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Fed Minutes show greater confidence about jobs and inflation, still not sure what the neutral rate is, so they cut rates anyway, NFP next week will define Dec meeting which is 50/50 at mom for markets, anything goes. Markets : U.S will continue to favour Thech dominance, Musk, AI etc etc, China seems to be catching up, while Europe is stuck in the mud for years to come, unless they go (fast) the Draghi way.. >>> EURJPY breaking down, EURCHF hardly even seems to catch a bid (for long), EURUSD 1.05 big area, let's see what NFP and FED do in Dec (EU data is very poor no matter how you slice it. Equity markets may struggle a little into Dec, all about momentum, which almost everyone sees as bullish into Dec (beware if consensus gets a reason to shift view!!) Bessent suggests countries get sorted into 3 tiers and that tariffs function similar to sanctions. You play nice, you get lower tariffs. You buy Russian oil, you get higher tariffs. Trump's Trade chief advocates strategic decoupling from China, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested that Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own, overall Trudeau has already spoken to Trump and so has the Mexican leader, regarding border check..... Greece 5y bonds cheaper than France's 5y, Bund/OAT new highs again Walmart, the nation's largest private employer, rolls back DEI under pressure Asked whether President Trump will alter the trajectory of American oil production, ExxonMobil head of upstream says: “Radical change is unlikely.” >>> ''drill, baby, drill mode doesn't seem all that likely Rapidly depleting gas reserves and looming supply cuts from Moscow have the makings of a fresh energy crisis for Europe Trump’s pick for U.S. Treasurer largest position - on 4th Nov? Gold "I think we're in a long-term bull market in Gold. We're seeing reserve accumulation by CBs. I follow it closely. It's my biggest position. Even I was surprised when Poland said they want to take their Gold reserves to 20%." California plan excludes Tesla from new EV tax credits, governor's office says Relax Germany’s debt brake, says Angela Merkel, says the person who introduced them into constitution 56% of Americans think stock prices will trade higher over the next 12 months, the most in history /Conference Board Macron expects the Barnier government to fall New Zealand's central bank cut rates for a third time in four months on Wednesday and flagged more substantial easing, including a likely half percentage point reduction in February, as inflation moderated to around the bank's target Live updates: Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire takes effect in Lebanon, war in Gaza | CNN Israel-Hezbollah permanent ceasefire has been accepted, Biden says Live updates: Ukraine-Russia war, US allows Kyiv to make long-range missile strikes into Russia | CNN Trudeau Panics Amid Trump's Massive Tariff Threat, Calls Emergency Meeting That didn't take long Relax Germany’s debt brake, says Angela Merkel Fed Minutes Show Greater Confidence About Jobs and Inflation Trump taps Jamieson Greer as US trade representative as ramps up tariff plans | Reuters Mexico vows tit-for-tat tariffs against Trump ‘until we put at risk common businesses’ | Fortune New Zealand cuts rates by 50 bps, flags further easing | Reuters « Le gouvernement va tomber » : Macron s’attend à une chute de Barnier - Le Parisien Walmart pulls back on DEI efforts, removes some LBGTQ merchandise Michael Pettis on X: "1/14 It is hard to pick up a newspaper in China without seeing exhortations to increase consumption and assurances that consumption is inexorably rising, but while there is the occasional reference to the difficulty of... https://t.co/37Il24vsWj " / X modest proposal on X: "Bessent suggests countries get sorted into 3 tiers and that tariffs function similar to sanctions. You play nice, you get lower tariffs. You buy Russian oil, you get higher tariffs. Also suggests creating bonds for NATO and other allies to buy to prefund our defense of them. https://t.co/pZTGIaA5hd " / X Starmer declares Britain ‘simply isn’t working’ and unveils plan to slash benefits bill | The Independent >>> this can't go on for much longer... While unemployment stands at almost 1.5 million, economic inactivity has also soared to more than nine million, with 2.8 million people out of work due to long-term sickness – a major driver of the rise in joblessness since the pandemic. Europe energy crisis: natural gas prices jump as Russia cut looms | Fortune Let's hope not !! Norsk Hydro Pulls Plug on Green Hydrogen and Battery Projects - Bloomberg California plan excludes Tesla from new EV tax credits, governor's office says

Trump starts his negotiations ! Plenty of time to hear counteroffers ! he does as most government do, negotiate, though he loves doing it for everyone to know and see. To Canada and Mexico, in an effort to force them to crack down on illegal immigration and drug smuggling into the US, to China until the government there blocks smuggling of the synthetic opioid fentanyl from the country Trump Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent spoke on "Capital Allocators" podcast the day before the US election / Podcast below Markets : MXN weakened approx 2% overnight, which is nothing compared to 2016 when it weakened 10%, USDCAD well above 1.40+ now, the arrival of Bessent though hit the 'debasement' trade a little (Gold, BTC etc) OIL MARKET: JPMorgan releases quite a bearish view of the oil market for the next couple of years. The bank sees Brent averaging ~$73 a barrel next year and $61 in 2026. “Crucially, these forecasts assume that OPEC+ stays put at current production levels,” SNB's Schlegel also echoed previous remarks that the SNB doesn’t exclude taking borrowing costs negative again if necessary Joe Lonsdale / States and cities are hiding trillions in debt through accounting tricks that would land private sector CEOs in jail. Time to expose the scandal / Thread MicroStrategy spends $5.4 billion buying another 55,000 bitcoins Japan PM Ishiba calls on businesses for big wage rises next year Marine Le Pen might be about to wreck the eurozone. France’s far-right presidential hopeful is threatening to cause economic and political turmoil by toppling Michel Barnier’s young government UK stocks are set to outpace their European peers, according to some of Wall Street’s biggest institutions, with the London market seen as better placed to weather the fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff Trump threatens China, Mexico and Canada with new tariffs Joe Lonsdale on X: "1/ States and cities are hiding trillions in debt through accounting tricks that would land private sector CEOs in jail. Time to expose the scandal. To stop crony leaders from hiding massive debts, the incoming administration might fix our misguided govt accounting standards." / X Trump Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent spoke on "Capital Allocators" podcast the day before the US election. During this interview he stated the following: " I think we're in a long-term bull market in Gold.  We're seeing reserve accumulation by Central Banks. I follow it closely. It's my biggest position. Even I was surprised when the Central Bank of Poland said they want to take their Gold reserves to 20%. " Scott Bessent - Macro Maven - Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry - Apple Podcasts #GOLD #XAUUSD Gold Telegraph ⚡ on X: "IS THE UNITED STATES CONSIDERING A GOLD-BACKED TREASURY INSTRUMENT? 🇺🇸 Some interesting coincidences... “We are going to have to have some kind of a grand global economic reordering.” Scott Bessent, the incoming Treasury Secretary, is stepping into the spotlight to manage the https://t.co/LUFphhhRfb " / X Japan PM Ishiba calls on businesses for big wage rises next year | Reuters Swiss central banker wants to boost equity to head off risks - SWI swissinfo.ch Seven lessons from the November 2024 Swiss referendums - SWI swissinfo.ch Marine Le Pen might be about to wreck the eurozone – POLITICO Citigroup slashes promotions to overhaul bank Anton Gerashchenko on X: "I recommend reading through. The overall picture is very telling. ‼️ Bankruptcies, losses, and optimization of the largest and most important enterprises and banks are happening in Russia. In 2025, Russians will face a new series of losses and bankruptcies. The reason is not https://t.co/79I6cT8RLQ " / X MicroStrategy spends $5.4 billion buying another 55,000 bitcoins Jersey Mike's gets an $8 billion boost. What's next? Japan's Shikoku Bank: Controversial Seppuku Pledge May Have Just Been Historical | the deep dive

Trump's new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "We are going to decide whether we are going to grow our way out of this debt burden, and I think we can, through deregulation, energy independence & dominance in the US, and a growth mindset. I feel very strongly that this is the last chance to grow ourselves out of this." >>>> He will need more than business as usual to accomplish his goals. Deficits less than 3% of GDP? We are at 8% or more now (and 3% GDP growth and 3mio more barrels of crude daily) That will mean some HUGE cuts and lots of growth, overall reaction as expected, ie most important thing SUPRESS vol (MOVE index in particular), policies are overall disinflationary, tariffs threat are a negotiation How China Could Strike Back At Trump's Tariffs In the U.S. 40% of homes are entirely mortgage-free (similar in UK).. Homeowners are in a strong position, with the average loan-to-value ratio under 50% Japan’s $250bn stimulus plan seeks to encourage more work and spending Sharp raising of threshold before earnings are taxed is key measure in first major initiative of new Ishiba government #MSTR story is fascinating . .. "I don’t see how this is sustainable. But I’m also not smart enough to know what breaks this." U.S. Stocks see largest annual inflow in history of $448 Billion (and the year isn't over ), meanwhile Corporate Bond Spreads have dropped to the lowest level in 26 years Russia recruits hundreds of Yemeni Houthis for war against Ukraine – FT Ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah is ‘very close,’ regional source says, as Lebanon death toll climbs Need any of the big houses 2025 outlooks ? let me know xTrends on X: "Trump's new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "We are going to decide whether we are going to grow our way out of this debt burden, and I think we can, through deregulation, energy independence & dominance in the US, and a growth mindset. I feel very strongly that this is the https://t.co/aCDFdAzjjz " / X Trump's national security pick: I'm on same page as Jake Sullivan about 'our adversaries' - POLITICO Lutnick’s Cantor in Talks With Tether About Bitcoin Lending Program (USDT) - Bloomberg Japan’s $250bn stimulus plan seeks to encourage more work and spending Janet Yellen exiting office, leaving mess behind for Trump team Elections have consequences - especially in 2024 Rachel Reeves needs to be able to sell her borrowing to the market CBI boss to warn Budget tax rises will ‘hit growth’ among UK firms | The Independent Russia's inflation is so bad that people are stealing butter Russia fires commander for false claims about progress of war in Ukraine, military bloggers say Ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah is ‘very close,’ regional source says, as Lebanon death toll climbs Seven lessons from the November 2024 Swiss referendums - SWI swissinfo.ch Far-right candidate takes shock lead in Romania presidential election How China Could Strike Back At Trump's Tariffs '' America's industries, including defense, outsourced tens of thousands of key parts to China during the past 20 years. US manufacturers don't produce capacitors, accumulators, pumps, compressors, switching equipment and other essential equipment for US electrical utilities.'' The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Everyone is talking about, MicroStrategy, $MSTR: The stock is up more than EVERY S&P 500 component in 2024 with just $116 million in quarterly revenue. In fact, $MSTR is now up nearly TRIPLE as much as Nvidia YTD. What is MicroStrategy doing and is it a bubble? (a thread)" / X Ritholtz Wealth on X: "What is Michael Saylor Doing? "I don’t see how this is sustainable. But I’m also not smart enough to know what breaks this." https://t.co/463B7YAkJF by @michaelbatnick https://t.co/0Nior9Rkn3 " / X Gold247 Update: Creating the blueprint for digitalised gold | World Gold Council Angela Merkel on Putin, Trump and defending her legacy

Markets survived the NVDA earnings ! Markets relatively calm (Bonds, eq), perhaps a slight edge to sell rallies/reduce risk going into thanksgiving, there will be big UST auctions into Thanksgiving which could unsettle a few things, also headlines out of UKR/RU could well keep markets nervy going into weekend Eurozone wages rise by 5.4% in third quarter . ECB forecasts growth in negotiated salary deals to slow after biggest increase since 1990s. Low growth and high debt risk Eurozone debt crisis, ECB warns USTs/30yBonds lower again with yields pushing above 4.60%, early next week, have Thanksgiving auctions to focus minds >> tough sells during the quiet Holiday week >>> Two of the world’s biggest foreign holders of US government debt offloaded a pile of Treasuries in the third quarter as they rallied before the presidential election UK : How many farmers will actually be affected by the changes to inheritance tax? Archegos founder sentenced to 18 years in prison >>> Found guilty of fraud or guilty of loosing the wrong people money? He isn’t the only person that uses TRS for the same reasons and def not the only guy that didn’t tell his PB what his overall positioning was. Fact is the prime banks were less than average at their job France's Le Pen threatens to topple government on cost-of-living concerns Biden administration moves to forgive $4.7 billion of loans to Ukraine Corporate insiders cash in on post-election US stock market surge. Insider sales reach all-time high as executives from Goldman Sachs to Tesla lock in equity gains U.S. Department of Justice asks judge to force Google to sell off Chrome internet browser JPY : Japan's largest insurer to raise expected interest rates for the first time in 40 years Ukraine fires British-French Storm Shadow missiles into Russia for first time, say reports Israel-Hamas war: US vetoes UNSC resolution on ceasefire Corporate insiders cash in on post-election US stock market surge Eurozone wages rise by 5.4% in third quarter ECB warns low growth and high debt risk Eurozone crisis Japan and China Dump US Treasuries Before Trump’s Victory Exclusive: China advisers call for steady 5% 2025 economic growth goal, stronger stimulus | Reuters France's Le Pen threatens to topple government on cost-of-living concerns | Reuters Biden administration moves to forgive $4.7 billion of loans to Ukraine | Reuters Billionaire Gautam Adani charged with fraud, bribery in New York The Rest Is Money on X: "How many farmers will actually be affected by the changes to inheritance tax? @DanNeidle does the math... https://t.co/lf5hlDRr2Z " / X >>> not many... Ole S Hansen on X: "EIA's weekly report showed the biggest drop in #crudeoil production (-0.2mbd) since January due to Hurricane Rafael. Inventories (+0.5mb) cont. a seasonal rise while exports (+0.9mbd) and imports (+1.2mbd) both rose. Implied demand (4-wk avg.) for #gasoline and diesel both fell, https://t.co/sdMti1SVaX " / X Archegos founder sentenced to 18 years in prison Nvidia beats earnings expectations as investors eye demand for Blackwell AI chips Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report Q3 2025 Ofwat rules out customers paying £195,000 Thames Water boss bonus - BBC News

If Milton Friedman was alive today and part of DOGE, which dept would he keep ? watch this great video below from long while back.. >> the likes of #Milei certainly read it and did it...! ECB's Panetta: Still a long way from the neutral rate Trump's tariff policies have hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin feeling 'very anxious' Trump picks Dr. Oz to run Medicare and Medicaid, Linda McMahon for Education, Lutnick for Commerce Watch FT's ''' We've revamped our Ukraine war in maps page on the 1,000th day anniversary. Stay up to date will all the latest developments''' German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has said damage to two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea looks like an act of sabotage and a "hybrid action", without knowing who is to blame."...shall we take a few guesses.. G20 failure to explicitly back fossil fuel transition upsets COP29 talks Iran has agreed to stop producing uranium enriched close to the level required for nuclear weapons, a sign they ready to resolve a standoff with the West ? MicroStrategy bought $4.6 billion in bitcoin over the last week, the largest purchase by the crypto hedge fund to date. Its total bitcoin holdings now top $29 billion, thoughts? #Northvolt : The FT has some good articles on how incredibly badly this was run. It wasn’t able to actually deliver promised product, yet just kept raising money from a series of new investors, using the old investors as their “credibility” backstop, VW, GS, BlackRock, Siemens, JPM as well as Canadian, German taxpayers and all Danes since they forced to own the co through the giant ATP pension fund, on the line, where was the diligence ? . Charlie Bilello on X: "If Milton Friedman was alive today and part of @DOGE... -Department of Agriculture: Abolish -Department of Commerce: Abolish -Department of Education: Abolish -Department of Housing & Urban Development: Abolish -Department of the Interior: Abolish -Department of Labor: Abolish https://t.co/nZEVDYRVqD " / X    maybe Musk listened to this interview with MIlton..in fact most likely ECB's Panetta calls for lower rates, forward guidance G20 failure to explicitly back fossil fuel transition upsets COP29 talks Trump’s demolition of the US state Trump picks Dr. Oz to run Medicare and Medicaid, Linda McMahon for Education, Lutnick for Commerce Ken Griffin says Donald Trump's tariffs make him 'very anxious' Yahoo Finance on X: "MicroStrategy bought $4.6 billion in bitcoin over the last week, the largest purchase by the crypto hedge fund to date. Its total bitcoin holdings now top $29 billion. https://t.co/qtWABG0mnn " / X >>> all very happy for the trade to work, many are for sure, but if that is not finance insanity then nothing ever will >>> so it's like this, MSTR stock goes up, Saylor sells shares, the more shares he sells the more BTC he can buy, the more BTC he buys and BTC prices fo up the more the MSTR share buy rally, repeat, and repeat.....when does the music stop ? Steven Bernard on X: "NEW: We've revamped our Ukraine war in maps page on the 1,000th day anniversary. Stay up to date will all the latest developments. Huge thanks to @MissNessaBrown and @ChristopherJM for making the page possible https://t.co/dvzIvDaBwT #dataviz #gistribe https://t.co/eM816Jm0xL " / X Germany suspects sabotage over severed undersea cables in Baltic - BBC News Sabotage suspected after Baltic Sea telecoms cable C-Lion1 suddenly stops working | World News | Sky News Details of Baltic Sea Cable Incident Remain Murky as Danish Coast Guard Shadows Chinese Vessel Spanish police arrest ex-fraud chief after €20m found in walls of his house | Spain | The Guardian Spanish police arrest '''ex-fraud chief after €20m found in walls of his house'''.. . Heseltine issues Trump warning to Starmer with urgent appeal to push for Brexit reset | The Independent Office for National Statistics (ONS) on X: "Public service productivity in Quarter 2 2024 is estimated to be 8.5% below its pre-#COVID19 pandemic peak in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019. https://t.co/4Wou8oMYHU " / X WHY ?... UK should use Farage as ‘bridgehead’ to Trump and Musk, says Mandelson Ukraine war latest: US embassy in Kyiv closes after 'specific' threat; Biden approves use of US anti-personnel mines | World News | Sky News John O'Connell on X: "Investors (non-farmers) were responsible for 56% of UK farmland purchases last year. (Strutt & Parker) Farmers are being squeezed out. Not by IHT, but by tax-dodgers. Those same tax-dodgers who are now supported by, er, farmers. https://t.co/B4X1rBF5y8 " / X THE DEBATE AND THE RAGE WILL GO ON ! How many farms would be affected by Budget changes? Boost for Labour as deportations of foreign offenders 'rise sharply' Maersk retrofits its first container ship to methanol ‣ WorldCargo News Northvolt’s future hangs in balance as bankruptcy looms Walmart posts Q3 earnings beat as it wins shoppers at every income level Nestle isn't afraid of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Trump's Health Secretary

Trump Team Weighs Pairing Warsh at Treasury, Bessent on NEC >>> Warsh is a former FED hawk, not a friend of tariffs, unlikely to say Yes to all Trump wants, which more often than not is much higher tariffs and low interest rates >>> ongoing speculation regarding Trump team and what it means for markets (a lot being -as least partly- priced in already, including tariffs=higher usd, but it has hit some big levels like 1.05 EURO, 7.25 CNH etc already.. . ), the Gilets Jaunes will be more active again in France into year-end, German snap election next, UKR-RU ( lower crude price could exacerbate problems in russian economy ) focus and Israel all in play in the background for the eventual 'talks & meetings' with TrumpTeam Warren Buffett loves pizzas Jamie Dimon says bankers are 'dancing in the street' after Donald Trump's election win. Wall Street is expecting a more friendly, deregulatory environment under Trump Social movements: will the yellow vests come back in force thanks to a tense social context? UAE becomes second-largest gold hub with over $129 billion in trade (overtakes U.K.) MS's team with a 6,500 base case for the S&P by year-end 2025 and 7,400 bull case. There are some big ranges but a clear preference for US risk in all cases (see below) Bank of America says the S&P 500 is statistically expensive by almost every measure Dental supply stock surges on RFK’s anti-fluoride stance, activist involvement John Bolton insists Switzerland should join NATO China to address world’s overcapacity concerns by cutting export-tax rebate. Move seen discouraging vicious low-price competition and outsized industry expansions, and Chinese manufacturer profits could take a hit Trump Team Weighs Pairing Warsh at Treasury, Bessent on NEC Probably the favorite now...! Trump continues to roll out cabinet appointments, when do Senate confirmations start? Seems bit late ! to then have to change anything... longway to go then... Confirmations are set to take place at the beginning of January when the new Congress begins . The whole point of these hearings is to get the nominees sworn in by the time Trump takes office on Jan. 20. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway buys Domino's Pizza stock, sells Apple No 10 refuses to say if Rachel Reeves broke ministerial code in CV deception row Social movements: will the yellow vests come back in force thanks to a tense social context? Live updates: Ukraine-Russia war, US allows Kyiv to make long-range missile strikes into Russia | CNN Live updates: Israel-Hezbollah war ceasefire deal, war in Gaza, tensions with Iran | CNN Pfizer, Moderna, other vaccine stocks fall as RFK Jr. gets health secretary nod Dental supply stock surges on RFK's anti-fluoride stance, activist involvement Jamie Dimon says bankers are 'dancing in the street' after Trump's win DOJ Will Reportedly Ask Judge To Force Google To Sell Chrome Browser DJT, Bakkt stocks pop on report Trump Media in talks to acquire crypto trading platform Perfectly normal stuff UAE will be Asia's gold hub in BRICS' new economic corridor: Bin Sulayem | Markets – Gulf News Gold Price: Goldman Says ‘Go for Gold’ as Central Banks Buy, Fed Cuts in ‘25 - Bloomberg Goldman Says ‘Go for Gold’ as Central Banks Buy, Fed Cuts in ‘25 - Bank reiterates forecast for jump to $3,000 an ounce next year - Trump’s policies may augment metal’s bull case, Goldman says China to address world’s overcapacity concerns by cutting export-tax rebate | South China Morning Post Russia economy crumbling with food prices skyrocketing as Putin's problems mount | World | News | Express.co.uk Looks a little shaky, particularly if crude oil heads towards $50 (7) H2 Today News - November #3 | LinkedIn Porter Stansberry on X: "The formerly iconic plane maker known as Boeing is headed for bankruptcy. And the sad part is, this all could have been avoided. The demise of Boeing is a tale of casino capitalism, where corporate executives and their political allies can make reckless gambles with other" / X ''' As for Boeing, in either case, we see no easy way out of its current dilemma. If it does the right thing, including grounding existing planes for safety checks, hiring more workers, and slowing down production to ensure quality and safety over short-term profits, it will struggle to generate enough cash flow to service and repay its $57 billion in debt obligations. And if it continues business as usual, it’s only a matter of time before the next mid-air disaster.''' Airbnb CEO dislikes one-on-one meetings because they turn into 'therapy sessions' | Fortune Lisa Abramowicz on X: "Here come the year-ahead outlooks. Leading the pack: Morgan Stanley’s team with a 6,500 base case for the S&P by year-end 2025 and 7,400 bull case. There are some big ranges but a clear preference for US risk in all cases. https://t.co/uPk1yDyVst " / X The biggest stock market risks in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs Bank of America says S&P 500 is expensive by almost every measure John Bolton insists Switzerland should join NATO - SWI swissinfo.ch

Last night : (hence softer reaction in equity mkts, at a time when the TrumpTrade is has run a pretty decent way already) Chair Powell's prepared text was hawkish, concluding with "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully." #EURJPY getting into levels worth selling again, if you expect ECB to cut more than expected in Dec, and BoJ still talking about raising rates The S&P 500 risk premium (forward earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield) has turned negative for the first time since 2002 , indicating frothy valuations in the US stock market US FTC plans to investigate Microsoft's cloud business BoE chief warns of Brexit consequences as he calls for UK to rebuild EU relations The US monetary gold is owned by the Treasury, not the Fed - the Fed transferred the gold to the Treasury in 1934 in exchange for certificates denominated in dollars Japan’s Economy Slows But Central Bank Still Likely to Raise Rates Fed has time to see what Trump policies mean for the economy, Powell says | Reuters Japan’s Economy Slows But Central Bank Still Likely to Raise Rates Rates Spark: Euro rates driven by ECB cut expectations | articles | ING Think China Stimulus Boosts Domestic Consumption as Trump Tariffs Loom - Bloomberg US election live updates: Donald Trump picks vaccine sceptic RFK Jr as health secretary - BBC News US FTC plans to investigate Microsoft's cloud business | Reuters Supreme Court seems likely to allow class action to proceed against tech company Nvidia Trump victory could ease regulatory path for Musk’s robotaxi, but hurdles remain | Reuters Chancellor's Mansion House speech vows to rip up red tape - saying post-financial crash rules went 'too far' | Money News | Sky News Reeves must go bigger and bolder on local pensions reform Bank of England chief warns of Brexit consequences as he calls for UK to rebuild EU relations The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Warren Buffett is back to buying: For the first time since building a record $325 billion cash balance, Warren Buffett updated his portfolio. In his Q3 2024 portfolio update, Buffett made 2 big BUYS and sold more existing positions. Here's what you need to know. (a thread)" / X The Fed - Does the Federal Reserve own or hold gold? Swiss Growth Slows as Manufacturing Weakness Weighs on Economy - SWI swissinfo.ch Ukraine’s war effort faces uncertain future as Russia mounts record drone strikes Human Rights Watch accuses Israel of mass displacement in Gaza amounting to a war crime | CNN

Overnight : Chinese markets in heavy losses again, Trump Team coming together fast, the Republicans have both Houses, #cleansweep confirmed ! India's world-beating stock market entered a correction this week, down 10% testing 200dma levels, #USDCAD tested 1.40+ first time since early 2020, U.S CPI core still 3.3%, sticky! USDollar pushign higher still #OpenAI, Google and Anthropic Are Struggling to Build More Advanced #AI Musalem says Fed in 'last mile' of inflation fight, but recent data raise risks China is catching up with the West on tech, Microsoft president says Linus Torvalds slams AI as ‘90% marketing and 10% reality’ Big surprise that Senator John Thune becomes Senate Majority Leader - good news re tariffs? last year he co-sponsored bipartisan Bill to start trade deal with UK “Now is time to strengthen our economic and strategic relationship with the United Kingdom…” and The irony of the "Department of Government Efficiency" having two people do one job.... if nothing else, for sure it will be very entertaining ! >>>> Trump's Second Term : For Europe, the Next US President Is a Shock— and a Catalyst for Change Trump is demanding an important change to the Senate confirmation process (Obama and others used them at will ...) Saudi Arabia’s Neom replaces its CEO amid reports of delays and cutbacks #DOGE department is opnly good for #dogecoin Reeves to force UK council pensions to consolidate into 8 ‘megafunds’ . Chancellor to target minimum size for multiemployer defined contribution schemes of £25bn to £50bn Ukraine’s bonds jump as investors bet Trump will end war In October, the Fed reduced its portfolio of assets by $53 billion, hitting $6.99 trillion , 1st time below 7trn since Aug 2020 (top 9trn) French cross-border workers in Switzerland fear ‘discriminatory’ unemployment reform OpenAI, Google and Anthropic Are Struggling to Build More Advanced AI Musalem says Fed in 'last mile' of inflation fight, but recent data raise risks | Reuters Thune, Coons Introduce Legislation to Kick-Start Trade Negotiations with United Kingdom - Press Releases - U.S. Senator John Thune Republicans win House and secure coveted government trifecta Reeves to force UK council pensions to consolidate into 8 ‘megafunds’ Ukraine’s bonds jump as investors bet Trump will end war Ukraine war latest: Moscow signalling Putin's intentions for Ukraine when Trump takes over, analysts say | World News | Sky News Israel-Iran war: Bad news for Israel as Turkish president Erdogan takes big decision, decides to.... How will Trumponomics work out? | PIIE Trying to think through the implications of Trumponomics: deportations, tariffs and lower taxes. Main conclusions. It will not work out as he hopes. But it will also not be the catastrophe some predict. The main issue may be inflationary pressure, setting up a fight with the Fed The man picked as defence secretary wants to purge the Pentagon https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1856709893459464379   Even if the Trump administration actually proposes some of the DOGE recommendations, they mean nothing unless Congress votes to pass them, which it won’t. and this is exactly how it will end Donald Trump Jokes He 'Can't Get Rid' of Elon Musk Amid Growing Influence - Newsweek Trump victory drives gold to near 2-month lows as investors pile into equities, cryptocurrencies Dogecoin soars after Trump makes Elon Musk's DOGE dreams come true Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency is just a consulting gig Linus Torvalds slams AI as ‘90% marketing and 10% reality’ | TechRadar China is catching up with the West on tech, Microsoft president says BlackRock expands tokenized money market fund to Polygon, other blockchains Gold Is Still Wildly Undervalued. Take A Look… | King World News Saudi Arabia's Neom replaces its CEO amid reports of delays, cutbacks Trump’s demand for recess appointments, explained | Vox '''' With the exception of Trump and President Joe Biden, recent presidents have made use of recess appointments; according to the Congressional Research Service , former President Barack Obama made 32 recess appointments, Bill Clinton made 139 recess appointments, and George W. Bush made 171 recess appointments.''' Wall Street bankers to get even bigger bonuses this year French cross-border workers in Switzerland fear ‘discriminatory’ unemployment reform - SWI swissinfo.ch

So musk will lead the 'Department of Government Efficiency, which will be called .... wait for it .... DOGE >>> couldn't make this up.. mind you it's been pumped for a bit, pretty lucrative for Musk ! MAGA punters switched from cash and gold to crypto and #DOGE UST's weakened to what should be the top of the range near 4.5%, that's 85bps HIGHER since FED started to cut interest rates.. #TrumpTrade added to the bond vigilantes' worries and today we get U.S CPI (possibly leaked yesterday?..), we are now just 10 basis points away from the Equity Risk Premium shifting negative >>> IF we were to break up in yields terms, this will really start to worry equity markets, reminder that a 3rd of the entire U.S debt needs to be rolled over next 3 years. USDMXN has risen recently on pretty terrible reforms locally, #trump premium could be added to this trade from here too (risk), overall the far bigger risk from here on (as opposed to in 2021) is the market's extreme valuation in the face of rising rates, back in 2021, yields were near enough to ZERO, today is different, clearly, from here on (most likely) Postelection euphoria takes a breather, (watch out key levels below for corrective action) now all the fun begins as market starts to sort out the actual winners and losers from the expected ones EURUSD : is falling almost identically as it did after the U.S. election in 2016, current expectations of fiscal easing int he US, tariffs on Europe, it is hard to see why the ECB would fight this move >>> also worth noting European Stocks moved lower through their 200D moving average The Netherlands will implement land border controls from December 9th, further challenge to #Schengen Trump builds hawkish team with Rubio and Waltz tipped for top jobs, Musk and Ramaswamy will lead government efficiency group Likely narrow GOP House majority could put Trump’s tax cuts in jeopardy/ RayJames Exxon CEO:Trump should keep U.S. involved in global effort to address climate change 50% of Germans say raising the defence spending to 3-3,5% GDP is just right ! 15% even think that’s not enough! Analysts at BofA and Goldman Sachs just raised their 2024 forecast to $3,000! With potential Fed rate cuts and continued central bank buying, gold could hit record highs Nick Timiraos on X: "Economists who produce detailed inflation forecasts expect the October CPI to show a firmer increase in core prices, with the median forecast pointing to a 0.30% rise (+3.3% Y/Y) The headline CPI is seen rising 0.21% (+2.6% Y/Y) https://t.co/yJ2tqBdb9a " / X CNBC Daily Open: Postelection euphoria takes a breather Exxon CEO says Trump should keep U.S. involved in global effort to address climate change Netherlands to impose land border controls from Dec. 9 - SWI swissinfo.ch Trump builds hawkish team with Rubio and Waltz tipped for top jobs | Trump administration | The Guardian Trump backer John Paulson bows out as possible Treasury secretary pick Trump Says Musk, Ramaswamy to Lead Government Efficiency Effort - Bloomberg Big changes are coming for dollar and emerging markets David P. Goldman on X: "Marco Rubio's September 2024 report, "The World China Made," is the best and most comprehensive readout of China's achievements in high-tech industry and global trade to come out of any branch of the US government in many years. Rubio is a China hawk, but a well-informed and" / X Letter: Farmers’ tax break merely pushed up UK land prices This is the only thing you need to understand about inheritance tax on farmland The Berlin Pulse 2024/25 • Körber-Stiftung Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say Bayer's shares sink to 20-year low on 2025 earnings fall forecast | Reuters Japan is ramping up efforts to revive its once dominant chip industry Look inside Ivana Trump's $22.5 million townhouse Several Swiss Alpine passes close for winter - SWI swissinfo.ch Winter is coming Man jailed for more than three years for loading illegal streaming services on to Amazon Fire Sticks | UK News | Sky News

Overnight : heavy losses in Chinese markets, AUD, disappointment over lack of stimulus weighing on sentiment , chip stocks softer on U.S ordering TSMC to stop providing Chinese clients, ECB's Stournaras & Rehn were pretty dovish, BTC 90K, USD stays firmer vs EURO, CNH, AUD, EU equity markets softer after Asia, U.S pausing (6K gamma) Dogecoin is now more valuable than 94% of companies in the S&P 500 Polish PM to meet French, UK, NATO leaders to discuss Ukraine To put things into perspective: The S&P 500 has closed at an ATH 50 times this year. This puts 2024 well above the long-term average of 18 ATHs per year, although it is still far from a record. (via Apollo) ECB's Rehn dovish : The direction of our policy moves is clear, Stournaras: Trump’s election to adversely affect European economy if he implements campaign promises Brussels to free up billions of euros for defence and security from EU budget , The policy shift would apply to about a third of the bloc’s common budget, or some €392bn from 2021 to 2027, money that is aimed at reducing economic inequality between EU countries Trump expected to tap Marco Rubio for secretary of state , UKR hawk, and Mike Walz National Security, both have a tough stance on China Mind the gap: what it takes to finance a greener future/ECB BofA sees biggest investor sentiment shifts post-US election in latest Fund Manager Survey. Global growth expectations leap from -10% in Oct to 23%, highest since Jul'21; US growth expectations jump from -22% to 28% . Global inflation expectations flip from -44% in Oct to 10%, 1st time since Aug'21. Surge in investors OW US stocks (from 10% to 29%, highest since Aug'13), OW small vs large (6% to 35%). Nvidia's total value, $3.65 trillion, is within a trillion dollars of the total value of Japan's Nikkei 225 Index, which itself is valued at $4.65tn. This is no small feat, as Japan is the second-largest stock market in the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) , that is a pretty insane SoftBank posts blowout quarterly gains at Vision Fund tech arm German lawmakers reportedly near agreement for early election in February Polish PM to meet French, UK, NATO leaders to discuss Ukraine ECB’s Rehn Says December Cut Likely With Disinflation On Track - Bloomberg ECB’s Stournaras Says US Tariffs Would Negatively Impact Europe’s Economy #eurjpy #eurusd World leaders to speak as Cop29 resumes – live updates Elon Musk flexes influence with Donald Trump after election win Elise Stefanik Is Trump's UN Enforcer, and a Gift to Netanyahu - Newsweek Elon Musk is no Kissinger, but may help improve U.S.-China relations, experts say Trump expected to tap Marco Rubio for secretary of state President Trump can close the US Department of Education. Here’s how    stream lining government Michael Pettis on X: "1/10 "“The US trade deficit is a sign of strength of America because it can only prosper with the dollar,” said former WTO chief Pascal Lamy." In fact the idea that the US can "only prosper" with the dollar is near-total nonsense. https://t.co/AtNOIxBE9T via @economics" / X TSMC’s AI chip exports to China blocked by US: Trial Balance | CFO.com SoftBank earnings Q2 2024 Brussels to free up billions of euros for defence and security from EU budget | Report.az The Trump Ukraine Victory Fund: A Proposal - CEPA China planning to cut taxes on home buying: report  | National News | guampdn.com Villa Vie offers 4-year cruise to escape Donald Trump's presidency seems for real.. Won't be cheap!! Mind the gap: what it takes to finance a greener future Archbishop of Canterbury under pressure to resign over church abuse ‘cover-up’ Remote staff sleep longer and work less, says ONS Innovation in Switzerland: What makes it the best? - SWI swissinfo.ch

Week ahead , OPEC report and US CPI (Tue), Powell and US PPI (Thursday), no less than 12 FED speakers all week, ongoing speculation about Trump's plans (Israel war, UKR/Russia war, tariffs, crypto through the roof #endthefed etc) >>> markets ignoring valuations and debt in this pretty total euphoria , USD stays strong too (Lighthizer hawk), and Trump team coming together, QQQ new highs as Tech dudes rule the show, proper #OligarchicCapitalism this looks like, so many #fakenews these days - hard to follow! #EndtheFed Elon Musk endorses plan to let presidents meddle with Federal Reserve after Trump election win FT - Trump needed neither consecutive terms nor crisis to cement his legacy. We will be living in Trumpland for decades Olaf Scholz signals willingness for earlier German confidence vote China NPC Unveils $1.4 trn Debt Swap: lifeline but stopped short of unleashing new big stimulus, keeping room to respond to a potential trade war with Trump, and China inflation surprised to downside: CPI to a lower-than-exp 0.3% YoY in Oct >>> response to Trump >>> China Courts U.S. Allies as Defense Against Trump’s Protectionism, fearing a U.S. tariff barrage, Beijing hopes to use ‘proactive’ tariff cuts and investment offers to draw American partners in Europe and Asia and Draghi wakes up Europe once again: "We need to negotiate with Trump, but all together and not in a scattered order." Restaurant workers' jobs threatened by UK Budget, bosses warn BofA: Cutting corp tax to 15% would boost SPX  EPS by 4%. “Consumer Discretionary would be the biggest EPS beneficiary.” S&P 500 just hit 6K, as US tech funds have seen a record $5 bn of outflows over the last 4 weeks The interest payments on US National Debt have spiked to a record $1.15 trn annually, which is an increase of over 110% over the last 4years or so A new era dawns. America’s tech bros now strut their stuff in the corridors of power | Carole Cadwalladr | The Guardian FX Daily: The name Lighthizer sends tremors through FX | articles | ING Think Markets Hail Trump’s Economics - WSJ CNBC Daily Open: Trump started the rally but he could also halt it We will be living in Trumpland for decades Elon Musk backs '#EndTheFed' after Powell says he won't resign | Fortune Trump tariff threat looms large on many Asian countries, not just China Led By Donkeys on X: "How Musk broke Twitter and helped elect Trump (Location: Tesla European HQ, Amsterdam) https://t.co/eJG3Q8jCSW " / X huh Exclusive | China Courts U.S. Allies as Defense Against Trump’s Protectionism - WSJ Olaf Scholz signals willingness for earlier German confidence vote | Reuters Deutsche Bank: Massen-Abbau, umstrittene Compliance-Bossin – Inside Paradeplatz Trump, Putin speak as Biden plans to lobby Trump to stick with Ukraine | Reuters Was denied, who knows really.. Israel-Hamas war: Middle East crisis latest | World News | Sky News Ukraine war latest: Kremlin denies Ukraine talks with Trump - and says Putin has no plans to talk to president-elect | World News | Sky News The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Something doesn't add up here: Everyone is talking about how the S&P 500 just hit 6,000 for the first time in history. However, US technology funds have seen a RECORD $5 billion of outflows over the last 4 weeks. What is happening with the S&P 500's hottest sector? (a thread)" / X Explainer | ‘Deflationary pressure remains’ for China: 4 takeaways from October’s inflation data | South China Morning Post Hospitality workers' jobs threatened by Budget, bosses warn - BBC News Ministers either don't understand private sector, or don't care Michel Barnier Outlasts the Lettuce: France’s Conservative Prime Minister Steadies Leadership Amid Political Storms Automakers prep for Trump's presidency — and his anti-EV plan Clean Power Hydrogen shares rise on positive news Ignore the Selloff in Gold. Trump’s ‘Chaos Grenade’ Win Will Bring Gains. - Barron's Iran enforces rolling power blackouts as fuel shortages bite Putin Ally Calls for Destruction of America's Critical Infrastructure - Newsweek Anton Gerashchenko on X: "‼️It seems the Russian economy is headed towards a collapse in 2025. And Putin knows this. While the Kremlin likes to pretend that their bloody war economy is doing better than ever, this is far from the truth. In attempts to stop runaway inflation due to increased defense https://t.co/oFY0tjXAMz " / X

Veterans Day on Monday, U.S markets will be closed, we should get more from the PolitBuros package of measures over the weekend too. BoE and FED as expected (might as well it was priced in..), German coalition collapse into the mix (snap election called in Germany Jan 2025) >>> Wild swings this week, as expected, vols softer, triggered yet more buying in eq, huge sector swings on the basis of the 47th President, huge promises were made, now the hard work behind the scenes start... (Ukraine, Iran, illegal immigrants, tax cuts, more spending, and bring inflation way down..not all of it will happen in a hurry, but we are guaranteed some wild times again with Donald 2.0 FOMC recap: The FOMC cut rates 25bp at its November meeting – in line with consensus and market pricing. Powell’s press conference did not offer clear forward guidance for December, Powell says he will not quit even if asked by Trump BoE lowered the Bank Rate from 5.00% to 4.75% as expected. 8 of the 9 MPC members voted for the rate cut. But BoE stopped short of signaling faster easing , warning that the budget could drive up inflation by as much as half a percentage point Republicans widen Senate majority (53), on track to win House China will raise local governments’ debt ceiling to 35.52 trillion yua n, which will allow them to issue six trillion yuan in additional special bonds over three years to swap hidden debt, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Friday/ More in Thread below, WSJ: "The ultimate answer for Beijing probably lies at home. A strong domestic economy is needed to replace export demand and keep capital profitably invested." Trump will give Israel ‘blank check’ which may mean all-out war with Iran, says ex-CIA chief >> see also top two articles from yesterdays daily Putin says Trump’s Ukraine proposals merit attention Opposition parties have made calls for an immediate vote of confidence after Chancellor Scholz sacked Finance Minister Christian Lindner. Losing the vote would pave the way for snap elections Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as job market weakens, inflation cools Fed's Powell says he will not quit even if asked by Trump | Reuters Powell on inflation: "So we're not declaring victory, but we feel like the story is very consistent within inflation continuing to come down on a bumpy path over the next couple of years and settling around 2%. That story is intact and it won't be one or two really good data months or bad data months aren't going to change the pattern at this point now that we're this far into the process." >>>>>>> and yet over the next 18mos or so, the US will likely get about 1% of Fed cuts and a big pro-growth fiscal policy boost from Trump 2.0, pumping an already hot economy >>> no landing, and risk of sustained inflation on high plateau Stagflation: What is it, and is the U.S. economy in it right now? Good recap from SAXO : Morning Brew November 8 2024 | Saxo Republicans widen Senate majority, on track to win House | Reuters Trump will give Israel ‘blank check’ which may mean all-out war with Iran, says ex-CIA chief | US elections 2024 | The Guardian Orbán: Trump victory "visible from Mars," opens unique opportunities for Hungary - The Budapest Times German opposition wants confidence vote now Putin says Trump’s Ukraine proposals merit attention Growing Capital Exodus Is Behind Germany’s Government Breakup - Bloomberg Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on X: "🇨🇳 #China Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress - Summary ➡ China announced a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to refinance local government debt, as Beijing rolls out more measures to support a slowing economy facing new risks from the reelection of" / X China’s Playbook for Trump Tariffs Won’t Work This Time - WSJ UK starting pay cools again, survey shows | Reuters Nissan shares slump after plan to slash jobs, production | Reuters Polymarket 'Trump Whale' made almost $50 million on election bets Video: «Die Kriege, die unter Biden begonnen wurden, müssen beendet werden»: Botschafter Edward T. McMullen über den überwältigenden Sieg von Donald Trump und die Schweizer Neutralität