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Easing too soon could 'harm inflation progress', says Powell, overall dovish text given levels of rates currently, in any case a lot of cuts priced in up to 2025 already..not quite the -8- cuts Citi was talking about yesterday but close More Democrats in US Congress say they fear Biden can't win Saudis Warned G-7 against Russia seizures with Debt Sale threat Goldman’s Head of Global Equity Research, Jim Covello, is pretty negative Gen AI European automakers are facing downside risk to pricing, a reversal from the pandemic period where automakers gained abnormal pricing power.  In both the Europe and US, auto affordability is at decade lows, and automakers have already started making concessions, leading Morgan Stanley to downgrade the sector from In-Line to Cautious Eli Lilly's Mounjaro is more effective at weight loss than Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, study finds Buffet : "I could end the deficit in five minutes,” he told CNBC’s Becky Quick in a 2011 interview. “You just pass a law that says that any time there's a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.” Dyson to cut nearly one third of UK workforce, backed Brexit and left for Singapore.. More Democrats in US Congress say they fear Biden can't win | Reuters France’s leftwing parties jostle to lead new government France’s leftwing parties jostle to lead new government Nouveau Front Populaire bloc won the most parliamentary seats in snap election but fell short of majority Almost half Tory members want merger with Reform UK, poll suggests, as leadership infighting escalates – UK politics live ( msn.com ) Testimony by Chair Powell on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress - Federal Reserve Board FTSE 100 and European markets lower, US mixed as traders look to Powell speech ( yahoo.com ) US Inflation Expectations Fall for Second Month in NY Fed Survey - Bloomberg Options Talk - Episode 22 - plain shares versus combo with options | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Warren Buffett said that he could end America's deficit problem 'in five minutes' — here's what he would do ( yahoo.com ) Saudis Warned G-7 Against Russia Seizures With Debt Sale Threat ( msn.com ) Why the G7 can no longer pretend to rule the world | Middle East Eye BYD will build an EV factory in Turkey to dodge EU tariffs ( qz.com ) Goldman Sachs Research Newsletter GS - GEN AI: TOO MUCH SPEND, TOO LITTLE BENEFIT? Financial Times: UBS und Bern völlig verkracht – Inside Paradeplatz Mounjaro is better for weight loss than Ozempic: study ( qz.com ) Dyson job cuts: One third of vacuum company's UK workforce to go - BBC News Vanke Warns of $1.2 Billion Loss on China’s Housing Slump ( yahoo.com ) AS POLITICAL PARTIES FALL, GOLD AND SILVER WILL RISE - VON GREYERZ AG The French left faces a reality check over 90% wealth tax and lavish spending ( msn.com ) sounds great.. 'Blowout' in French borrowing costs still to come: David Roche ( cnbc.com ) Andrew Neil on X: "So here is the composition of the New National Assembly from which President Macron is expected to create some sort of Coalition (good luck with that): The biggest group is the Left Alliance (NPF) which has 182 seats. But that is made up of four distinct parties: •  Mélenchon’s https://t.co/JXHsmexPnf " / X

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be testifying on Capitol Hill . He'll first appear before the Senate Banking Committee and then, on Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee as part of his semiannual policy report to Congress >>> set-up for a softer U.S CPI on Thursday, GS Core Inflation Tracker is now below 2% US financial conditions are now the easiest in 27 year s/Thread Nikkei new highs, semis leading the charge. After the 10% correction in MSCI China over the past six weeks, investors will be looking at China’s July policy meeting s – the Third Plenum in mid-month and the Politburo meeting at end of the month – for the growth outlook for the remainder of 2024/GS is comparatively optimistic about the meeting outcomes. Relative to the S&P 500, the S&P 500 Momentum Index has surged to a new cycle high and is at its highest since August 2000 >>> Goldman Sachs warns that everyone, including itself, is too bullish on the stock market, which could mean a correction is coming. July 17 has historically marked a local top heading into a weaker August! The German government owns around $2 billion in bitcoi n — and it’s freaking out crypto investors #BTC Corn plummets to lowest price since November 2020 China EV maker BYD to build $1-bln plant in Turkey >>> back door deal into Europe #GDX outperformed #XAUUSD last week , catch-up time, #SILJ in the frame too BP is telegraphing a rather weak quarterly result Equity markets : overall plenty of calls of 'overdone, concentration of risk never been higher, Mag7 or Mag8 momentum crazy, a 10pct correction is coming', for now none of it matters, as financial conditions too loose and we know where liquidities are going... seasonality maybe now during summer may come into play, particularly on U.S elections expectations change and/or FED expectations for 2024 changing, France heading for a long coalition period of talks, neither far left nor far right likely to be involved.. Powell on Capitol Hill, small business optimism: What to watch ( yahoo.com ) What the Federal Reserve should put on the Jackson Hole agenda ( ft.com ) Citi: Fed Could Cut Interest Rates By 200 Points Through 2025 ( yahoo.com ) BOJ Sounds Out Market Players Before Finalizing Bond-Buying Cuts - Bloomberg Politics, Payrolls and Policy: a trader's week ahead playbook ( thearmchairtrader.com ) Yardeni says this slow-motion meltup has further to run and could see their 6000 SPX target for 2025 being too conservative.  "Eric, Joe, and I aren’t raising our year-end target for the S&P 500 just yet. But we are learning to live with the S&P 500 outpacing even our bullish projections. It did so last year: Our year-end target of 4600 was reached on July 31, 2023....Now we are rethinking whether our current projections of 6000 by the end of 2025, 6500 by the end of 2026, and 8000 by the end of the decade might be too conservative. The market may be discounting our Roaring 2020s scenario faster than we expected." Germany owns $2 billion in bitcoin (BTC). It's freaking out investors ( cnbc.com ) Labour to seek joint declaration with EU on wide-ranging security pact | Foreign policy | The Guardian Read Biden’s full letter to congressional Democrats declining to leave the 2024 presidential race | PBS News The Kobeissi Letter on X: "US financial conditions are now the easiest in 27 years. They are even easier than when the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022. Since then, the Fed has hiked rates by 5.5% and shrunk its balance sheet by $1.7 trillion. Meanwhile, the US economy has begun to slow https://t.co/kAXoCdrB3x " / X Rachel Reeves says being chancellor ‘smashing one of last glass ceilings’ ( msn.com ) Wind power out-produces coal for first time ever ( qz.com ) BP warns of Q2 profit hit from weak refining margins, oil trading ( msn.com ) China EV maker BYD to build $1-bln plant in Turkey | Reuters Credit Suisse no longer exists as legal entity in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Boeing to plead guilty to a felony in 2 deadly 737 Max crashes ( qz.com )

'It's about to get wild': Congress returns for pivotal week as Democrats sweat over Biden France's election result : no group has a mandate to govern , biggest turnout since 1981, Melenchon makes a lot of noise (which markets would clearly not like, lot more debts, OAT's down etc), Macron will call for some to join him, let's see, strange quirk of French election results saw Le Pen's RN finish third whilst taking 37% of the popular vote whilst the 'winning' left alliance took just 25% & Macron party just 23% >>> wouldn't be surprised to see a more 'centrist coalition' with an absolute majority, as the extremes left and right do not have enough to stop it happening UK's Labour government not in, but less confrontational and closer to Europe in some specific areas, defence, research, biotech and so on >>> it clearly improves political stability for the UK, which IS a clear winner for outside investors to participate in the 'reset', probably support a rerating of part of the UK equities The UST 10y yields continue to trade inside the perfect trend channel that has been in place since April highs. Note we are below the 200dma (although it is basically flat). Also worth pointing out is the trend line from late Dec Bank of Japan signals progress in wage, price hikes Nato allies to pledge €40bn for Ukraine amid domestic turmoil. Washington summit to set out limited support package for Kyiv as allies grapple with domestic political turmoil While the 206,000 increase in June non-farm payrolls beat consensus expectations of 190,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4% previously BofA: We believe that it is prudent to hedge into CPI, especially with the 2Q earnings season starting this Friday Almost half of the S&P 500 is now essentially tech French Leftist Leader Melenchon Says Left 'Ready To Govern' | Barron's ( barrons.com ) Market will definitely NOT like this scenario France faces political deadlock after surprise left-wing vote surge blocks far right’s path to power – The Irish Times France shifts to the left, but risk of policy paralysis looms ( msn.com ) Ils ont tout raté sur l'élection française (et ce n'est pas fini) - Blick 'It's about to get wild': Congress returns for pivotal week as Democrats sweat over Biden ( msn.com ) NFP: What are analysts saying By Investing.com Growth is UK’s ‘national mission’, Rachel Reeves declares ( ft.com ) New PM to make first visit to Stormont - BBC News Bank of Japan signals progress in wage, price hikes ( msn.com ) Has the market fully priced in a UK Labour victory? – The Armchair Trader Nope, nowhere near IMHO Nato allies to pledge €40bn for Ukraine amid domestic turmoil ( ft.com ) PM Modi's Russia Visit: Key Talks On Ukraine War With President Putin - Oneindia News Migration of Credit Suisse Clients: The Biggest Challenge Comes Last ( finews.asia ) JPMorgan Chase might start charging for checking accounts ( qz.com ) Shell takes $2 billion charge on biofuels, refinery operations ( qz.com ) Mass tourism protesters squirt water at Barcelona tourists - BBC News happened in other places in europe lately..Local folks fed up with cost of living, unaffordable housing etc EURUSD has done nothing for best part of 18months, follow the break when it comes

U.S NFP this afternoon, expected to be on soft side UK election results, as expected... Labour gains big majority of approx 410 seats out of the 650 , LibDems did well, Reforms got a few seats, Green 4 seats best ever, nothing that should shake financial markets >>> they will push for the UK as a centre of research excellence, working on commercially viable solutions, biotech, science, R&D and so on, for which a closer relationship to europe will be necessary >>> #GBPCHF higher overall ALL of the outgoing members of this Tory government lost their seat overnight.. France election, RN will fall well short of the outright majority, 2nd round usually vastly different, alliances... Le Pen's party likely to gain between 200-240 seats, short of the 289 required >>> lots of words, shouting and political games, chances are little actually happens Biden : FT - Governors Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom along with vice-president Kamala Harris are the donors' preferred candidates to replace Joe Biden in the White House race, several people familiar with the matter have said #BTC down through key support/200dma >>> at a guess, most 'tourists' bought bitcoin above 55K one the #ETF news .... below this all/most of those late buyers are loosing money, crypto's well off their recent peaks... 71K to 51K in 1month #GDX vs #XAUUSD - generally speaking miners (most hated industry currently) have a huge divergence relative to #gold prices >>> '' The gold is the ultimate reserve if the entire financial system were to get into trouble and nothing would be of value anymore'' Jamaica, Etna, California, not nice Brazil's Bolsonaro indicted for alleged money laundering for undeclared diamonds from Saudi Arabia Friday's jobs report expected to show slowing payroll gains as concern rises about broader economy ( msn.com ) Ole S Hansen on X: "Another 18k slump in #Bitcoin to go if the recent behaviour is being replicated. All it took for a coin whose raison d'être is its lack of supply, was the potential supply from the failed Mt. Gox exchange and current selling from the German govn of confiscated coins from an https://t.co/jjcitVyaTw " / X Netherlands is ready to rebuild its financial system with gold | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee | Exposing the long-term manipulation of the gold market ( gata.org ) UK Election: How the night unfolded | UK News | Sky News 30,000 police to be deployed across France in wake of snap election | The Independent Le Pen party in talks to join Orbán’s group in European parliament ( ft.com ) Democratic donors push Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom as Joe Biden replacements ( ft.com ) Listen: Biden says he is ‘first black woman to serve with a black president’ ( msn.com ) wait, what, he really said this!!?...something has to give sorry Joe Brazil's Bolsonaro indicted for alleged money laundering for undeclared diamonds from Saudi Arabia ( msn.com ) Singapore Says Tainted Family Offices Received Tax Benefits ( finews.asia ) Nearly 30,000 people in northern California evacuated as raging wildfire spreads | California | The Guardian Hurricane Beryl tracker: Category 3 storm heading for Mexico after battering Jamaica | The Independent Watch: Drone footage shows explosive Mount Etna eruption - BBC News good grief, you think you have it bad ?

UK's Labour could head to a monster majority of over 400seats Overall, FOMC minutes : slightly dovish as the committee seems to have become relatively more optimistic on the inflation outlook >>> consistent with Chair Powell's comments in Sintra yesterday >>> Sep cut almost all priced in (75%) France election update : seems now NR projections are for 200 seats, below 289 majority to form govt, which is way below 1st round, always about those alliances in round 2... >>> euro, OATs, equity recovered.. U.S services PMI much weaker at 48.8, after 53.8 in May, ISM Manufacturing and Services now both in contraction as of June, The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index has dropped to a 9-year low Jobless claims were up slightly but continuing claims keep climbing and are now at the highest since late 2021 . Is the Fed paying attention to this? “We do think the labor market will remain tight due to the imminent wave of Baby Boomer retirements:” RBC’s Reid. The job openings rate, now at 4.9%, remains higher than pre-Covid, but the labor force has grown less than 3% since 2019, “suggesting demographic forces are at play.” The last major bear on Wall Street has capitulated, Kolanovic leaves JPM Trump floats replacing income tax with tariffs #BTC Bitcoin is trading right on the big trend line and the lower part of the range . Note the 200 day moving average slightly lower 59500 area A series of raids in Italy has exposed the contrast between the glamorous world of Milan’s catwalks and some of the realities of luxury-goods production   Swiss CPI inflation undershoots SNB projections again, down to 1.33% in June. Core inflation eased to 1.1% France's far-right seen falling short of majority in run-off, poll shows ( msn.com ) Législatives : le RN n’obtiendrait pas une majorité absolue (Première projection après désistements) | Le Grand Continent General election – live: Polls open as millions to vote across UK today ( msn.com ) Defiant Biden vows to stay in presidential race ‘to the end’ ( msn.com ) Trump floated replacing income tax with tariffs: GOP Rep Thomas Massie ( nypost.com ) June U.S. Manufacturing PMI comes in at 51.6 | Watch ( msn.com ) Google carbon emissions up on AI demand ( qz.com ) Alaska Airlines flight attendants get raises, boarding pay in new contract ( qz.com ) Raids Find Luxury Handbags Being Made by Exploited Workers in Italy ( msn.com ) Beware what you buy

Biden is on his way out.. (Predictit - betting exchange - see below), Kamala favourite, Newson and Michèle Obama next up Jay Powell says US needs to cut deficit ‘sooner rather than later’-FT >>> >>> consistent message from JPow, the markets will react to the U.S presidential polls and when Biden goes, Mag7's near highs together with indices Goldman Sachs notes of the recent disconnect in the historical relationship of #USDJPY and the real interest rate differential.  While there are theories to explain this, none are conclusive.  Goldman Sachs continue to expect weakness in the yen , but the latest round of depreciation may prompt intervention from Japanese authorities >>>> you cannot have it both ways BoJ, it's either rates or JPY.. Britain could become ‘island of stability’ as Macron debt crisis consumes France, says UBS >>> #GBPCHF "America’s Census Bureau produces the best estimates. It finds that only 5% of businesses have used AI in the past fortnight . Even in San Francisco many techies admit, when pressed, that they do not fork out $20 a month for the best version of ChatGPT" Manufacturing Construction Spending in the US continues to hit new record highs, more than tripling over the last 3 years EU is drawing up plans to impose customs duties on cheap goods bought from Chinese online retailers including Temu, Aliexpress and Shein. The European Commission later this month will suggest scrapping a current €150 threshold under which items can be bought duty-free.-FT Presidency ( predictit.org ) Biden all but going.. Michelle Obama Is Only Democrat Beating Trump in New Post-Debate Poll – And It’s by A LOT ( msn.com ) Joe Biden admits he ‘nearly fell asleep’ during Trump debate as he blames jet lag for poor performance ( msn.com ) Britain could become ‘island of stability’ as Macron debt crisis consumes France, says UBS ( msn.com )  - indeed - we stay long #GBPCHF Over 200 candidates withdraw before second round of voting – France election live ( msn.com ) Fed on Alert for US Labor Market as Hiring and Quitting Slow - Bloomberg Jay Powell says US needs to cut deficit ‘sooner rather than later’ ( ft.com ) - disinflation trend appears to be resuming, need more confidence before cutting - Fed does not see 2% inflation this or next year - budget deficit very large and unsustainable - 4% unemployment is still very low rate - Moving too fast risks inflation returning Charlie Bilello on X: "Manufacturing Construction Spending in the US continues to hit new record highs, more than tripling over the last 3 years. https://t.co/rQuXrxVXM0 https://t.co/x8YefQDLiL " / X Inflation needs to fall more before Fed interest rate cuts, Jerome Powell says ( qz.com ) EU takes aim at China's Temu and Shein with proposed import duty, FT reports ( msn.com ) Biden wants Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly to cut Ozempic, other weight loss drug prices ( qz.com ) BBC Verify rounds up fact checks of this election's disputed claims - BBC News What happened to the artificial-intelligence revolution? ( economist.com )

French Elections : If the left & center parties keep Marine Le Pen’s bloc from a majority, unstable paralysis will follow. If they don’t, the National Rally will split power with Emmanuel Macron — accompanied by a bond market selloff and halt to growth, Bloomberg >>>> it IS going to get pretty messy-complicated Guindos said the ECB “don’t have a predetermined path” for interest rates. Iran would use ‘all means’ to back Hizbollah if Israel launches full-blown war , official says Aide to supreme leader warns Israel risks triggering regional conflict in the event of all-out offensive against militant group-FT Crude highest levels since April Shell pauses construction of European biofuels facility >> Shell is likely to take a write-down as a result. Another misallocation of shareholders' money Small Cap Stocks post worst first half in HISTORY relative to Large Caps >>> #Mag7 BofA: Only 24% of stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index YTD, marking the third narrowest 6-mo. period in history since 1986 (was narrower in Jul 2023 at 23% and in Feb 2020 at 21%). Gold-buying frenzy grips Vietnam and Thailand as economic fears mount #USDJPY >>> JPY keeps falling, you can't intervene to strengthen JPY and at the same time intervene to keep yields 'ridiculously' low...something has to give, right now its the JPY, which is becoming a huge issue for #USDCNH which is now a #crawlingpeg basically Equity markets : as we start H2 2024, markets are on highs, Mag7 valuations 'crazy' rich really, elections will start to impact #uncertainty Trump will be all about spending (UST long-end giving way in anticipation), inflation remains sticky, and Europe election risk/political uncertainty on higher levels with Le Pen (worse with far-left), strangely enough the UK will be steady-good-boring with Labour going forward.. #EURGBP lower Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3: Sandcastle economics | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Resilient economic growth : The US economy shows robust growth driven by investments in AI, defence, semiconductors, and obesity drug manufacturing, despite aggressive monetary policy rate increases and cooling labour markets in the US and Europe. Persistent inflation : Inflation in the US and Europe remains higher than initially expected but is easing, and robust wage growth is contributing to an income-driven economic growth scenario, which is seen as a "goldilocks scenario" entering the third quarter. Two-lane economy : Different sectors of the economy are experiencing varying impacts from high-interest rates, with sectors like real estate and car manufacturing struggling, while defence, semiconductors, AI, and obesity drug manufacturing are booming, complicating monetary policy decisions. Investment outlook : The short-term investment outlook is positive, favouring risky assets due to calm financial markets and a low financial turbulence indicator. Recommended asset allocations include being overweight in equities and commodities, European equities, and sectors like energy, healthcare, financials, and information technology. We also like short-term government bonds and high quality corporate bonds. Commodity and FX views : The energy and grains sectors are expected to perform well, with robust demand for crude oil and grains recovering from adverse weather conditions. In the FX market, risk-on currencies like AUD and NZD are expected to outperform in a bearish dollar environment, while low-yielding currencies like JPY and CHF are likely to underperform Politics will be key for financial markets this summer – The Armchair Trader General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? - BBC News Iran would use ‘all means’ to back Hizbollah if Israel launches full-blown war, official says ( ft.com ) Joe Biden slams US Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling as Donald Trump seeks to overturn hush money convictions ( msn.com ) Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for July 1 - Bloomberg Gold-buying frenzy grips Vietnam and Thailand as economic fears mount | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Le Pen’s Support Surges in Nearly Every City, Town and Village in France ( bloomberg.com ) Friends, foes of France’s far-right National Rally scramble after first round of voting | AP News BIS Warns of High Debt Levels and Loan Defaults ( finews.asia ) ECB Must Be Patient With Further Interest-Rate Cuts, Muller Says - Bloomberg Chinese EVs Are Selling More Cars Than Ever. Tesla Should Be Worried. - Business Insider Shell pauses construction of European biofuels facility - Energy Live News #EURUSD will go through support particularly if the French far-left gets in.. but overall uncertainty may well keep EURO offered overall again #EURJPY ?

Week ahead (see below upcoming events), starts of H2 2024, UK election, 2nd round in France >>> ''RN falling short of majority'', 10y spread to Bund narrows by about 8bps, risk rallies initially in europe, long way to go >>> Hung parliament possible France, RN 33.1%, left-wing alliance 28% and Macron camp 21%, Édouard Carmignac says markets will keep French far right on ‘tight leash’ Biden wants to stay on by the sound of things Inflation expectations in Japan have risen to the highest since at least 2004 by one measure as the tumbling yen pressures import prices higher, adding to the case for the central bank to raise interest rates Global shipping freight cost have spiked to the highest level since 2022, and US economic surprise index has plummeted to the lowest level since August 2022 Recycling ‘end-of-life’ solar panels, wind turbines, is about to be climate tech’s big waste business France election: Far right hails lead and seeks majority - BBC News Édouard Carmignac says markets will keep French far right on ‘tight leash’ ( ft.com ) French election results: Fallout from far right win — live updates – POLITICO Iran to hold runoff election with reformist Pezeshkian and hard-liner Jalili after low-turnout vote ( msn.com ) Japan Inflation Outlook Jumps, Backing BOJ Case for Rate Hike ( yahoo.com ) Biden’s family reportedly tell him to stay in presidential race as blame shifts to advisers | Joe Biden | The Guardian so 'who's in charge here' ? Former DNC vice chair: 'Absolutely not too late' for Biden's withdrawal ( thehill.com ) Saxo/ Upcoming Events: Monday  Japan Tankan, DE Inflation, International PMI, US ISM, Canada Holiday Tuesday EU Inflation, Unemployment, Powell speaks Wednesday  DE Industrial Orders, US Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Minutes, John Williams Speaks Thursday US Holiday, UK Election , DE Industrial Orders Friday  DE Industrial Production, UK House Prices, Swiss FX Reserves, US Nonfarm & Unemployment, Canada Labor Market Data And Saturday a certain England vs Switzerland.. Compounding Quality on X: "7 Finance documentaries and movies everyone should watch: 1. Enron - The Smartest Guys in the Room Documentary that unravels the intricate web of corporate fraud and greed behind the infamous collapse of Enron. https://t.co/mzawAELN9J " / X Disney Stock Faces Major Challenges: Is Iger The Right Choice? ( forbes.com ) Recycling end-of-life solar panel, wind turbine is big waste business ( cnbc.com ) #EURCHF

Early debate was a huge gamble Biden may regret >>> Biden and Trump were both asked about how they would handle the office of the presidency given concerns about their ages. The pair instead decided to argue about golf >>> good news is the debate happened now, well before Dems convention in Sep, so they have time to replace Joe French Political Leaders Clash Over Ukraine Policy in Heated-Televised Debate MIT professor Daron Acemoglu offers an opposing view to the idea that AI will greatly boost productivity over the next 10 years, as many, including Goldman Sachs, believe .  Use cases for AI over the next 10 years will be concentrated in automating certain tasks or helping workers become more efficient; truly transformative changes resulting from AI will need more time to be realized Is the revival of Paris in peril? The French election threatens a remarkable commercial renaissance Former BOE MPC member Saunders sees cut in August and cash rate to 3.5% at end-2025 Goldman Sachs just reported that hedge funds are aggressively offloading tech stocks at a rapid rate we haven't seen in years - odd, must follow this in July Goldman Sachs fared the worst of America's Biggest Banks during the Federal Reserve's Annual Stress Test IMF on US review : “high deficits and debt create a growing risk to the US and global economy… needs to be urgently addressed” Early debate was a huge gamble Biden may regret ( msn.com ) Excruciating Biden debate performance against Trump was among worst in presidential history - if not the worst | US News | Sky News Five key moments from the Biden Trump debate ( telegraph.co.uk ) No Fortune 100 CEO supports Trump, a Yale Business professor says | Fortune French Political Leaders Clash Over Ukraine Policy in Heated-Televised Debate - Publicist 24 French election breakdown: Military power-struggle, French preference and beers ( thelocal.fr ) Is the revival of Paris in peril? ( economist.com ) Europe: Von der Leyen nominated for second term as EU Commission President | blue News ( bluewin.ch ) United States of America: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission ( imf.org ) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "#Germany is experiencing a quake on the market for open-ended property funds. The stock market prices differ markedly from the providers' NAVs. Don't miss my take on this on LinkedIn. https://t.co/d1MiyzyeUE " / X ( twitter.com ) Acemoglu questions productivity benefits of AI - Central Banking Why the world is barreling towards a 'food war,' according to one commodity trader ( msn.com ) Goldman Sachs was the ‘worst hit’ in the Fed’s latest stress test of big banks. Bank of America still lists it as a buy ( msn.com ) The Supreme Court rejects a nationwide opioid settlement with OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma - POLITICO Astonishing that this is still ongoing !!! #dopestick is a great serie on this Boots: UK sales jump as US parent announces store closures ( cityam.com ) Buying asset with leverage/debt, and cash flows diminishing, never a good cocktail Cocaine Inc: how British drugs cash is turned into solid gold in Dubai ( thetimes.com ) Bitcoin breaks into Traditional Finance: Commoditizing crypto currency offerings | finalix Novo Nordisk to restrict Wegovy sales in China ( qz.com ) Boeing woes will not erode workers' readiness to strike, union says ( msn.com )

BoJ : will they, won't they #USDJPY >>> FWIW, FX interventions without back up on rates, look doomed, not to say they can't move JPY up 2-3-4% - anything is possible clearly, but wouldn't last long, similarly to what happened in early May this year Elections ahead : 28th June in Iran, France 30th June and 8th July, UK on 4th July and of course tonight the big Biden-Trump show >>> and EU consumer conf, usual U.S data to watch (Jobless claims, final GDP, durable goods & U.S PCE tomorrow), Fed's Barkin tomorrow as well >>> equity rotation week so far, rates OATS etc in play, Mag7 benefit, rest softer (JPY, CHF, Russell etc), MICRON weaker after earnings last night KKR Makes Its Biggest Foray Into Apartments, Betting on Rising Rents.. Biden administration touts lower costs for 64 prescription drugs Bolivia coup attempt fails after military assault on presidential palace Many Americans in new survey say Biden more personable than Trump, but not stronger Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 27 June 2024 | Saxo (home.saxo) USD/JPY consolidates near two-month top, remains below 160.00 amid risk of intervention (fxstreet.com) Hermès: The pinnacle of timeless luxury and craftsmanship | Saxo (home.saxo) KKR Makes Its Biggest Foray Into Apartments, Betting on Rising Rents (msn.com) >> which stage of capitalism are we in ? find it hard to think this is good for the people.. Crude seeks support from seasonal demand strength | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Why do most countries buy oil in U.S. dollars? - Marketplace Europe wants to deploy data centers into space, study says (cnbc.com) Microsoft to build huge datacentre near Leeds after £106m deal (cityam.com) Rivian's $5 billion deal with Volkswagen gets Wall Street cheers (qz.com) Here are the 13 brands affected by the FDA listeria recall (qz.com) Biden administration touts lower costs for 64 prescription drugs (yahoo.com) Amazon joins the $2 trillion market cap club with Microsoft and Apple - Neowin Is your rent ever going to fall? (economist.com) French elections: Macron could end up a loser. How did he get there? (lemonde.fr) Bolivia coup attempt fails after military assault on presidential palace - SWI swissinfo.ch Surveyed Americans say Joe Biden more personable than Donald Trump, but not stronger (thehill.com) #BTC better hold the 60K area for the bulls

FT-France could trigger the next euro crisis. Runaway budget deficits and confrontation with Brussels and Berlin is a formula for trouble -- France : "If a country can just ignore the rules and be helped by the central bank, you'll get a lot of doubts about the future value of the euro and the future cohesion of the euro," said Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg to Reuters Fed’s Bowman says rate cut is not appropriate yet given inflation risks, willing to raise rates if progress on inflation stalls >>> For the first time, the average economist’s forecast (compiled by Bloomberg) shows less than two full Fed rate cuts by the end of the year (close call, basically 2cuts the name of the game for now) FED paper : Higher inflation can lead to greater efficiency >> Will J Powell make this case on CNBC? unlikely FedEx shares jump after hours as massive cost-cutting measures kick in Australia inflation jumps to 6-mth high in May, ramps up rate hike risks, AUD up Chinese Yuan falls to lowest level against the U.S. Dollar in more than 7 months >>> @crawlingpeg - the higher #USDJPY goes the higher #USDCNH will go/follow Denmark to charge farmers €100 a cow in first carbon tax on agriculture Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 26 June 2024 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Australia inflation jumps to 6-mth high in May, ramps up rate hike risks (msn.com) Lufthansa to charge up to €72 per ticket to cover climate costs – POLITICO Rivian: Volkswagen takes $1 billion stake in EV maker (cnbc.com) UBS CEO sees functioning competition in corporate banking - SWI swissinfo.ch Von der Leyen lined up for second term under EU top jobs deal, sources say - SWI swissinfo.ch U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen touts new affordable housing drive (axios.com) Ultraorthodox Israelis must serve in army, court rules (ft.com) U.S. ambassador accuses China of undermining bilateral ties, WSJ reports (cnbc.com) FedEx (FDX) earnings Q4 2024 (cnbc.com) Fed’s Bowman says rate cut is not appropriate yet given inflation risks - MarketWatch The Fed - Inflation, Price Dispersion, and Welfare: The Role of Consumer Search (federalreserve.gov) >>>> Higher inflation can lead to greater efficiency. It all has to do with the price dispersion that inflation generates, which might motivate some consumers to search for the lowest prices, increasing competition among sellers >>> will Powell endorse this moment ion the TeeVee ? unlikely.. France could trigger the next euro crisis (ft.com) Analysis-France may be next test of the euro's foundations - SWI swissinfo.ch Airbus stock drops 11% as plane maker cuts forecast on deliveries (qz.com) The duopoly not doing great! Huawei is having hard time producing AI chip under U.S. sanctions (qz.com) Kenya Protests: Indians Advised To 'Exercise Caution' After New Finance Bill Triggers Riots | Top Updates (outlookindia.com) Denmark sets first carbon tax on agriculture – POLITICO Madness The Julian Assange case — a timeline (msn.com) WikiLeaks founder Assange pleads guilty to espionage charge ahead of expected release (msn.com) Nonsense and Bad Rules Persist in Banking by Anat R. Admati - Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org)

Markets taking a breather on key momentum trades/area #NVDA and #SMH (biggest insider selling week, momentum, Apple Ai news important too) and #BTC similar reasons >>> clear rotation out of chips into financials and others, NVDA to $90 area? chart below Nvidia has lost more than $400-500 bn in market valuation in the past three trading sessions. Those losses are greater than the market cap of companies including Johnson & Johnson, Home Depot, Merck, Bank of America and Netflix Latest in France : Le Pen Party Has 36%, Macron Group Has 20.5%, Alliance of left-wing parties would get 29.5%: Ifop Poll Brussels accuses Apple of breaking EU competition rules. Tech giant faces penalty of up to 10% of global annual revenue, this matter together with Ai news y'day US banks' construction loan delinquencies hit highest level in at least 3 years Mt.Gox has revealed its plans to start reimbursing its users Bitcoin according to an update shared by the platforms’ Rehabilitation Trustee >>> to put it in perspective that's about 50% of recent inflows gone in one shot #BTC #BTC Bitcoin dropped below its 50-day moving average, Bitcoin drops by 3.5% as German government sells off $325 million BTC Singapore and, in particular, Hong Kong are increasingly overtaking Switzerland as a financial hub. The extent of the Asians' determination has become evident in recent days in the banking strongholds of Zurich and Geneva. U.S. officials trying to prevent a bigger Middle East war are issuing an unusual warning to Hezbollah: Don’t assume that Washington can stop Israel from attacking you FDIC warns that 63 Banks have been added to the “Problem List” Cocoa posts one of the largest decline in 40 years. Choccy back on the menu Chinese Car Prices are falling at the fastest speed since data began being recorded in 2002 Gold could hit $3,000 by the end of 2025 says Bank of America Exclusive: Trump reviews plan to halt US military aid to Ukraine unless it negotiates peace with Moscow | Reuters There Are 63 'Problem Banks' and $517 Billion in Unrealized Losses: FDIC - Business Insider Macron warns of ‘civil war’ if far left or far right wins – POLITICO US to Hezbollah: Don’t count on us to stop an Israeli attack (msn.com) David Rosenberg on X: "The Bank of America announced their expectations of Gold surpassing the $3000 mark, something my team here at Rosenberg Research predicted and published a detailed special report on just a couple of months ago: "Why Gold is Glittering and Why is it headed for $3000 (or Higher)". https://t.co/ZVQRuBJamQ" / X (twitter.com) Brussels accuses Apple of breaking EU competition rules (ft.com) Opinion: Warren Buffett and other billionaires are buying blue-chip energy stocks. Here’s why. - MarketWatch US banks' construction loan delinquencies hit highest level in at least 3 years | S&P Global Market Intelligence (spglobal.com) Mt.Gox Bitcoin Repayments worth $9 billion revealed (coinspeaker.com) Bitcoin drops by 3.5% as German government sells off $325 million BTC - Nairametrics Key questions ahead of presidential debate: Can Biden perform and can Trump be boring? | AP News Liechtenstein Gold Trader Sues US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (finews.com) Chinese network laundered millions for Sinaloa cartel, prosecutors say - Los Angeles Times (latimes.com) China warns U.S. it may fight back against tech investment restrictions (qz.com) Zelensky sacks senior military commander (bignewsnetwork.com) Storm damage to major Swiss motorway may impact summer travel - SWI swissinfo.ch Strewth! this was wild Switzerland must adapt to changing flood risks, warns Swiss hydrologist - SWI swissinfo.ch Wegovy helped women lose more weight than men with heart condition: study (qz.com) From Farm to Fuel: inside Eni’s African… | Transport & Environment (transportenvironment.org) Utilizing castor oil produced in arid regions of Africa as a source of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) presents a promising pathway for decarbonizing jet fuel. Unlike corn ethanol, castor oil does not compete with food production, and the current availability of waste vegetable oils is inadequate to meet more than the EU's 2% SAF requirement in jet fuel starting from January 1, 2025 Hong Kong is Breathing Down the Neck of the Swiss Financial Center (finews.asia) #NVDA - we can go back to trend - this would hurt a few late momentum #SOX buyers - but why not