankruptcy of Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz - The Verge Elon Musk says he's not donating $45 million a month to Trump's campaign: 'Simply not true' ( msn.com ) Bob Elliott on X: "Trump campaign rhetoric calling for high tariffs and a weaker dollar policy are in direct contrast with each other, making them better campaign fodder than a coherent policy making approach. As it is, macro forces matter much more for the USD than a President's wishes. Thread." / X Virgin Atlantic passengers to pay green levy on every flight ( msn.com ) U.S. will pay $1.14 trillion in interest payments on debt this year ( finbold.com ) Egypt raises domestic fuel prices by up to 15% before IMF review | Reuters Fact Check: Trump Claimed His Ear Began Regrowing Day After Assassination Attempt? ( msn.com )

#NASDAQ 19'500, markets get short gamma below there, similarly 5500 for #SPX500 Harris vs Trump, long way to go, but Trump would have definitely preferred to go against Biden.... NEW Reuters/Ipsos poll (conducted after Biden dropped out) Harris 42% Trump 38% Kennedy 8% SPX500 key support around 5500, Very key weekly support, market gets short gamma below it , so beware, earnings yesterday were weaker than expected (Via miss on revenues, UPS miss expectations, TSLA delay disappointing earnings again - after a huge rally in the shares lately though, GOOG decent numbers, CEO though asked for patience on Ai, DB weaker too this morning >>> Richmond Fed manuf lowest since May 2020, Phily Fed similar lowest since Dec 2020, U.S existing home sales down 5.4% in June Germany’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 42.6 in July vs. 44.0 exp , services PMI for the German economy fell to 52.0 in July vs. 53.1 estimate. French services PMI were slightly higher in in July though (Olympics?) #JPY : Japan's chief cabinet secretary calls for broad-based wage hikes >>>  Most #BOJ  Watchers See July Rate Hike Risk With Bond-Buying Cut – Bloomberg The slump in China economic activity is again proving to be a headwind for certain parts of the European equity markets, as nearly all industries with China exposure forecast to experience earnings stagnation or weakness FT - Investors warm to UK equities in ‘turning of tide’ for unloved market. Fund managers including BlackRock , Allianz and Ruffer are betting political stability will boost London market U.S : Used car and truck prices are now down 17.5% since the 2021 peak, the largest decline in 15 years Americans are traveling at record levels : There are a record ~418,000 flights scheduled between the US and Europe from April to October 2024, and yet airlines are struggling on earnings The Mexican government is expressing very strong criticisms about the structure of global trade and especially of China's role in global imbalances Few months ago, experts called for Copper to go to the moon...3months lows now Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds | Reuters Hollywood Is Lining up Behind Kamala Harris - Business Insider Trump nephew reveals Uncle Donald’s racist outburst in new book | Books | The Guardian French services sector grew in July, helped by Olympics, PMI shows | Reuters Record house prices depress US home sales in June | Reuters Homebuyers Backed Out of Deals at a Record Rate in June ( redfin.com ) Investors warm to UK equities in ‘turning of tide’ for unloved market Japan's chief cabinet secretary calls for broad-based wage hikes ( msn.com ) Trimming Back: The Bloomberg Close, Asia Edition - Bloomberg Is it time to rotate away from Magnificent Seven stocks? – The Armchair Trader China’s Xi Jinping bets on high tech for ‘great rejuvenation’ ( ft.com ) China's rate cuts fail to revive iron ore and copper: Russell ( msn.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Caixin: "China’s rapid adoption of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) is posing a problem for many insurers. They’re losing money on insuring the vehicles, as strict pricing rules mean they can’t raise their premiums to the point of profitability." https://t.co/wUOxuoSqes " / X China’s non-financial debt growth slows with firms and households unwilling to leverage up | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) What Qualifies Julius Baer's New CEO ( finews.asia ) We used to work together !... well done Stefan Bollinger ! French left agrees on consensus candidate for prime minister ( thelocal.fr ) Paris 2024: Russian arrested on suspicion of plotting to destabilise Olympic Games | World News | Sky News Porsche profits dampened by model revamps, China slump | Reuters UPS shares fall 12%, post worst day on record after earnings miss and guidance cut ( msn.com ) Google Earnings Top Estimates With $24 Billion Quarterly Profit ( msn.com ) Tesla earnings recap: Elon Musk failed to reassure investors after Robotaxi delay and profit miss ( yahoo.com ) Deutsche Bank shares drop 8% after lender snaps 15-quarter profit streak ( msn.com ) Germany bans Muslim association for pursuing radical Islam | Reuters South African Inflation Slows as Food and Transport Costs Cool - Bloomberg Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 The Mexican government is expressing very strong criticisms about the structure of global trade and especially of China's role in global imbalances. On Saturday, Finance Minister Rogelio Ramírez de la O said that... https://t.co/47fnfWLSdE via @Mexico News Daily" / X

Markets : JPY stronger again (#NIKKEI correction ), VIX topside pressure could put eq markets overall under pressure, 20% of SPX reporting, GOOG, TSLA and U.S PCE Friday US Election : Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday and endorsed VP Kamala Harris, who secured enough support from delegates for nomination. Harris’ platform will likely be similar to Biden's so the policy impact of switching candidates should be minimal >>> Trump peaked at 71% on predictit and it now 59%, Kamala has some work to do, let's see how she can do, right now not very well 'known' by many young Americans, which is the ones (in particular) she needs to go and motivate to vote ! nothing much changed, it's about the middle 5-10% undecided voters French centre-right offers 'legislative pact' that could help Macron Israel-Hamas war latest: Israeli military orders evacuation of part of humanitarian zone in Gaza Porsche: „The transition to electric vehicles will take longer than we assumed five years ago,” Porsche said in a statement. Sales will depend on demand and how EVs develop across the world, it said CrowdStrike outage - class action risk, price action very weak, through 200dma Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index has sliced right thru its 200-day moving average Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, in his State of the Nation address, announces the total shutdown and ban of online casinos, now mostly owned by Chinese, in the country I ndia : Budget 2024 proposes to cut the customs duty to 6% on Gold and Silve r. Moreover, the finance minister has also proposed to reduce customs duty on platinum to 6.4% Tory leadership race triggered as Rishi Sunak formally steps down FT _ Terrific analysis of China's third plenum,  the antipathy toward expanding consumer spending is becoming such a striking anomaly. A recipe for escalating trade frictions Background slides to opening remarks ( europa.eu ) Welcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Joint ECB-IMF-IMFER Conference 2024 Elon Musk, Mark Cuban, and more business leaders on Joe Biden's announcement ( qz.com ) Israel-Hamas war latest: Israeli military orders evacuation of part of humanitarian zone in Gaza ( msn.com ) Will it be Harris vs Trump?: a trader's week ahead playbook ( thearmchairtrader.com ) Samsung strike in South Korea continues into its third week ( qz.com ) Gold and silver to become cheaper, customs duty cut to 6% - The Economic Times ( indiatimes.com ) China’s Xi Jinping bets on high tech for ‘great rejuvenation’ ( ft.com ) For China, EU ties looking rocky after re-election of hawkish Ursula von der Leyen | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Marcos Shuts Down China-Centric Casinos Backed By Duterte ( yahoo.com ) Porsche waters down EV ambitions, says transition will take 'years' ( msn.com ) The CrowdStrike outage caused chaos for business – could we see a class action? ( theconversation.com ) Ole S Hansen on X: "#Copper is currently being challenged by ongoing China demand weakness driving a cont. rise in exchange-monitored stocks. Overall, a resurgent Trump and his anti-renewable stance has added some additional downward pressure to a sector which also includes #silver. https://t.co/deE6vfQ5od " / X Why Switzerland is diverging from Europe on the Energy Charter Treaty ( swissinfo.ch ) Tory leadership race – live: New leader to be elected in November as Robert Jenrick tipped as frontrunner ( msn.com ) French centre-right offers 'legislative pact' that could help Macron | Reuters #SPX >> 5500 key support area on weekly close, break would trigger a bigger correction like the one in April

Week ahead : Trump trade on/off, 20% of SPX companies report earnings this week, and most important data probably U.S PCE on Friday Biden abandons his re-election bid, endorses Kamala Harris, his withdrawal resets the contest ? Dems will try not to contest, but.. any new surprise nomination ? Obama ? In many ways, risk is Trump goes much more vocal again, he really wanted to be on the ticket vs Biden, this possibly changes his attitude, Trump will/could push full on 'tariffs' on everyone he doesn't like and this will not be welcome China cut short and long-term rates by 10 basis points on Monda y, with the central bank saying it was aiming to support growth, in a debt driven world, reforms maybe, but choice often goes to back to more debt and cutting rates Trump says he knows nothing about ‘seriously extreme’ Project 2025 that mirrors many of his proposed policies, Trump 2.0 would not play out like Trump 1.0 in markets. Both the domestic and global contexts have changed materially since 2016 >>> and in very short-term : Markets could unwind the ‘Trump trade’ after Biden drops out of presidential race (negative gamma can work both ways, lets see) UK : The Labour chancellor should (could) sell Britain’s seized crypto assets to fund her economic plans US small-cap stock funds had their 2nd largest weekly inflow on record. Over the last week, almost $10 billion flowed into US small-cap funds ('they bought the break-up') Apollo / 'Half of the population has extreme long-term inflation expectations , which is a problem for the Fed and its credibility.' SPX price action (and NASDAQ) : l ast week, markets shifted to negative gamma , potentially increasing intraday volatility going forward, particularly if we break sub 5500 SPX and 19500 NASDAQ), technical indicators are turning bearish, with all/most SMAs now negative, #VIX also jumped from hibernation towards 16 (from 13 area) AND JPY is still going Markets could unwind the 'Trump trade' after Biden drops out of presidential race ( cnbc.com ) Trump 2.0 would not play out like Trump 1.0 in markets ( ft.com ) China cuts short and long-term rates ( msn.com ) What we know 4 days after a software update brought down computer systems around the world ( msn.com ) UBS: «Joe Biden’s Withdrawal Resets the Contest» ( finews.asia ) Gavin Newsom backs Kamala Harris: No one better to prosecute case against Donald Trump ( thehill.com ) Extreme Disagreement Among Households About the Long-Term Inflation Outlook - Apollo Academy EMERGING MARKETS-Taiwan stocks skid as tech rout extends; Asian currencies range-bound ( yahoo.com ) Trump Disassociates Himself From 'Extreme' Project 2025 At Michigan Rally: 'I Don't Know What The Hell It Is' ( msn.com ) Trump says he knows nothing about ‘seriously extreme’ Project 2025 that mirrors many of his proposed policies ( msn.com ) All state Democratic party chairs endorse Harris | Reuters The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Corporate bond markets are flashing warning signs: Low-quality US corporate bond credit spreads have spiked to their widest since 2001. The ratio of CCC-rated spread to B-rated spread has DOUBLED in ~3 years. This difference is now even higher than the run up to the 2000 https://t.co/AmeUIZ4Lk9 " / X Britain Has a $5 Billion Bitcoin Stash. Reeves Can Unleash It. - Bloomberg J.D. Vance and the Death of Reaganite Foreign Policy - POLITICO Look beyond the Fed for second half gold price boom – The Armchair Trader Stellantis tells owners of over 24,000 hybrid minivans to park outdoors due to battery fire risk | AP News Build houses now, fix pollution later, Labour to tell developers ( thetimes.com ) Barcelona set to 'substantially' raise tourist tax for stopover cruise passengers | World News | Sky News

Cybersecurity platform Crowdstrike down worldwid e, many users logged out of systems Soft or hard landing ? >>> the recent macro data point to a slowdown in the U.S, Euro area, and China, the key question for investors is whether this is a temporary weakening, or the start of a more pronounced downturn.  History suggests the slowdown can turn into a sharp deterioration, relatively quickly, but the data at hand continue to point to a soft landing U.S Jobless claims hit highest level since August 2023 -- 243K Donald Trump Interview Transcript on currencies : "We have currency problems, as you know. Currency. When I was president, I fought very strongly and hard with President Xi and with Shinzo Abe, who’s a fantastic man—actually, you know the story there..." >>> watch out over coming weeks, as he meddles with FED (on interest rates policy) and USD comments China's Third Plenum does nothing to revive economy, observers say French lawmakers re-elect Macron's ally Braun-Pivet as speaker in blow to left J apan's government cut this year's growth forecast on Frida y as consumption took a hit from rising import costs due to a weak yen, highlighting the fragile nature of the economic recovery >>> #USDJPY in the grand scheme of 'carry trades' must hold the 155 USDJPY area , which it seems to have done this week Equity markets . NASDAQ bulls want 19500 to hold on weekly/medium-term basis and SPX 5500 area Microsoft outage latest: Chaos as internet down and flights grounded around the world - latest updates ( telegraph.co.uk ) Jobless claims hit highest level since August ( yahoo.com ) Japan cuts growth forecast, prime minister warns of weak-yen pain - Nikkei Asia Donald Trump's RNC speech could rattle Nvidia, TSMC, other tech stocks ( qz.com ) Trump Media merger sees SEC sue former DWAC chief Patrick Orlando ( qz.com ) French lawmakers re-elect Macron's ally Braun-Pivet as speaker in blow to left | Reuters China's Third Plenum does nothing to revive economy, observers say ( voanews.com ) Read the Transcript of Donald J. Trump’s Convention Speech - The New York Times ( nytimes.com ) Australia news live: media companies, banks and supermarkets hit by global outage linked to Windows PCs ( msn.com ) Crypto Market Awaits Next Stimulus ( finews.asia ) SPX500 needs to hold around 5500 clearly. NASDAQ

Meet J.D. Vance , Trump’s VP pick - see reports below Donald Trump has rewritten his keynote speech for the Republican National Convention this week as he changes his election strategy to focus on a message of national unity after an attempt on his life FED speak and pricing : Powell said recent data has boosted confidence that inflation is heading toward the Fed’s 2% goal >>> markets have fully priced in two 25-bp reductions for 2024, with implied odds of a third reaching about 60% Since the Presidential debate, US 30-year Treasuries are 10bps wider, and higher in yield . That's with softer economic data driving 2s thirty basis points lower in yield, pricing in rate cuts (bull steepening) A company sued a bank arguing that because Covid ICO loans were 80% ICO-guaranteed, they were under the impression that they only had to repay 20%, and he company won the case ! China’s carbon dioxide emissions are on track for a first annual decline since 2016 , a signal the world’s top polluter may have already peaked its output of greenhouse gases. "Xi Jinping’s long quest for technology-driven “high-quality growth” is actually starting to pay off."/BBG Google and Microsoft now each consume more power than some fairly big countries BlackRock assets under management hit all-time high of $10.6tn Precious metals going about their business and pushing higher Markets : coincidence or not, SPX500 gave up a little bit of ground when Vance was announced yesterday, long-end on the move, USDollar a must follow clearly if Trump was to follow up on 'pushing USD down is good for exports' etc. A lot of rate cuts priced in with FED too, so markets 'may struggle' going into earnings, which really kick-off next week Meet J.D. Vance, Trump’s VP pick: Hawk on Israel, critic of foreign aid - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East Venture capitalist, embraced populist politics garnered national attention, #Rumble where he owns a 20% stake went up 20% yesterday, Trump Media jumped 30% or so too, he often talkied about being open to 'devalue' the USD to increase exports, a fan of PLTR too, and eliminating EV tax credits etc, a choice that will divide many folks and business community, and  raise alarm bells among more traditional Republicans on Wall Street who are worried Donald Trump's vice-presidential pick could shape the party platform for years to come Trump’s VP Pick Vance Says China Is the ‘Biggest Threat’ to US - Bloomberg Vance floats crypto plan - POLITICO Trump assassination attempt spawns shirts, mugs, and trading cards ( qz.com ) Biden: 'Bulls-eye' remark was a mistake in light of Trump shooting ( cnbc.com ) Top EU leaders will boycott meetings hosted by Hungary's Orbán after his outreach to Russia, China ( msn.com ) Powell indicates Fed won't wait until inflation is down to 2% before cutting rates ( cnbc.com ) The Fed shouldn't cut rates at all this year as the US is poised for a 2nd half rebound, macro strategist says ( msn.com ) >>> the other view Apple iPhone sales surge in India as company pivots from China ( qz.com ) BlackRock's ETF business just keeps growing, but the search for revenue goes on ( cnbc.com ) Is Toyota on the road to success or steering towards its own downfall? – The Armchair Trader Google and Microsoft now each consume more power than some fairly big countries | TechRadar Top Polluter China’s Shrinking Emissions Put Carbon Peak in Play - Bloomberg >>> China went through this to be less dependent on oil and gas from overseas, brought energy prices costs lower , helped by also hydro power Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 Bloomberg: "Xi Jinping’s long quest for technology-driven “high-quality growth” is actually starting to pay off." Good article on the success of China's technology push, but very confused about the impact on rebalancing demand. https://t.co/Gw0CGkaDKc " / X Venezuela is experiencing days of turmoil over the prospect of political change | International | EL PAÍS English ( elpais.com ) France’s Attal secures way forward with liberals after election debacle – POLITICO Brexit is back as Starmer’s Europe minister heads to Brussels ( msn.com ) Protests will spread if European cities don’t address overtourism ( cnbc.com )

Donald Trump is not letting an attempted assassination derail his plans to attend the Republican National Convention, saying that he can’t allow a “shooter” to change his schedule  >>> odds at quoted by Polymarket. Anything else than a result Trump victory in November now feels unlikely, good for risk, deregulations, steeper (30y yields making highs) >>> US 2s/30s yield spread briefly turns positive for 1st time since Jan, Trump bullish risk, deregulations etc + bull steepener #USDJPY seems approx $15bn were sold last week after U.S CPI, clearly BoJ will need to move on rates to sustain move BP has taken an enormous risk by betting the farm on booming global demand for oil and gas as far out as the late 2030s, and retreating drastically from renewables and clean-tech investment China GDP up 4.7% yoy in Q2, previous 5.3%, expected 5.1% An influx of cheap nickel supply from Indonesia has all but killed off Western Australia’s long-running nickel sector #GOLD 2400+ continues to be well supported, next big wave buying should take markets towards $2700 Zermatt rail link interrupted for weeks after severe flooding in Switzerland Apple, Microsoft, and Meta CEOs on Donald Trump assassination attempt ( qz.com ) Trump shooting at rally sends Bitcoin up, traders to gold and Swiss franc ( qz.com ) Trump-victory trades to swell after shooting, investors say ( msn.com ) ‘It’s where we are politically’: Trump shooting takes US to the brink ( ft.com ) Trump Market Reaction: ‘Trump Trade’ Ramps Up After Rally Attack - Bloomberg Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "BofA: Economics: Inflation box ticked, focus shifts to growth Equities: Stars are aligning for cyclical It’s an earnings-driven market: 2Q earnings to be crucial https://t.co/I1k127ipzE " / X Week ahead: Politics in focus as volatility set to make a return ( fxstreet.com ) Just Stop Oil was right all along about BP ( telegraph.co.uk ) Robert Friedland: No Rational Price for Copper as "Essentially Infinite" Demand Meets Short Supply | INN ( investingnews.com ) Indonesian onslaught wipes out Australia’s nickel industry - MINING.COM The end of stagnation for Europe and the UK | Vanguard UK Professional Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 | World Gold Council Live news: France ‘dangerously exposed’ as budget deficit grows, warns national auditor ( ft.com ) What happens now in crunch week for French politics? ( thelocal.fr ) Patrick Zweifel on X: "1/ Chinese activity data for June generally came in below expectations and slowed, as did GDP growth, which fell to 4% q/q ann. in Q2 from 6.6% in Q1. Taken together, these 2 quarters still point to growth in line with the Chinese authorities' target of around 5%. https://t.co/BTNwPKxMnD " / X A brief pause after a strong gold rally? ( vaneck.com ) Ablass in Zug: Seba belastet 500 Fr. „Off-boarding fees“ – Inside Paradeplatz Zermatt rail link interrupted for weeks after severe flooding in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch More and more Swiss are living abroad - SWI swissinfo.ch #USDJPY >>> can go towards 150 and still be in up trend..

Wild rotation yesterday in Eq markets (start of a turn?) : The losers became the winners, #KRE #IWM #REITs #IWD #EMG and #JPY >> all up vs #USD #IWF (growth), #SPY (large caps big techs) down, after the 1st 'true' negative CPI since May 2020 The AI trade has come under greater investor scrutiny as uncertainty about return on AI investments of hyperscalers – Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft – emerges/GS Very good in depth article from the FT -How UBS fell out with Switzerland’s establishment after rescuing Credit Suisse US, Germany disrupted Russian plot to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO, China and Belarus held symbolic military exercise... and Biden loses his train of thought again, calls Harris ‘Vice President Trump’ in solo press conf And, Strong response by China’s to NATO accusing it of being "a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine”: "The US should reflect on the root cause of the crisis [...] The US must never expect China to pay for the mistakes they have made." Bank of Korea holds rates, seen weighing when to cut rates and BoJ sold approx $15bn #USDJPY yesterday after weaker U.S CPI  and Nikkei reports of them checking #EURJPY rates >>> again is they mean business they will need to hike rates too China posts largest trade surplus in nearly two years , as exports surge; imports weaken - largest in nearly 24years, nearly $100bn BofA: Another month of soft retail spending, Retail sales probably declined in June On NATO's doorstep, China and Belarus hold symbolic military exercise ( lemonde.fr ) US, Germany disrupted Russian plot to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO, CNN reports ( yahoo.com ) and with this, seems quite naive stance... Biden news conference carries high stakes as campaign teeters ( cnbc.com ) Biden mistakenly calls Zelensky ‘Putin’ at Nato summit - BBC News The Artificial Intelligence (AI) trade has been the most popular secular theme over the past 18 months, according to Goldman Sachs (GS) , citing client conversations. However, caution has emerged around the trade recently.  GS notes its four-phase framework for the AI trade: Phase 1) Nvidia, being the clearest near-term AI beneficiary, 2) AI infrastructure providers, including semis, hyperscalers, utility stocks, 3) companies that monetize AI, mainly software and IT services, and, 4) companies with the biggest potential to grow earnings with AI adoption Mining vs AI: What’s wrong with this picture? - MINING.COM Japanese yen firms, USDJPY slides amid intervention talk, rate cut hopes ( msn.com ) Bank of Korea holds rates, seen weighing when to cut rates ( msn.com ) China posts largest trade surplus in nearly two years, as exports surge; imports weaken ( msn.com ) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸👹Ugly 30y UST auction! It tailed by 2.2bps WI, the largest since Jan 2023, despite a spike in direct bidders to a high since Dec 2014‼️ ➡️Indicates duration rejection at 4.405% yield ➡️ Shows the need to appeal to indirect bidders to fund the U.S. deficit‼️ https://t.co/ys5t0tpk1Y " / X How UBS fell out with Switzerland’s establishment after rescuing Credit Suisse As Switzerland’s biggest global bank, UBS would be hit hardest by the proposed capital rules, which require increased levels for foreign subsidiaries. The Swiss parliament will vote on introducing them next year. While the finance ministry has provided little detail on how the capital requirements would be calculated, analysts have estimated it could be an additional $15bn to $25bn for UBS. Keller-Sutter has said such forecasts are “plausible”, much to the dismay of UBS executives who complained that they had been provided with no information to draw up their own analysis. GM, Stellantis and Volvo get Biden's help in building EVs ( qz.com ) Archegos' Bill Hwang Found Guilty in Fraud Trial ( finews.asia ) Apple will have to share its 'tap to pay' tech with rivals, EU says ( qz.com ) Tesla reportedly delaying its robotaxi reveal until October - The Verge Which October ? Uganda Is Latest African Nation Eying Gold as a Currency Shield - Bloomberg How to scrub personal information from Google Search ( cnbc.com )

NATO says its missile defence base in Poland operational now. The White House says U.S.-made F-16 jets are on their way to Ukraine — over a year after Ukraine first asked its allies for advanced fighter jets. Poland must prepare army for full-scale conflict, army chief says French elections: Macron urges lawmakers to build broad 'republican' coalition to break deadlock. In a letter to the French, President Emmanuel Macron calls on 'republican' forces to 'build a solid majority, necessarily plural.' Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is privately signaling to donors that he's open to a Democratic presidential ticket that isn't led by President Biden , Axios Volkswagen on Tuesday warned it may close the Brussels site of its luxury brand Audi due to a sharp drop in demand for high-end electric cars that has hit Europe's top carmaker , forcing it to cut its margin target for the current year In its annual "Energy Outlook" report, BP has revised higher all its forecasts for oil, natural gas and coal consumption At 21.5%, the average credit card interest rate in the US is over 7 percentage points higher than the historical average Microsoft is quitting the board of OpenAI amid growing anti-trust scrutiny China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts . We no longer need to model for when cell prices drop far enough to decarbonize road transport. That day is here Bank of England chief economist points to ‘persistence’ of underlying inflation . Huw Pill’s comments cause traders to scale back expectations of UK interest rate cuts, and this morning's UK GDP was stronger than expected at 0.4% in May, good news The #VIX has averaged 13.8 so far this year, lowest volatility since 2017 FED pricing : substantial cuts priced for while, right now about -6-cuts priced in before end of 2024 and another one later on in 2026 >>> they just get pushed a little further out/brought back closer depending on data >>> with the VIX where it is, it continues to bring systematic buying in Eq, weekly liquidities feeding mainly through to the Mag7 or 8 F-16 transfers to Ukraine are underway, White House says ( axios.com ) Russia issues arrest warrant for Yulia Navalnaya – DW – 07/09/2024 Poland must prepare army for full-scale conflict, army chief says | Reuters NATO says its missile defence base in Poland operational now ( yahoo.com ) French elections: Macron urges lawmakers to build broad 'republican' coalition to break deadlock ( lemonde.fr ) Schumer open to dumping Biden on 2024 Democratic ticket ( axios.com ) Saudi Arabia ‘Veiled Threat’ to G7 Over Russia Assets - Bloomberg Bank of England chief economist points to ‘persistence’ of underlying inflation ( ft.com ) UK economy jumps back with 0.4% growth as Chancellor Rachel Reeves hails start of 'decade of national renewal' ( msn.com ) The Tories betrayed Britain – and too many still refuse to admit it ( telegraph.co.uk ) What's to blame for Tory woes? Boris Johnson and Brexit ( cityam.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 SCMP on a recent meeting between Premier Li Qiang and business leaders: "Stressing that China’s economy was in “stable operation”, Li admitted that factors affecting growth are “more complex than before” and that the difficulties... https://t.co/wbsacHYbXz via @scmpnews" / X Federal Reserve's Lisa Cook Foresees Swift Response To Unemployment Surge Following Jerome Powell's Testimony Before Congress: 'We Are Very Attentive' ( msn.com ) Fed's Structural Dovish Orientation: Why Trump May Not Need to Rock the Boat | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Volkswagen may close Brussels factory as low EV demand hits Audi | Reuters Party over country: Democrats stick with Biden, knowing he is unfit to serve ( thehill.com ) Energy Outlook | Energy economics | Home ( bp.com ) China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts - Bloomberg China building twice as much wind and solar power as rest of world – report | China | The Guardian Archegos Founder, Charged With Manipulating ViacomCBS Stock, Found Guilty of Fraud ( msn.com ) #GBPUSD #GBPCHF #GBP