Site Search

#NVDA tumbles after hours, self inflicted by U.S government , as they ask the company to get a license to export certain chips to China >>> if there was any doubt about U.S- China economic war ! ALL about slowing China down, best be very careful how the U.S is going on about those deals >>> deal or no deal, Trump's TVee entertainment is unlikely to end well >>> as Bessent said, easy deals first, those holding out get worse and worse The European Union and US made little progress in bridging trade differences, with US officials indicating that most US tariffs on the EU will not be removed . The EU has offered to remove all tariffs on industrial goods, including cars, but the US has rejected the proposal, and instead suggested that some tariffs could be offset by increasing investments and exports >>>> the cat is out of the bag !! all clear to see now. .if there was any doubt. . US to demand EU pulls away from China in return for cutting tariffs. Confidential briefing documents identify what US may seek in talks and point to early move on pharma tariffs U.S update : seems neither party can stop spending cash, no-one wants to raise taxes, DOGE seems to eventually yield about $50bn per year in savings on a $7.5trn budget...pretty pathetic...U.S borrows 10% of GBP every year and might even get worse, together with a waning power/influence globally, the USD seems to be doomed to continue to weaken, GOLD up etc. And let's not forget, that within their tariffs talks they always speak about 'currency manipulation', and hence if all hails fail and tariffs fail to bring enough cash, they could weaponize the USD value... Markets : SPX 5500 area top of the range, sell rallies (was already nearly 12% off lows.. U.S. Profit Outlook is now the most unfavorable since November 2007-BofA ), #NVDA news was the trigger last night (down 7% in after hours), knocked whole market back down, together with boosting the usual GOLD, CHF and JPY.. JGB's 30y yields 2.8% #JPY #USDJPY .. still think we could see 120-125 USDJPY in 2025 U.S : 30-year mortgage rates just hit 7.50%, the highest since January UK March CPI +2.6% vs +2.7% y/y expected - relatively good news Tourists are ditching America — and it's set to cost the economy billions The UK has signaled to the EU that it's open to accept the dynamic alignment of rules on agrifood products + supervision of the ECJ over the SPS deal it wants to negotiate. Big shift in UK position - soft rejoin...#gbp France is poised to make a one-off wealth tax permanent in a bid to tackle spiralling national debt The 'fairy tale' problem with Trump's car tariffs, according to an analyst Hong Kong announces suspension of postal service for goods heading to the United States effective April 16th THE UNITED STATES SAYS THERE IS NO RISK OF CHINA WEAPONIZING TREASURIES >>>> for the U.S to even say it out loud... US to demand EU pulls away from China in return for cutting tariffs – The Irish Times Trump's vision for American-made cars is 'fairy tale,' analyst says Nvidia faces $5.5 billion charge as US restricts chip sales to China Decline in travel to the U.S. could cost the country billions World trade: Hong Kong suspends goods shipments to the USA | blue News Boeing stock slips on report that China won't accept its planes UK Signals Openness to EU Court Oversight of Key Food Checks - Bloomberg France to hammer the rich after £1.7bn wealth tax raid Multiple French prisons attacked in response to government’s narco crackdown, ministers say | CNN Office for National Statistics (ONS) on X: "Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% in the 12 months to March 2025, down from 2.8% in February 2025. Read the full article ➡️ https://t.co/JZY8oWX6Jt https://t.co/lu47O4VhMP " / X Geiger Capital on X: "Scott Bessent on Bloomberg: “Chair Powell and I have breakfast every week. We discuss a wide range of things, and we are a long way from any ‘break the glass’ situation.” Bessent and Powell meeting every week. https://t.co/A0eHYMpFkO " / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "China has actually already made an offer, which is that Trump should drop all his tariffs since "liberation day". And I suspect we're about to learn in the next few weeks that they're simply not going to budge from this. https://t.co/62VClBWTQE " / X

“The transatlantic alliance is over,” said an EU official.     The EU has begun treating the US as a security threat. No intelligence sharing. European staff also issued burner phones to avoid espionage Markets : Let's face it, the bond market last week, achieved what diplomacy couldn't...(Pull back on tariffs..)... . Further dealings now ongoing, last night : Trump signalled further tariff relief for US carmakers, he will 'do tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals' and apparently... the EU is reversing its stance and is now open to negotiating a new trade deal with the United States, per POTUS, yet, U.S. announces probe into chip, electronics imports, paving the way for new tariffs >>> VIX back on more 'normal' levels around 30 (markets can live with this), UST yields eased, USD on defensive, equity markets in a new range SPX 5000-100 to 5500-600 range consolidation wouldn't go a miss while we work out all those agreements in principle then trade deals, as per Bessent last night. USD overall remains soft(er), hard to tell why this would change, same for GOLD highs, Silver, XPT, PALL etc GS looking for ZERO U.S growth in 2025 #EURO TWI on all time highs >> ECB has an excuse to be dovish and cut if she wants to #EURIBORS particularly with energy prices down Quant funds struggling in 2025, NO surprise - Quant can't deal with chaos, you can't code chaos or economic wars, let alone on/off, or for however long it maybe on Tariffs war halts US beef exports to China as Australia fills the gap “Look, I’m a very flexible person, I don’t change my mind, but I’m flexible,” Trump told reporters las night ... Very clear—and telling—signals from PBOC-affiliated state media financial times on where China's monetary policy is heading in response to the trade war: “China must accelerate its strategic pivot toward ‘a domestic-led dual-circulation model—NOT resort to RMB depreciation or export subsidies/rebates.”, confirmation, no RMD deval "Since 1990 America has lost over 5mn manufacturing jobs. In that time, it has gained 11.8mn roles in professional and business services, and 3.3mn in transportation and logistical activities, linked to multinational supply chains."-FT A group of small businesses sued President Donald Trump, seeking to block new tariffs that he has imposed on foreign imports in recent weeks EU Commission: "AI Gigafactories" to strengthen Europe as a business location Jim O'Neill considers what other economies can do to offset the effects of the Trump administration's trade warfare Janet Yellen: Bringing back American manufacturing is a “pipe dream.” Harvard says it won’t accept a deal with the White House after admin threatened to cut off $9B in federal funding Donald Trump’s aggressive trade agenda has had a chilling effect on investors’ willingness to back riskier deals, with just $13bn in high-yield bonds and loans issued so far this month JPMorgan CEO Dimon files to sell 133,639 shares of JPM, his last major sale was $233.7 million on February 20th Tariffs war halts US beef exports to China as Australia fills the gap U.S. discloses details on chips probe as it prepares new tariffs South Korea announces over $23 billion for chip sector as Trump tariffs on semiconductor imports loom (LEAD) Bessent says U.S. will negotiate with S. Korea over trade next week, stresses 'first mover advantage' Zero-day options are fueling the unprecedented volatility on Wall Street amid tariff chaos No surprise there Man Group Hedge Funds Losing Up To 15% This Year Show Quant Pain - Bloomberg NO surprise - Quant can't deal with chaos, you can't code chaos or economic wars, let alone on/off, or for however long it maybe on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is prioritizing new trade deals with the U.K., Australia, South Korea, India, and Japan after Trump’s latest tariffs, sources say. Bessent, now a key trade adviser, has already reached out to officials from these countries. Earlier, NEC Director Kevin Hassett said over 10 countries have made "amazing" trade offers following the tariffs. The Treasury declined to comment Four Senate Republicans join with Democrats to rebuke Trump tariff policy in key vote 李其 Lizzi on X: "Very clear—and telling—signals from PBOC-affiliated state media financial times on where China's monetary policy is heading in response to the trade war: “China must accelerate its strategic pivot toward ‘a domestic-led dual-circulation model—NOT resort to RMB depreciation or" / X U.S. businesses sue to block Trump tariffs Fed's Bostic: Bold moves 'in any direction' wouldn't be prudent | Reuters The Promise of American Higher Education - Harvard University President $52bn endowment, they can afford it ? Volodymyr Zelenskyy: The 2025 60 Minutes Interview Trump Drives EU to Extreme Anti-Espionage Measure “The transatlantic alliance is over,” said an EU official. The European Commission is issuing burner phones and basic laptops to some US-bound staff to avoid the risk of espionage, a measure traditionally reserved for trips to China Who Will Drive the Post-American Global Economy? by Jim O'Neill - Project Syndicate EU Commission: "AI Gigafactories" to strengthen Europe as a business location | heise online ‘Overwhelmed’ Germany must take in far fewer asylum seekers, says Merz Goldman Sachs raises end-2025 gold price forecast to $3,700/oz Head of New RFK Jr. Vaccine Study Practiced Unlicensed Medicine on Autistic Kids Trump tariffs on China mean 'irreversible' damage for many businesses George Magnus on X: "Readers content is what you want to look at - and it’s not comprehensive - but have a lol at this ridiculous propaganda" / X

Markets : USDollar breaking down major long-term charts (#EURUSD #USDCHF #DXY), GS & UBS (other will follow) revised GOLD price forecasts higher again (#GDX #SIL ETF's in focus still ! ). Equity markets have a relief rally on possibly delay in tariffs, but beware as confusion is huge and how on earth would you be planning new U.S investments if you were a CEO of a major corporation...most like all on hold.. Trump Team, effectively has NO plan, blatantly clear, no coordination, pure incompetence, split government (Bessent the real danger, if he resigns, then god bless big risk for further rapid BOND and USD losses, although the FED will prob step in eventually) and looks like Elon and Trump are headed for a messy breakup—and the split has already begun (Thread). Donald Trump has almost certainly started a battle he cannot win >>>  the most striking thing is that Trump's fight with China, its allies and RoW ! he has managed to to position the U.S, in such a way that majority in the world , including most of the West, is rooting for China.. astonishing Trump releases a new statement on tariffs: “NOBODY is getting off the hook for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us >>>> NOBODY, unless of course ALL Treasury holders decide to sell a few UBS raises gold price from $3000 to $3500, Goldman re-raises gold target to $3,700 with a base case range topping at $3,950, possibly $4500 by end of 2025 Pension funds in Canada and Denmark are pulling back or hitting pause on their US investments, citing concerns over Trump’s unpredictable policy decisions Beijing has suspended exports of certain rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial for the world’s car, semiconductor and aerospace industries >>> China has a near universal monopoly on rare earth minerals needed for essentially all modern manufacturing. This is a major problem CHART OF THE DAY: Drill, baby, drill doesn’t work at $50-a-barrel China Southern Airlines is jettison its fleet of Boeing 787-8s—10 jets—for $550 million via a Shanghai auction JPM on 20-year bonds: Most sensitive to balance-sheet and leverage constraints -- “dramatic” underperformance “ is a worrisome sign that suggests that banks may be starting to become concerned” Tim Cook explaining why Apple manufactures in China and not the United States. Hint: Tariffs won’t fix this/Thread Italy is experiencing a comeback in Europe : S&P has upgraded Italy’s credit rating from BBB to BBB+, marking another win for PM Meloni FT: Putin’s running out of money to fund his war in Ukraine. Urals crude fell to $50 per barrel , 28% below Russia's 2025 budget projection of $69.70 Farewell to Conventional Rockets–China’s New Plasma Engine Surpasses NASA’s Technology, BIG if true Japan PM warns US tariffs have potential to disrupt global economic order | Reuters China has just shown it can defeat America in a trade war China urges Trump to drop new tariffs China Southern Airlines Accelerates Fleet Restructuring - Travel Radar - Aviation News The airline is replacing 10 yr old Boeings with Airbus jets. No sense paying 125% tariff on Boeing replacement parts. Expect Chinese domestic C919 jetliners also start to sub European parts for Boeing. Italy Wins S&P’s Credit Rating Upgrade in Another Win for Meloni - Bloomberg Agent Self FBI on X: "Looks like Elon and Trump are headed for a messy breakup—and the split has already begun. At a recent cabinet meeting, it was made clear Elon wasn’t invited. But he showed up anyway… how he got in is anyone’s guess. Trump looked him dead in the face and said, “I don’t need https://t.co/maf3R7YNfX " / X Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Pension funds in Canada and Denmark are pulling back or hitting pause on their US investments, citing concerns over Trump’s unpredictable policy decisions. It’s a notable shift, especially considering how much the US stock market relies on global investors. As of early 2025, https://t.co/8e2MnzjTcE " / X Visegrád 24 on X: "Trump releases a new statement on tariffs: “NOBODY is getting off the hook for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst! There was no Tariff "exception" https://t.co/EnlW5SBEXm " / X Fareed Zakaria on X: "The coming negotiations over tariffs will inevitably result in an orgy of corruption. The American economy is being transformed from the leading free market in the world to the leading example of crony capitalism. My take: https://t.co/Nl0UOSNEjm " / X Javier Blas on X: "CHART OF THE DAY: Drill, baby, drill doesn’t work at $50-a-barrel. My @Opinion column on how President Trump risks killing the American oil export boom: https://t.co/0qucnqOjJg   https://t.co/Jz162zfKAX " / X Spencer Hakimian on X: "Tim Cook explaining why Apple manufactures in China and not the United States. Hint: Tariffs won’t fix this. https://t.co/iwMauU4szk " / X Farewell to Conventional Rockets–China's New Plasma Engine Surpasses NASA's Technology, Paving the Way for Faster Mars Missions

FED independence is PARAMOUNT , ''supreme court Roberts nudges Fed closer to loss of confidence'', came out last night, the bond and USD reaction was clear.. Markets : UST long-end breaking #duration, plenty of rumours China and/or Japaan selling treasuries, it is big whoever it is..FED & Treasury better have a plan ready in case it really gets out of control #36trn .... #GDX gold miners are still the way forward! more than ever with cheap energy prices.. USD could really break down, trade / hedge via options going forward, it will be volatile, expect the unexpected, it could really get ugly, though I just can't see any of this last 90days, unless the rhetoric is properly toned down and adults enter the room to execute in a professional manner, we can hope, growth slowdown to be expected, no companies will make any major investment, they will wait for clarity.. Earnings reports will be missing a look of any kind of outlook, quite understandably (like after covid) Gordon Brown calls for ‘economic coalition of the willing’ to tackle Trump tariffs Fundamentally, the extreme tariffs on China are the exact same mistake as the sanctions on Russia and will have the same principal effect: to prove in the eyes of the world the impotence of the United States/Thread Trade shake-up: Bessent leads on trade as Lutnick plays ‘bad cop’ — and Navarro is sidelined... was pretty clear by Wednesday! Recent Fed paper on Treasury Market Dysfunction Summary .../Thread Beijing Has Escalation Dominance in the U.S.-China Tariff Fight “I would not back down from Trump, I would shove it on him very hard. That’s the only thing a bully really understands,he’s behaving like a Prussian authoritarian @Scaramucci Merz : ''Germany is back on track', „Ganz einfach: Wir wollen Deutschland wieder an die Spitze bringen.“ China and the European Union have begun negotiations to eliminate EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles . As the US ramps up tariffs on China, the EU is attempting to reduce tariffs on China in an effort to build trade relations Carney : Throughout our history, Canada and Europe have worked together to build up our economies and bolster our shared security. In this time of global uncertainty, we’re focused on making our relationship even stronger JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon, just suggested that we are headed towards a recession that he thinks “we will see more credit problems than people have seen in a long time.” UK : The PM will formally approve investment for the construction of Sizewll C in Suffolk , It will provide up to 7% of UK's energy at cost of around £20bn Crude : after Wed's U-turn, it is telling us that growth is being re-priced/lower growth Peter Navarro wrote 5 books and continually referenced his economic expert Ron Vara. Ron Vara is a fictional character....it's true... §   Morgan Stanley maintains its base case assumption of a slow-growth/firm-inflation environment in its US economic outlook even after Trump enacted a 90-day pause for reciprocal tariffs.  This base case assumption is assigned a 55% probability; alternative scenarios include a 30% probability for a mild recession THE SHORT BEAR on X: "The FEDs independence is paramount to a well functioning economy. This would be extremely dangerous. This administration has shown it is overestimating its expertise. We want a democracy led by the best in each field. A system with one breaker is not a safe one. https://t.co/MKHZ1fGgiU " / X Gordon Brown calls for ‘economic coalition of the willing’ to tackle Trump tariffs | Trump tariffs | The Guardian Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose: Beijing Has Escalation Dominance in the U.S.-China Tariff Fight EU 'will not back down' in face of tariffs, French trade chief says - Nikkei Asia Arnaud Bertrand on X: "Fundamentally, the extreme tariffs on China are the exact same mistake as the sanctions on Russia and will have the same principal effect: to prove in the eyes of the world the impotence of the United States. Which is pretty ironic when you think about it as in many ways one of" / X WELL worth a read, Fundamentally, the extreme tariffs on China are the exact same mistake as the sanctions on Russia and will have the same principal effect: to prove in the eyes of the world the impotence of the United States. - In other words, Goldman Sachs—which can't exactly be characterized as being biased in favor of "communist China"—believe that tariffs will cost China 0.5% of its GDP and the U.S. 2% of its GDP: the U.S. will be hit 4 times harder! Kantro on X: "Recent Fed paper on Treasury Market Dysfunction Summary ... If the basis trade unwinds suddenly—meaning leveraged investors like hedge funds rapidly exit positions involving long Treasury securities and short Treasury futures—it can lead to severe stress in the Treasury market https://t.co/LMQ4dPzTqS " / X Trade shake-up: Bessent leads on trade as Lutnick plays 'bad cop' — and Navarro is sidelined - POLITICO Basil🧡 on X: "Lmao the amount of SPY calls increased by over 10x literally 10 min before the announcement https://t.co/doKMT0tQvU " / X This is not a coincidence, absolutely no doubt about insider there, Trump posts THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!.. Golden area of corruption, and insider trading..... then caves on tariffs hours later. Market surges. Middle-class investors who sold during the chaos lose big. Insiders win again. This is market manipulation to help his base profit. How is this legal or OK? Rep. Mike Levin on X: "Trump posts THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!—then caves on tariffs hours later. Market surges. Middle-class investors who sold during the chaos lose big. Insiders win again. This is market manipulation to help his base profit. How is this legal or OK? https://t.co/iXs92TRzS5 " / X Keir Starmer set to approve nuclear plant in bid to power up economic growth | The Independent Friedrich Merz on X: "„Germany is back on track.“ (tm) https://t.co/ytsIbckiEK " / X

What happened : 'Retreat, retreat, retreat'... Bessent threatened to resign as his bonds were getting destroyed (when basis trade is on the move it HAS to stop) and stocks for that matter (what's plan c?), and IS now the man together with GOP senators, as it should have been all along (for some reasons Trump chose lunatic Lutnick and Navarro..), Trump folded, which is 'good', the U.S wants -2- things, hurt China and get a tax through, and maker RoW chose between US and China, clear declaration of economic war with China, couldn't be more blatant Markets : immediate reaction on the 90days delay (we had a taste the previous day..), biggest VIX collapse ever and biggest Equity rally ever in a nutshell.. . >>> plenty of 'uncertainty' remains, but market has 90 days to think about it.. even after today’s flip-flop, we’re still looking at the bigliest tariffs since the 1930s.... China will flood cheap goods across the world but not in the U.S ...no need for much trade deals, relatively big benefit for Europe and RoW...!! and U.S LESS competitive therefore.. MASSIVE insider trading no doubt , Lutnick was saying 2days ago 'buy TESLA shares' and yesterday Trump was tweeting 'KEEP COOL? all will be fine..astonishingly clear insider.. Thread : "one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of Trump's presidency" in the sheer level of gaslighting at play: he's trying to make one of the biggest and clearest humiliations in US history look like a win'' The United States tripled its money supply over the past two decades. That’s not some abstract economic trivia. That’s the foundational distortion that shaped every asset class, every risk model, every portfolio built since GFC/Thread below - it has to change AMAZON CANCELS SOME INVENTORY ORDERS FROM CHINA AFTER TARIFFS >>> prepare for massive shortages in the U.S. Justice Department scraps crypto unit as Trump further loosens oversight of digital assets, unreal! But in the long run, if the US no longer wishes to be a debtor nation with huge current account deficits, and instead wants to turn this into a surplus, the we can no longer justify such huge capitalization on the US stock markets , nor can we expect such high demand for US debt Australia rejects China's overture, and reopens free trade talks with EU The White House, Tuesday: The President has a spine of steel that will not break. The White House, Wednesday: Errr, it broke. We’re pausing reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. The White House, Thursday: Gone golfing Arnaud Bertrand on X: "It is indeed "one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of Trump's presidency" in the sheer level of gaslighting at play: he's trying to make one of the biggest and clearest humiliations in US history look like a win. But there's no amount of lipstick that can disguise this pig." / X ubs.com/content/dam/assets/wm/global/cio/market-insights/paul-donovan-daily-insights/2025/dailyupdate-20250410.mp3?campID=UC:E:601227:601241:269449152:0:1979213785:1979243225:en:0 Donovan puts it nicely : retreat retreat retreat Germany's Merz unveils coalition deal to spur growth, tackle migration | Reuters Rand Paul on X: "Watch my morning interview with @CNBC about why tariffs are bad for our economy: https://t.co/WhzQdDVLqT " / X Truth Details | Truth Social Sergei Perfiliev 🇺🇦 on X: "Quickest explanation of a basis trade and how it blows up. What is the Basis Trade? It's an arbitrage trade aiming to profit from the price difference between a bond and its futures contract. "Basis" means "a spread". For instance, if a futures is trading at a higher price https://t.co/PDRHoxH0T0 " / X Shay Boloor on X: "MY THEORY ON WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING The United States tripled its money supply over the past two decades. That’s not some abstract economic trivia. That’s the foundational distortion that shaped every asset class, every risk model, every portfolio built since GFC. We spent https://t.co/WHEbHQ0Ju7 " / X The truth is, until China blinks -- or Trump backs down -- this is going to be the backdrop. Not because the market is broken. But because it’s working. It’s doing its job. Pricing the regime, not just the risk >>> .......Trump as to go ! (>>> or now folded..) Justice Department scraps crypto unit as Trump further loosens oversight of digital assets | Fortune Crypto Bob Elliott on X: "US treasury market dynamics shifted abruptly the morning of April 4th, coinciding with China's retaliatory tariffs. While no one knows for sure if Chinese efforts are driving the shift, escalation from a trade war to a capital war would have devastating consequences. Thread." / X Jamie Dimon says a recession is 'likely outcome' from Trump's tariff turmoil Forget shares, bonds and tariffs. Here is what you should really worry about - Yanis Varoufakis This simply cannot and will not happen, otherwise Armageddon will be seen as a walk n the park Izabella Kaminska on X: "1/ Amid the endless and breathless commentary today, worth remembering this is a giant game of high stakes Liar’s Poker. It’s also an exercise in mutual assured economic destruction. MAED. This means it’s not about markets or valuations, it’s almost exclusively about game" / X and Trump folded Flip FLop Ackman Bill Ackman on X: "The benefit of @realDonaldTrump’s approach is that we now understand who are our preferred trading partners, and who the problems are. China has shown themselves to be a bad actor. Our counterparties also have a taste of what life is like if they don’t take down their trade" / X

Tariffs 'strategy' ...backfiring on Trump >>> MUCH steeper UST curve, UST 10y is not up 60bp in 3days!! this is absolutely massive, maybe China selling, whatever the reason(s), talked about last few days/weeks, the world is losing faith in the US administration, fire Trump! That Bessent/Miran plan isn't really working! make is make sense! The Senate needs to stand up and put the breaks on Trump & CO, becoming isolated.. Grundlach gets it - see short video below USD : Once the long-end goes, the currency might follow, a little like in EMG market ! Equity markets not down much in China actually, FED might get involved today, or the Senate might finally wake up and stop Trump in his crazy tracks This is what you call a nightmare situation: Treasury yields are now up +10% since April 3rd while the S&P 500 is down -10%. The 10-year note yield is currently up 55 basis points in 48 HOURS. In other words, we now have HIGHER rates with stocks pricing-in a recession. Something broke this week #duration #extreme divergence between SPX and long-end UST's China calls Trump tariffs 'economic bullying'; warns tactics will 'backfire' From mayhem in the markets to chaos in global security, his is what 2.5 months of Trump the sequel have created so far/ C4news, hard to disagree #TSLA is Musk’s foundation. Every empire he built—SpaceX, Neuralink, Starlink, X—leans on the cash flow, market hype, and illusion of growth from Tesla. If Tesla goes, it all goes/thread below Trump’s golden age: Microsoft has cancelled plans to build 3 new data centers worth $1 billion in Ohio, wakey wakey Trump China & Brazil Officially Announce to Trade in Local Currencies China and India are speeding up payments in their local currencies too Video below : Prof. Jeffrey Sachs : War and Tariffs >>> well worth a listen, 25mins #MSTR : Michael Saylor has $6 billion in Q1 unrealized losses . That’s not a typo. Strategy just disclosed its biggest quarterly loss ever — and it’s not just a bad bet!! EU trying to replace Musk’s Starlink in Ukraine – Politico The tech tycoon has previously threatened to shut down the communications system that Kiev’s forces depend on (1) Victor Jones on X: "Gundlach gets it. https://t.co/qD4ye4Vv00 " / X (1) Brad Setser on X: "Lots of rumors (best I can tell without strong supporting evidence) of China selling the 10y (and more implausibly, the 30y). A few observations. 1/ China entered Trump's second term with a lot of deposits and bills thread https://t.co/fC0fF87n0x " / X (1) zerohedge on X: "Hi @federalreserve this is what the collapse of the $2 trillion basis trade you encouraged for so many years looks like https://t.co/OiPzWk5tc1 " / X China calls Trump tariffs 'economic bullying'; warns tactics will 'backfire' https://www.linkedin.com/posts/antongolub_michael-saylor-has-6-billion-in-q1-unrealized-activity-7315034932710379521-B0zR/ Michael Saylor has $6 billion in Q1 unrealized losses That’s not a typo. Strategy just disclosed its biggest quarterly loss ever — and it’s not just a bad bet Niall Ferguson: Trump’s Tariffs and the End of American Empire Mario 🇺🇸🇵🇱🇺🇦🇪🇺 on X: "The Tesla Collapse Domino Theory (a.k.a. The Musk Trap): 1.Tesla is Musk’s foundation. Every empire he built—SpaceX, Neuralink, Starlink, X—leans on the cash flow, market hype, and illusion of growth from Tesla. If Tesla goes, it all goes. 2.Musk tried to use MAGA to build his https://t.co/GumCZE0i7w " / X Nicely put, couldn't agree more #TSLA brand at risk clearly https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/brussels-police-arrest-rubio-security-detail-supervisor-after-hotel-fight/ar-AA1Ct0jH?ocid=BingNewsSerp BRICS: China & Brazil Officially Announce to Trade in Local Currencies Prof. Jeffrey Sachs : War and Tariffs

Markets : will only improve with less Lutnick, less Navarro and more Bessent on trade (and what they stand for on tariffs), Trump's tariffs insanity begins to fracture the MAGA cult and he is beginning to freak out, The European Union proposes 25% counter-tariffs on a range of US Imports to take effect beginning on May 16th, Trump ups the ante with China, deadline today >>> economic war at higher levels, Trump creating chaos, weakening alliances, the target remains CHina, always was, Europe on NATO & tariffs (VAT issue Trump can obviously forget about this moronic idea), Trump JUST DOES NOT WANT A TRADE DEAL BETWEEN EUROPE and CHINA... hence the stick between tariffs and leaving NATO (or Europe, Mexico, Canada, UK as taunted recently), trust diminishing amongst big 3, postpone RoA's tariffs discussions by 90 days and keep China is a bit what market pricing here at mom, get deals done, compromise, many Japan going for talks, Asian nations 'folding', Israel obviously too USD : undecided, let's see how goes after US/China bombastic trade war, USDCNH 7.34-high fix! (possible threat of RMD deval and/or UST selling from China), USD/IDR all time highs >>> stay light in risk ahead of this event, both seem to be rather set in their views..Big risk-off days usually favor softer CROSSJPY's UST move yesterday was HUGE : why ? hard tariffs/slowdown globally/more debt to the pile / 9bn to roll this year going to be tricky, let alone if Trump puts on another 2.5bn for tax cuts! / China possibly selling / big steepening again / fact is the move yesterday was off the chart almost , and long-end #duration does not really work as a safe heaven, Trump losing patience and everyone know it was a silly idea, you can't manipulate the long-end for long when fundamentals are deteriorating, even if you crash he economy (au contraire you will need to issue more bonds) The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is considering suing the Trump administration to block the implementation of the president’s new tariffs set to go into effect Wednesday, developing story US in direct nuclear talks with Iran, Trump says CEOs think the U.S. is ‘probably in a recession right now,’ says BlackRock’s Larry Fink Harvard : When a university with a $53 billion endowment needs to tap the bond market in this environment, it just tells you just how illiquid their investments really are The European Union wants to abandon the American credit cards Visa and Mastercard, PayPal and Alipay – President of the European Central Bank, Lagarde Jamie Dimon sounds the alarm bell on tariffs >> no later than 2months ago, tariffs were no big deal, 'get over it' France signs a strategic partnership with #Denmark that reaffirms its commitment to Denmark’s territorial integrity and sovereignty #Greenland >>> yups talked about this few weeks back..EU can move fast when they need to ! Vietnam’s zero tariff offer has been rejected by the Trump administration. This offer “means nothing to us.”...just can't make this stuff up.. Global bank regulator group names BoE's Bailey as its next chair This is important int he current trade war, retaliation and for the USD complex China's yuan hits 2023 lows on signs PBOC is tolerant of some weakness Central Huijin leads growing cavalry of stock buyers seeking to maintain market stability | South China Morning Post Trump threatens additional 50% tariffs on China over retaliatory levies | Trump tariffs | The Guardian Peter Navarro says Vietnam's 0% tariff offer is not enough: 'It's the nontariff cheating that matters' China says it will 'fight to the end' after Trump threatens 50% additional tariffs Global bank regulator group names BoE's Bailey as its next chair Powell quietly made a hawkish pivot, says leading Fed watcher - MarketWatch Why Fed Chair Powell wears purple ties — 'it's not that we are bipartisan, we are nonpolitical' US in direct nuclear talks with Iran, Trump says Exclusive: US Chamber of Commerce considering suing Trump over new tariffs | Fortune Harvard to borrow $750 million after warning of funding threat Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆 on X: "Rand Paul just called Trump a tyrant. 👇 https://t.co/clrmzD4qHo " / X CEOs think the U.S. is 'probably in a recession right now,' says BlackRock's Larry Fink Jamie Dimon sounds the alarm bell on tariffs | CNN Business Well worth a read : Ray Dalio on X: "Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs " / X The monetary/economic order is breaking down The domestic political order is breaking down The international geopolitical world order is breaking down Acts of nature (droughts, floods and pandemics) are increasingly disruptive , and Amazing changes in technology such as AI will be highly impactful to all aspects of life 'This is the Trump recession,' CEOs say: CNBC survey Trump's tariffs insanity begins to fracture the MAGA cult Michael Saylor offers one-word blunt response on market volatility Europe's borders are non-negotiable, says Minister - France in the UK Elon Musk’s DOGE Goons Cause Major Crash to Social Security Site make it stop! Shopify CEO: Prove AI can't do jobs before asking for more headcount

Trump (2012): "I do better in bad markets, I buy things in bad markets'' >> Trump tariffs will push the EU to target the trade imbalances that favor the US (techs) lets hear from EU now FED can cut now! (rent falling and crude sub $60!), circuit breakers in Asia (first time since March 2020), Trump is committing 'economic vandalism' and his Tech Bros kissing the ring on inauguration day are beginning to worry!, self inflicted recession in his hands, Trump losing confidence of business leaders, he calls tariffs 'medicine', big anti Trump rallies across America yesterday, he's also lost credibility with Wall Street , SPX500 (approx 4900) back to 18x earnings from peak 25x, so we are back to much better valuation long-term, Nvidia’s forward PE is about 20 now, etc etc banks absolutely taken to the woodshed (too much debt, risk recession etc) >> Barclays raises FTSE100 to overweight (should begin to hear more calls such as this one, valuations improved greatly etc) The two biggest acts of economic self harm in modern history have been Brexit and Trump 2.0, Warren Buffett calls tariffs an “act of war”, Tech bull Dan Ives slashes PT for Tesla, Apple over Trump's 'tariff armageddon' China's Commerce Ministry Holds Roundtable with 20 #US  Companies incl Tesla, GE Healthcare; Reaffirms Commitment to Reforms, Opening-Up "China has been, is, and will continue to be an ideal, safe, and dynamic investment destination for foreign businesses." ..trolling Trump clearly With Tesla sales plummeting, SpaceX losing deals left and right, and Trump abandoning him, Elon is now advocating for tariff-free trade (he must be off ketamine now!) and the free movement of the workforce between the US and the EU. He knows he bet on the wrong horse, and he is panicking.. Markets : be nimble, opportunities coming to you to add as market valuation come in , volatility will remain, a decent rally of 5% say on a 'delay' with tariffs is possible. SPX valuations came in to now attractive long-term levels! Europe back to low part of 2024 range (beware owned position as always in these type of markets), Asian Eq markets hit hard too, XAG actually rose 5pct from the initial sell-off down to 28.50. Overall USD view, sell rallies post risk-of USD margin demand, soft US recession or worse / US isolated / digital RMD-no SWIFT, GOLD to own, add on a decent dip, JPY looks far too cheap relative to NIKKEI and risk in general (options, 3mo, 20 detla JPYcalls the way) WTI at $60 or lower, there is definitely no 'drill baby drill' action >>> China hasn't imported US LNG in 60 days, the longest streak since Trump's previous trade war  Tariffs are forcing Chinese LNG buyers to resell contracted US shipments to other markets, like Europe (good for EU) Big turnaround: JPMorgan now see Fed cuts at every meeting through January, bringing the top of the funds rate target range down to 3.0%. SIX consecutive cuts. Starting June Hedge funds face biggest margin calls since 2020 amid tariff turmoil, FT reports, that is always the case with part of the leveraged community! China wanting to accelerate stimulus measures to counter US tariffs. The measures are said to be focused on boosting consumption China looking at devaluing the Yuan against the Dollar. Some strategist think they may be looking at a 15 to 30% devaluation in a very short time frame >>> RMB devaluation is the most potent retaliatory weapon Beijing has >> clearly would/will have a huge influence on overall USD view going forward, if it happened Bill Ackman warns Trump to call a timeout on trade war: ‘This is not what we voted for’ Never forget! Ron Smith on X: "Trump (2012): "I do better in bad markets. I buy things in bad markets. You can't do that in a great economy. There's a lot of opportunity I find in the bad times." He's intentionally crashing the economy Credit: @nowthisimpact https://t.co/hgnj3pwNPG " / X You know plenty of them sold stocks in Jan/Feb..., including W Buffet of course, Jamie Dimon and many of the current Trump team... Hedge funds face biggest margin calls since 2020 amid tariff turmoil, FT reports Tech bull Dan Ives slashes PT for Tesla, Apple over Trump's 'tariff armageddon' More on report of China wanting to accelerate stimulus measures to counter US tariffs | Forexlive Trump is losing the confidence of business leaders, billionaire investor Bill Ackman says Bill Ackman warns Trump to call a timeout on trade war: ‘This is not what we voted for’ Anti-Trump protests in cities across US declare 'hands off' Menthor Q on X: "China looking at devaluing the Yuan against the Dollar. Some strategist think they may be looking at a 15 to 30% devaluation in a very short time frame. https://t.co/seY8PQ6WzO " / X Droits de douane aux Etats-Unis : Nouvelle panique sur les Bourses alors que Trump refuse de faire un geste "For every Goliath, there is a David": impeachment of Trump is initiated in Congress | УНН Ukraine-Russia war latest: Macron warns strong action needed if Putin continues to ‘refuse peace’ Europe tries to organize united response to Trump tariffs, but consensus appears challenging | Just The News

Trump (2012): "I do better in bad markets, I buy things in bad markets'' >> Trump tariffs will push the EU to target the trade imbalances that favor the US (techs) lets hear from EU now FED can cut now! (rent falling and crude sub $60!), circuit breakers in Asia (first time since March 2020), Trump is committing 'economic vandalism' and his Tech Bros kissing the ring on inauguration day are beginning to worry!,  self inflicted recession in his hands, Trump losing confidence of business leaders, he calls tariffs 'medicine',   big anti Trump rallies across America yesterday, he's also lost credibility with Wall Street , SPX500 (approx 4900) back to 18x earnings from peak 25x, so we are back to much better valuation long-term, Nvidia’s forward PE is about 20 now, etc etc banks absolutely taken to the woodshed (too much debt, risk recession etc) >> Barclays raises FTSE100 to overweight (should begin to hear more calls such as this one, valuations improved greatly etc) The two biggest acts of economic self harm in modern history have been Brexit and Trump 2.0, Warren Buffett calls tariffs an “act of war”, Tech bull Dan Ives slashes PT for Tesla, Apple over Trump's 'tariff armageddon' China's Commerce Ministry Holds Roundtable with 20 #US  Companies incl Tesla, GE Healthcare; Reaffirms Commitment to Reforms, Opening-Up "China has been, is, and will continue to be an ideal, safe, and dynamic investment destination for foreign businesses." ..trolling Trump clearly With Tesla sales plummeting, SpaceX losing deals left and right, and Trump abandoning him, Elon is now advocating for tariff-free trade (he must be off ketamine now!) and the free movement of the workforce between the US and the EU. He knows he bet on the wrong horse, and he is panicking.. Markets : be nimble, opportunities coming to you to add as market valuation come in , volatility will remain, a decent rally of 5% say on a 'delay' with tariffs is possible. SPX valuations came in to now attractive long-term levels! Europe back to low part of 2024 range (beware owned position as always in these type of markets), Asian Eq markets hit hard too, XAG actually rose 5pct from the initial sell-off down to 28.50. Overall USD view, sell rallies post risk-of USD margin demand, soft US recession or worse / US isolated / digital RMD-no SWIFT, GOLD to own, add on a decent dip, JPY looks far too cheap relative to NIKKEI and risk in general (options, 3mo, 20 detla JPYcalls the way) WTI at $60 or lower, there is definitely no 'drill baby drill' action >>> China hasn't imported US LNG in 60 days,  the longest streak since Trump's previous trade war  Tariffs are forcing Chinese LNG buyers to resell contracted US shipments to other markets, like Europe (good for EU) Big turnaround: JPMorgan now see Fed cuts at every meeting through January, bringing the top of the funds rate target range down to 3.0%. SIX consecutive cuts. Starting June Hedge funds face biggest margin calls since 2020 amid tariff turmoil, FT reports, that is always the case with part of the leveraged community! China wanting to accelerate stimulus measures to counter US tariffs. The measures are said to be focused on boosting consumption China looking at devaluing the Yuan against the Dollar. Some strategist think they may be looking at a 15 to 30% devaluation in a very short time frame >>> RMB devaluation is the most potent retaliatory weapon Beijing has >> clearly would/will have a huge influence on overall USD view going forward, if it happened Bill Ackman warns Trump to call a timeout on trade war: ‘This is not what we voted for’ Goldman Sachs note tonight is titled: “Countdown to Recession.”  “We are lowering our 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raising our 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45% following a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.” >>> This forecast assumes many of the April 9 tariffs don’t take effect. If they do, “we expect to change our forecast to a recession.” Never forget! Ron Smith on X: "Trump (2012): "I do better in bad markets. I buy things in bad markets. You can't do that in a great economy. There's a lot of opportunity I find in the bad times." He's intentionally crashing the economy Credit: @nowthisimpact https://t.co/hgnj3pwNPG " / X You know plenty of them sold stocks in Jan/Feb..., including W Buffet of course, Jamie Dimon and many of the current Trump team... Hedge funds face biggest margin calls since 2020 amid tariff turmoil, FT reports Tech bull Dan Ives slashes PT for Tesla, Apple over Trump's 'tariff armageddon' More on report of China wanting to accelerate stimulus measures to counter US tariffs | Forexlive Trump is losing the confidence of business leaders, billionaire investor Bill Ackman says Bill Ackman warns Trump to call a timeout on trade war: ‘This is not what we voted for’ Anti-Trump protests in cities across US declare 'hands off' Menthor Q on X: "China looking at devaluing the Yuan against the Dollar. Some strategist think they may be looking at a 15 to 30% devaluation in a very short time frame. https://t.co/seY8PQ6WzO " / X Droits de douane aux Etats-Unis : Nouvelle panique sur les Bourses alors que Trump refuse de faire un geste "For every Goliath, there is a David": impeachment of Trump is initiated in Congress | УНН Ukraine-Russia war latest: Macron warns strong action needed if Putin continues to ‘refuse peace’ Europe tries to organize united response to Trump tariffs, but consensus appears challenging | Just The News

Just before the Asian open : White House economic advisor says President Trump is not trying to crash the stock market with tariffs Bessent brushed aside worries about the longer-term effects of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs, Lutnick said a few times 9th April it is, no delay, otherwise talking absolute garbage, but hey, "Companies are double-checking the numbers on planned factories, or halting them altogether.", Ackman, few other CEO's and Musk now turning against Trump's tariffs (could never see this one coming!), WH saying up to 50 countries signing up to zero tariffs, markets pretty shaky, you'd think the market needs a '9th april delay', how on earth can they negotiate this in 1 day, anyhow the most important one is Europe, and it's China they want to hit (but China can hold for years is they want to), EU has a set of countermeasures ready for today, and the US is already preparing a bailout for farmers.. >>> US continues to use the UKR and tariffs sticks, tariffs clearly there to be DEVISIVE, and they would appear to policy not just tactic, but its far too severe policy, pretty absurd, so to be posponed at some point, one would think ! USD will dive the longer this goes on, after the initial 'margin call demand' >>> relative to NIKKEI and risk in general, JPY could head a lot higher in near term (BUY some JPY calls 3months), crossjpys about 1.5% lower so far GOLD hit a 3-4pct last week, Silver hammered 10-15pct (margin call central) - looks reasonable levels to consider again #XAG #SILJ - further stops after open 28.75 silver Crypto hit hard over weekend, just reacting like any risk assets, MSTR overall long is around 68K, getting very dangerous for Saylor ! SPX500 could head down towards 45-4800, (just trading there now after opening in Asia) valuations then would look more in line and attractive relative to europe etc >>> but markets need something positive to initiate a short covering rally, a 1-2-3months delay could do this, be nimble, set you shopping list in single stocks, leave your buy orders in system, stagger them down, funny things happen when big ETF's house see liquidation! Toy prices could jump 50% following Trump’s tariffs on China, Vietnam, it's over kids, we going back to making our own games from here on While the US dithers, China just launched a financial nuke: 16 nations now trade on its digital RMB rails—no SWIFT , no dollar. Faster, cheaper, unstoppable. The old system is already obsolete Lunatic ..Lutnick: "The army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little screws to make iPhones -- that kind of thing is going to come to America." Keir Starmer orders UK economic reset amid Donald Trump’s tariff mayhem PM ready to ditch ‘old assumptions’ and is debating possible changes to fiscal rules to boost growth.... got to get closer to EU Tech bull Dan Ives slashes PT for Tesla, Apple over Trump's 'tariff armageddon' EU enthusiasm for retaliation against the US stands in contrast to its reluctance to confront Russia. Greek oil tanker sales to Putin's shadow fleet are ongoing. The EU looks the other way. Brussels systematically avoids the fights that matter & prefers grandstanding on tariffs/RobinBrooks Marine Le Pen calls her conviction a 'political decision' Germany is considering withdrawing approximately 1,200 tons of gold, valued at around $124 billion, from a U.S. FED vault in NYC due to concerns over Trump’s unpredictable policies Druckenmiller on Tariffs/interview below Everyone says Europe can't compete with America in tech. But Mistral's 'Le Chat' just proved them wrong: • 13x faster than ChatGPT • 100% open-source Ackman : The country is 100% behind the president on fixing a global system of tariffs that has disadvantaged the country. But, business is a confidence game and confidence depends on trust Very well said and accurate ! Shay Boloor on X: "MY OPEN LETTER TO PRESIDENT TRUMP The frustrating part is that I was on board for a reset. Truly. I’ve said it publicly. I’ve written about it in this very feed. I understood the need for a detox. For decades, the U.S. economy played the part of the rich guy at the table -- https://t.co/0s4XppWGnF " / X William Huo on X: "While the US dithers, China just launched a financial nuke: 16 nations now trade on its digital RMB rails—no SWIFT, no dollar. Faster, cheaper, unstoppable. The old system is already obsolete. https://t.co/55tUxBRrpa " / X Treasury’s Bessent Rejects Recession Fears Tied to Tariffs - Barron's The tariffs that led to the biggest stock-market drop since COVID may have been the result of an error - MarketWatch Bailout for farmers caught in Trump’s trade war is being discussed | Fortune Mark Minervini on X: "Druckenmiller on Tariffs. 👇 https://t.co/W5ErCdUx3Z " / X Ole Lehmann on X: "Everyone says Europe can't compete with America in tech. But Mistral's 'Le Chat' just proved them wrong: • 13x faster than ChatGPT • 100% open-source • Completely free (vs $20/month) The European AI breakthrough Silicon Valley didn't see coming 🧵: https://t.co/yFEXMx5h4H " / X Deep Dive on X: "Warren Buffett on Tariffs and how they will affect economy👇 https://t.co/Cw0QHrOeeD " / X Bank of America gives eye-popping Nvidia stock forecast amid tariffs - TheStreet Tech bull Dan Ives slashes PT for Tesla, Apple over Trump's 'tariff armageddon' Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) on X: "Lutnick is a complete joke, the U.S. imports <$3.3 trillion of goods per year and $800 billion of services not $20 trillion. FIRE HIM IMMEDIATELY - embarrassment https://t.co/iwSJQBu8DG " / X Keir Starmer orders UK economic reset amid Donald Trump’s tariff mayhem | Keir Starmer | The Guardian Marine Le Pen calls her conviction a 'political decision' Elon Musk Melts Down at Trump’s Tariff Guru Peter Navarro as Feud Goes Public Bill Ackman on X: "The country is 100% behind the president on fixing a global system of tariffs that has disadvantaged the country. But, business is a confidence game and confidence depends on trust. President @realDonaldTrump has elevated the tariff issue to the most important geopolitical" / X Toy prices could jump 50% following Trump's tariffs on China, Vietnam Germany considers withdrawing 1,200-ton gold stockpile from US in riposte to Trump GOLD STANDARD: Bernier calls for Canada to stockpile gold again CA Vivek Khatri on X: "Singapore PM statement on Tariff!! Must Listen Till End 💯 https://t.co/No9XN0Bpae " / X

MAGA wants isolation, supply chain shock basically (not too dissimilar to Covid), something Bessent called a 'detox', they may well get it full on >>> We may be at the early stages of some kind of tectonic shift in global investment flows, with big decline in demand for U.S. assets from foreign lands (EU, China etc) after the fastest-ever pace of U.S. equity selling by official sector in single month and largest monthly outflow of U.S. assets by private sector investors in a year... #USD in trouble, MAG7 to LAG7 etc Markets : VIX at 28 = about 1.40% average daily move in SPX500, it moved down 4.30% yesterday, that IS quite something, it has NEVER happened before on those vols >> got a little oversold, NFP this afternoon and Jerome Powell talks too (clearly watch what he says in terms of cuts, IMHO he will stay put and not talk too much about cuts, would be sign of panic, for now..). USDollar overall is heading south, sell any rallies still post NFP hopefully/stay short tactically, RISK is the RoW is going full 'anti US products, unreliable partner' etc...and liquidating US assets, repatriating to Europe and elsewhere , clear risk of recession with a big R ....GOLD , but Silver in particular got hammered on long leveraged positioning, F9, margin call etc, EURUSD break properly 1.1250+ and this could get serious for the USD big picture, use options to hedge against a 5-10% 'politically driven-Bessent' move. SPX500 on 18-20 PE = levels around 4800-5000 BREAKING: In a shocking development Canada announces it will build a coalition of countries who share their values to build their economy and trade opportunities and will exclude the United States. “If the U.S. no longer wants to lead, Canada will.” JPMorgan says Donald Trump’s tariffs represent “the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968” and could push the U.S. economy “perilously close to slipping into recession” by driving up inflation and crippling consumer spending >>> Trump could quickly come and do deals with China /TikTok etc. we shall see - market woudl rally quite hard if he does.. #SPX500, watch those news! CHINA-US NEGOTIATIONS LIKELY SOON- CHINESE ADVISORS Trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are likely to start soon given President Donald Trump's penchant for dealmaking, but a quick settlement looks difficult, with China calculating that the U.S. position will be weakened by a deterioration of its economy and markets, Chinese policy advisors told MNI EU Parliament approves delay to climate policies Ever since the DeepSeek moment, we talked about U.S exceptionalism being over... thus U.S assets need to be repriced... >>> now Deutsche Bank says risk of a dollar confidence crisis Trump admin thinks that Trump has the right to fire the Fed Chair and anyone else on the Board of Governors at will/thread US CHALLENGER MARCH JOB CUTS RISE 204.8% Y/Y, US CHALLENGER MARCH JOB CUTS JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2020 >>> No surprise here. Challenger job cut announcements mostly Government DETROIT, April 3 (Reuters) - Stellantis NV, maker of Ram trucks and Jeeps, said on Thursday it was temporarily laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities after President Donald Trump's tariffs were announced, and TESLA.. plans to temporarily lay off 900 workers at five US facilities following President Trump's tariff announcements ...winning? Crude : The OPEC+ flood begins! >>> Oil, copper, silver, copper were all down sharply yesterday as investors price in risk now of 'global recession' , but in many ways it should be contained mostly to the U.S, as the RoW should do better between itself and not be subsidizing the U.S economy anymore.. Trade deficits aren’t caused by foreigners. They’re Made in the USA — because Americans save less than they invest. That gap gets filled with imports/Thread Ontario Bans US Firms from Government Contracts, Dumps Starlink Deal European Union vows countermeasures to Trump tariffs if talks fail, von der Leyen says 4 things to know about Macron’s new ‘second brain’ – POLITICO Merz Gambit: Germany starts historic rearmament - Главком The countries that didn't get tariffs: Russia North Korea Cuba Venezuela Berlarus Somalia Burkina Faso, are, except for Cuba, which abstained, the same countries the US voted together with against the UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine Mario 🇺🇸🇵🇱🇺🇦🇪🇺 on X: "BREAKING from 🇫🇷: France Just Punched Trump in the Wallet. Macron announces a pause on all recent and future investments in the U.S. https://t.co/1DhJAb025n " / X Trump tariffs Day 2 live updates: Layoffs, price hikes tank markets Trump’s Tariffs Were Supposed to Boost the Dollar. Why the Opposite Happened. - WSJ So what is wrong with tis ? Bauncey Chillups on X: "Actually wild Buffett wrote this. https://t.co/mTBDaCRTK3 https://t.co/GH5WdhfFO1 " / X Bill Ackman on X: "My advice to foreign leaders is that if you have not already reached out to President @realDonaldTrump, you need to do so immediately. Trump is, at his core, a dealmaker who sees the world as a series of transactions. Based on his track record to date with foreign" / X This all look a little scripted ? Sarah Longwell on X: "Wanna hear how Republicans talked about tariffs before Trump castrated all of them? https://t.co/HPkAFsR66E " / X Eight OPEC+ producers accelerate crude oil output hikes, pushing oil prices 6% lower Ontario Bans US Firms from Government Contracts, Dumps Starlink Deal Javier Blas on X: "BREAKING: The OPEC+ flood begins! The group is accelerating its oil production hikes, bringing forward to May 1 three-months worth of its previously planned monthly output hikes. In a statement, it said the May increase will be now equal to 411k b/d (rather than 138k b/d) #OOTT https://t.co/hQW2H3KWLP " / X Russian State TV Mocks Donald Trump's 'Psychological Deadline' Remark - Newsweek Deutsche Bank says risk of a dollar confidence crisis EU Parliament approves delay to climate policies | Latest Market News How U.S. soybeans influence global economics Steve Hanke on X: "Today isn’t “Liberation Day” — it’s DOOM LOOP DAY. Trade deficits aren’t caused by foreigners. They’re Made in the USA — because Americans save less than they invest. That gap gets filled with imports. Trade deficits that are easy to finance are good, not bad. https://t.co/vuivK5NS3Z " / X Skanda Amarnath on X: "Trump admin thinks that Trump has the right to fire the Fed Chair and anyone else on the Board of Governors at will. Hoping to get the Supreme Court to undo past precedents accordingly See this Manhattan Institute proposal from Miran (now CEA Chair) & Katz (now Treasury CoS) https://t.co/a8M8icZVUr " / X How America could end up making China great again

Trump’s “Liberation Day” >> liberate the U.S from a strong economy, from its allies, leaking sensitive national security intel and risk it gets totally isolated/global trade war against the U.S.... RoW turns against U.S product and will respond today already (very most likely in a somewhat coordinated fashion)..uncertainty only beginning, volatility brings opportunities though, beware totally bogus/fake tariffs calculations.. >>> Trump ends his speech by saying that we will look back on “Liberation Day” as one of the most important days in American history. He might be right but it is for all the wrong reasons >> earnings reports, outlook guidance will be downgraded , the Man is pushing the U.S into a totally unnecessary recession.. Although Bessent would argue its the plan... (main street vs wallstreet, no Trump put etc) Bessent: equity market selloff is “a Mag7 problem not a MAGA problem”, they all went to kiis the ring, and they go played... >>> he is getting what he wants though, as previously discussed, lower yield, lower crude prices , will be costly (recession) but he is getting there USDollar softer as RoW retaliates and U.S gets isolated Trump just called Russian soldiers “great people” and wants to help them because they’re “losing 2,500 a day.”, no tariffs on Russia, Trump just declared economic war on every country except Russia, Belarus & NK. VdL/EU : EU preparing further countermeasures against U.S. tariffs if negotiations fail China is now restricting local companies from investing in the U.S., China urges the US to "immediately" cancel reciprocal tariffs or they will take "counter-measures." Temasek, Asian state funds to grow their assets by 34% to US$25 trillion by 2030 Pentagon Sends Second Aircraft Carrier to Mideast as Iran Tensions Rise Crude down 3% or so, will be interesting to see what OPEC! does Crypto takes a bath on Trumps engineered trade war Out already... Fed's Kugler warns of prolonged impacts of tariffs on inflation Jeffries: "This is not 'Liberation Day in America,' it's recession day." Carney : I spoke with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum this morning.    In a shifting global economy, strong and reliable partners matter. Canada and Mexico are focused on deepening our trade relations and building stronger economies, together >>> so most countries will react in a similar way and counter attack the U.S ... Trump listed Ecuador as a currency manipulator even though Ecuador’s currency is…the US dollar UBS: "Simple back-of-envelope calculations suggest a permanent implementation of the full set of proposed tariffs would see inflation rise to around 5% as prices adjust to the higher costs of imports." You heard it hear first guys: "The EU is not going to take chicken from America. They are not going to take our lobster or our beautiful strong beef, even though their beef is weak" ...Lutnick.. Sen. Rand Paul responds to Trump's tariffs: "When McKinley most famously put tariffs on in 1890, they lost 50% of their seats… In the early 1930s, we lost the house and senate for 60 years. So not only bad economically, they are bad politically." Mike Pence blasts Trump’s tariffs: “The Trump Tariff Tax is the largest peacetime tax hike in U.S. history…And will cost American families over $3,500 per year” James Surowiecki on X: "Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us. So we" / X James Surowiecki on X: "This is truly amazing. The Deputy White House Press Secretary is claiming that I'm wrong, and that the "tariff rates" on Trump's chart were calculated by "literally" measuring every country's tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. To prove it, he screenshots the formula the USTR https://t.co/g75FreEPbv " / X annmarie hordern on X: "“I wouldn’t try to retaliate,” Treasury @SecScottBessent tells me. “As long as you don’t retaliate this is the high end of the number.” https://t.co/1UGGhVHmMp " / X Ursula von der Leyen on X: "I would like to speak to my fellow Europeans ↓ https://t.co/h00KZ1McsY " / X EU preparing further countermeasures to U.S. tariffs if negotiations fail : EC President von der Leyen Trump tariffs live updates: Trump reveals 'Liberation Day' tariffs across over 150 countries 'Worse than expected': Wall Street reacts to Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff surprise, stocks sink Trump Tariffs Hit Antarctic Islands Inhabited by Zero Humans and Many Penguins | WIRED China restricts investments in the US amid rising tensions - Bloomberg By Investing.com List of Republican Senators Who Voted to Thwart Trump's Canada Tariffs - Newsweek Temasek, Asian state funds to grow their assets by 34% to US$25 trillion by 2030 | South China Morning Post Pentagon Sends Second Carrier to Mideast as Iran Tensions Rise - Bloomberg Meta's AI ambitions suffer a setback - TheStreet Farrukh on X: "Utterly surreal conversation between the Deputy Assistant to President Trump and Victoria Derbyshire If you watch one thing, watch this #Newsnight https://t.co/qWaQTQ0YQ1 " / X DEC: UK charities launch Myanmar Earthquake Appeal